Fertility rate doesn't matter, what matters is the number of births. With official births around 9 million, with life expectancy of 80 years, this number of births is only enough for 720 million people. And this number of births has been going down fast. The number of births decreased by 50% since mid 2010s, if things don't change the number of births might collapse even lower.
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Fertility rate doesn't matter, what matters is the number of births. With official births around 9 million, with life expectancy of 80 years, this number of births is only enough for 720 million people. And this number of births has been going down fast. The number of births decreased by 50% since mid 2010s, if things don't change the number of births might collapse even lower.
9.56 million, basically an entire nation. To feed, to educate and to employ. Every single year. And worse if the number for some reason increase.
Firstly, that number is heavily disputed on Zhihu, but let's take that number on face value.
Second, that number is enough only to sustain half of China's current population
Third, US and Europe both had around 3.5 million births each, Add in Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc and you are almost reaching that amount of births.
Fourth, these countries in the West are able to attact the best talents from around the world, as well as quite a big number of immigrants.
Fifth, the births are still on the decreasing trend. They halved in last 10 years, and might half again unless drastic action is taken.
Sixth, now what will you even think about India's 20 million + births. The births are 2.5 times that of China, and India's per capita GDP currently is 1/5th of China. Even India makes zero progress on per capita performance, India's GDP and other metrics will all be within 1/2 of China already. And there's quite a lot of reason to believe that India might bring its per capita performance from 1/5 to 1/2 that of China.
The thing is that you guys are taking the best case scenarios for China for granted. I am saying that leave alone the worse case scenario, even a little bit of underperformance or some assumptions breaking would bring China in severe distress.
Europe's strategy: if you don't know what you're doing, neither does your enemy.
Europe's reality: everyone knows what Europe's doing except Europe.
Case in point, China already setup replacement fab before Europe knew the Dutch wants to steal Nexperia's European fab.
Know your place slave.
The thing about the west, specifically the anglo five eyes is that because they committed genocide and horrendous Nazi tier crimes against humanity, they as a people, collective and elites would much rather forget it so they carry on with a sense of historical amnesia. The price of this amnesia is they disconnect themselves from their roots hence why you have so many Anglo men trying to create a new sense of identity via white supremacism and white nationalism.
Israel is in the early stages of this process where they need to genocide the natives first then breed their own populations who can in turn claim moral superiority and being above any sort of historical grievances like the nagorno karabakh conflict.
Zhihu is social media so meaningless
OK, so what?
Talents are minority of people, people in those countries don't want immigrants, they don't want to see native population being replace by Indians for example. Also the ship of Theseus apply here, if the majority "White" Germanic British population in the US becomes a low minority, will the US still be the US? Would Silicon Valley still work as use to do? Do these immigrants will enable policies that benefit the US or their home country?
Good for them, I hope in the age of AI when almost all service jobs worldwide are going to be automated they still find ways to keep their vast population employed. especially young, who for some reason don't like the idea of not having money.
China is still struggling to provide jobs for its population. The youth unemployment rate is too high. It still has hukou system of population control to prevent big cities from getting too crowded. So, there is not enough political pressure on China to raise birth rate. The people are actually fed up with too much competition.
So, the first priority for China is still to increase GDP per capita, provide enough high quality jobs. Once there is abundance instead of shortage and less competition for limited number of jobs, then you will start to see measure by the CCP to boost birth rates. It will start with positive incentives like more money for child care and such, but then more punishments will start to come as well, such as penalties for not having any children including demotion in jobs and so on.
Stop derailing the thread. Any further discussion on demographics will be deleted
UAE + Israel vs Saudi. Support for opposing groups in Yemen. Saudi trying to preserve Yemen's unity; UAE + Israel trying to break Yemen apart. Here, it's the UAE backed group that has gained control of a key Yemeni city.