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PiSigma

"the engineer"
I don't think the PLA will undergo any major changes, or that any Japanese prime minister has been much better than Takachi. Japan has never left the PLA's strike list.

I believe the biggest military impact will be Japan purchasing more F-35s and THAAD missiles, and supplying Taiwan with destoryer, that's a foregone conclusion. Beyond that, there's not much Japan can really do, their domestic defense industry is practically in dire straits, with only shipbuilding remaining as a viable sector.

What the PLA needs to do is keep developing its navy, air force, and rocket force, as we're currently seeing in the anti-corruption crackdown is part of that.
What does japan have to supply to Taiwan? People forget both US and Japan won't be able to get rare earth for their MIC. Whatever military gear is built is using stockpiled supply. The amount that can be built is limited, so more for Taiwan means less for themselves.

For China the supply is basically unlimited, since other than iron, everything is self sufficient. That's why China can spam missiles
 

RoastGooseHKer

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yeah. China was the one who strong-armed Japan into the Plaza Accord. China was the one who destroyed Toshiba and the Japanese IC industry. The Japanese for sure are clear-eyed and lucid when it comes to determining who their real enemies are and who they think are their enemies because of perceived superiority. Yep...
Well, Japanese know they cannot fight back against the Americans. But they surely bet that if they could drag USA into a war against China, then another 1905 moment called JIBA. That’s the assumption. Remember, Japan was arguably the biggest winner of the Anglo-Russian Great Game, which ended with Russian defeat in 1905.
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
What does japan have to supply to Taiwan? People forget both US and Japan won't be able to get rare earth for their MIC. Whatever military gear is built is using stockpiled supply. The amount that can be built is limited, so more for Taiwan means less for themselves.

For China the supply is basically unlimited, since other than iron, everything is self sufficient. That's why China can spam missiles
I don't believe rare earth is the panacea. Whether through smuggling or finding alternatives, Japan and US can always assemble some usable weapons.

Mogami-class already has a bit of the feel of a Pacific's FREMM. If Trump truly believes war is coming, he will find a way to replace the Legendary-class with it. Supplying Taiwan is part of the process of mitigating costs and recouping investment. They can't inflict much damage; they just need to use up enough ammunition in the first wave of attacks.
 
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jiajia99

Senior Member
Registered Member
Japan's goal of loosening nuclear restrictions is to obtain permission to build nuclear submarines and potentially host U.S. nuclear warheads; nuclear weapons remain a long-term (but not impossible) objective.

Japanese youth not only lack a concept of the lost 30 years, but also of nuclear weapons. They grew up in an era where most of the survivors were dead, and the memory of nuclear bombings existed only in superficial moralizing (even distorted into anti-defeat rhetoric). They don't actually have much moral burden regarding it. 20 years later, the next generation will be even less resistant.
Depends on if they have another generation to speak of with their falling birth rates and their sugar daddy in deep decline and with neighbors that mostly hate them. Should the Japanese get a little too arrogant, it’s only takes one catastrophic incident to start a sequence of events where China finally takes the gloves off, given that China is working to deprive both Japan and the USA the means to produce these weapons, also note that the people that replace their previous generation are far less competent then their forebearers which considering that will note bode well for these people moving forward. Don’t think China is going to be like Russia when it comes to fighting a neighbor that needs to be punished. China will break the Japanese back when the time comes, that I am confident of, otherwise, why is china continuing the way the are via the cutting off of Japan and the USA resources, the demolishing of their economies and the continued upgrading of their militaries, being soft now doesn’t mean China is retreating in any way
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Subconsciously, I have a feeling Trump is going to seek a war with China before the “end” of his presidency. It may turn 2027 (+ 1 year) into a self fulfilling prophecy. Trump 2.0 is overtly obsessed with creating his legacy in the history books as a major US figure that created a new “US golden age.” Ukraine defeat is inevitable. Iran is not going to be a short and easy war.

There is no support for a long term commitment in Iran (and Ukraine). Either Trump is forced into defeat by ceasefire negotiation or the US fully commits to a war with Iran. Either case tarnishes his legacy and overshadows Venezuela and a Greenland annexation. Leaving the his only legacy pathway forward being a war with China and trying to obtain the independence of the ROC.

Actually, a big part of the rationale for 3 year countdown to war with Japan is that Trump would still be in power at that point, and there is actually a reasonably chance he will TACO out of a direct shooting war with China and leave Japan flapping in the breeze.

Instead Trump could spin his TACO as Trump himself being all for intervention but the glorious Fuhrer was betrayed and sabotaged by enemies within such that he was unable to help Japan. Which will neatly kick off his MAGA takeover of America, ‘suspension’ of democracy and purging of his domestic enemies to pave the way for him to declare himself God-Emperor of America.

History is written by the victors. He can always erect his Great Glorious Golden Firewall and tell future American generations whatever the hell he wants after that.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
What does japan have to supply to Taiwan? People forget both US and Japan won't be able to get rare earth for their MIC. Whatever military gear is built is using stockpiled supply. The amount that can be built is limited, so more for Taiwan means less for themselves.

For China the supply is basically unlimited, since other than iron, everything is self sufficient. That's why China can spam missiles
The problem is, the Japanese RW stooges pretty much like US D.C. stooges, they don´t care about the Taiwanese people, they could care less if they kill a million of people in that island. Is all about pushing China buttons. Until China do a full invasion and when reality sit in they will abandon that island to become another Ukraine. The semiconductor industry destroyed, Taiwan cities destroyed and the quality of life from one the best in Asia to the worst. Then they will be happy and declare a win.
 

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
I was thinking of the same thing. How is it that the US, Israel and the west can do these kind of things so easily while China and even Russia cannot? It is skills? Lack of technology? Lack of will?

I mean a Russian general was shot recently, why couldn't Russia assassinate Ukrainian generals? Lack of will or lack of ability or both?

When Duterte was in power, there was a rebellion happening, suddenly now Marcos is in power, rebellion is not active anymore? Why couldn't China try to fund and activate such rebellion?

Infuriating to see how the west can do it but not China? Just like asml fire they just happened to delay the euv machine.
Putin thanked UAE leader with phone call about arresting the person. now there is coverage in RT Arabic. Previously Putin transport minister died in a car. This Ukranian born general highly likely in violation of this rule and Putin take this thing seriously that leader should set example and Putin himself surrounded by that Green and White to emphasis important part of the culture.
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He also expressed special thanks for their congratulations from Anton Vaino, Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, and Valentina Matviyenko, Chairperson of the Federation Council.
On June 28, the wedding of 17-year-old Adam Kadyrov, who serves as Secretary of the Chechen Security Council, took place in Akhmat-Yurt. The regional governor previously
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that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally congratulated him and his family on his son's wedding via phone call.

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MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
The problem is, the Japanese RW stooges pretty much like US D.C. stooges, they don´t care about the Taiwanese people, they could care less if they kill a million of people in that island. Is all about pushing China buttons. Until China do a full invasion and when reality sit in they will abandon that island to become another Ukraine. The semiconductor industry destroyed, Taiwan cities destroyed and the quality of life from one the best in Asia to the worst. Then they will be happy and declare a win.
This. This is pretty obvious.

Japan so clearly doing this at the behest of the US.

The US would like nothing more than to have Japan, Phillipines and Taiwan fight with China

China's coastal cities can be attacked, trade would stop, China would never be able to catch up to the US in that scenario.

They would love to get Japan to rearm, and they have controlled the election process so much that Japan can now try to rearm.

Then when japan and Philippines are ready, they will likely make the Taiwan govt declare Independence, making China automatically wage war on Taiwan.

China is not yet powerful enough to embargo Japan or Taiwan. And the US will make sure to make Taiwan declare Independence when the US is ready, not China

I think China is trying really hard to move manufacturing inland.

Also to increase consumption as much as possible

I believe they will continue to just build up their strength, and when war comes, make sure it's limited to a focused military conflict with overwhelming force. Making it extremely costly for Japan or Phillipines to join in with Taiwan.

They will probably wait out Japan. Japan's fundamentals are weaker than china right now. It will likely get weaker over time especially with taikachi's economic plan.

I suspect that if Taiwan declares independence in 2027, China wouldn't directly attack the island right away. They are hoping the next election that the KMT would be in power but I'm not sure if the US would allow that.

The issue is that with the trump deals and tariffs Japan and Taiwan sells less to the US, block Russian energy, making their costs higher, selling less to the US, their economies will not be as strong over time and thus China will try to wait them out. That's my guess
 

Chevalier

Major
Registered Member
First I think we must ask the question: does the west deserve a new life.
One things for sure, they cannot be allowed to dictate terms to the world. The Anglo five eyes must be reduced in that they should be expelled back to Europe proper and the remaining four territories be given over to China. Only then can Anglos predation be resolved.


japanese remilitarisation is guaranteed as the Epstein files show, they want more tribalism in the world as the U.S. is forced to retreat and retrench as it declines.

However, I suspect that the U.S. doesn’t really intend to retreat unless made to do so, it’s using Japan like Australia ie makijg Japan prop up its defence industry via AUKUS and intending on using Japanese soldiers to fight its war, these Anglo Jewish cannibals tend to use the same ppl to fight the same ppl and getting East Asian Japanese to fight Chinese is no different to getting Slavic Ukrainians to fight Russians. Let all these goy cattle serve the chosen people, so to speak.


Excellent opportunity for the Chinese signals and EW ship to guide Iranian missiles to these bombers and blunt the Anglo American nuclear triad, just as the U.S. attacked and destroyed Russian nuclear bombers.
 
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tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Japan so clearly doing this at the behest of the US.
They think they are doing at the behest of the US but US only care about themselves. So they are just useful idiots.
The US would like nothing more than to have Japan, Phillipines and Taiwan fight with China
The US know that Japan, Philippines and Taiwan couldn´t hold themselves more than a week before becoming sitting ducks. The issue is pushing China buttons and antagonize China in every issue. don´t think otherwise.
China's coastal cities can be attacked, trade would stop, China would never be able to catch up to the US in that scenario.
China coastal line is gigantic and any attacker will deplete their arsenal before doing any real damage, it will require nuclear weapons. China retaliatory arsenal in the other hand is gigantic and can hit almost any place in Asia, those countries are smaller in territory so the damage will be amplify significantly. So any fight with China has to be done without hitting Chinese territory so doesn´t escalate into a retaliatory attack against the attacker.
They would love to get Japan to rearm, and they have controlled the election process so much that Japan can now try to rearm.
Japan can do whatever they want. They only thing they will get is less security, force China to develop more weapons and strain at already strained US military
Then when japan and Philippines are ready, they will likely make the Taiwan govt declare Independence, making China automatically wage war on Taiwan.
Sadly, the Taiwan would go from the richest places in Asia to poorest. >Stooges don´t care about the Taiwanese.
 
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