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MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
jli88 said:
Japan is not unique, it's just ahead. Demographic crisis that China is going to face shortly is going to be far more severe than Japan. And China is so large that there aren't enough countries that can even supply it enough immigrants.
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False attribution. You think Japan's woes are only due to its low birth rate? It's due to the fall out from the plaza accords, and they never recovered. Their industries failed to be competitive after the real estate bubble burst, which was a result of the currency changes from the plaza accords. They're government allowed US companies to steal their tech secrets and made them limit exports.

Trying to bring in birth rates at the main cause is disingenuous.
 
J

jli88

Junior Member
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
The fertility numbers I mostly see come from twitter no from real sources. Basically from stooges. Real fertility numbers are more difficult to calculate than just a child per every women. China still putting an entire nation every single year.
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I am not picking anything from twitter. Go to Zhihu if you want, there most people believe that the birth numbers are cooked up higher by the stats bureau. Maybe I can post 10 sample answers if you want.

Given that the smallest country has a population less than a 1000, that's no big deal. What matters is can the births replace the current population? Can the births increase the population? Are the births enough to sustain a state's geopolitical ambitions/goals.

MortyandRick said:
False attribution. You think Japan's woes are only due to its low birth rate? It's due to the fall out from the plaza accords, and they never recovered. Their industries failed to be competitive after the real estate bubble burst, which was a result of the currency changes from the plaza accords. They're government allowed US companies to steal their tech secrets and made them limit exports.

Trying to bring in birth rates at the main cause is disingenuous.
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Have you read my conversation, I was just replying to a comment which was 50% about Japan's demographics problems.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
tokenanalyst said:
The problem with the Europeans is because the Russo-Ukrainian war the lost a big source of cheap energy now their industry is becoming uncompetitive, putting "Trump like" tariffs will only make things worse because the industries they have still depend on supplies from China, that is not counting on retaliation from China on raw materials and still will be useless because Chinese companies will just reroute their trade.
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Well, if we are being honest, the Ukraine war didn’t and needn’t have disrupted Europe’s energy lifeline to Russia. Even the CIA bombing Nordstream wouldn’t have stopped that if the Europeans government wanted it. If the EU can continue arms shipments to Israel as they are doing a literally genocide in front of the world’s cameras, they could have continued buying Russian oil despite Ukraine if they wanted to.

The Americans staged a coup in Ukraine and literally said, fuck the EU. The Ukraine war was a direct consequence of that American move, just as an American SMO would be inevitable if China or Russia staged a coup in Canada or Mexico to put in power rabidly anti-American leaders in power and start arming the newly couped state up for war.

Washington’s useful idiots in charge of the EU might as well have made ‘fuck the EU’ their new prime directive, as every single one of the major decisions they have taken since would have made perfect sense if you said they were done to fuck the EU over, including this new moronic idea to threaten China with a Trump style trade war.
 
Jiang ZeminFanboy

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
The fertility numbers I mostly see come from twitter no from real sources. Basically from stooges. Real fertility numbers are more difficult to calculate than just a child per every women. China still putting an entire nation every single year.
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It's true that TFR numbers provided besides census years are not from directly Chinese bureau of statistics, but calculated by demographers including Chinese ones. However we have relatively fresh data from 2020 directly from Chinese government (census 2020). It was 12 millions births and TFR was provided as 1.3

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"China recorded 12 million births in 2020, marking a drop for the fourth consecutive year, while some Chinese demographers warned that China’s number of newborns is likely to drop to below 10 million in a few years, and if no forceful intervention policy is introduced, China’s fertility rate may become the lowest in the world.

The number of newborns in China in 2020 was down from 14.65 million in 2019, and China’s total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.3, a relatively low level, according to the results of the seventh national population census released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. "

Now in recent years births have fallen to 9 and 9.5 million. It should be pretty close to the numbers provided by demographers which put China TFR at about 1.1
 
T

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
jli88 said:
I am not picking anything from twitter. Go to Zhihu if you want, there most people believe that the birth numbers are cooked up higher by the stats bureau. Maybe I can post 10 sample answers if you want.

Given that the smallest country has a population less than a 1000, that's no big deal. What matters is can the births replace the current population? Can the births increase the population? Are the births enough to sustain a state's geopolitical ambitions/goals.
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Basically yes, older people die, sadly and are being replaced by younger people every single year at a relative big nation rate and the death rate is mostly high due, believe or not, Covid. Just 20% of a single generation of males can replace the entire PLA every single year. And the worst or best depending who you ask, is that percentage of births/1000 could increase in the coming years due harsh policies and percentage of deaths/1000 could decrease due better healthcare. The downside is that if the younger population increase unemployment is likely to go higher due China push to Automation.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
jli88 said:
Japan is not unique, it's just ahead. Demographic crisis that China is going to face shortly is going to be far more severe than Japan. And China is so large that there aren't enough countries that can even supply it enough immigrants.
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LOL No. China has a population that is 10X greater than Japan so its buffer is 10X greater, with a government that has much stronger tools for directing the population. Your "more severe than Japan" garbage comes from a straight line extrapolation decades down the line, which is basically an exercise in futility. Japan has no life vigor since being defeated militarily, then economically and currently occupied by the US. China fights for goals and has direction and purpose; it also has many events and trends in the future that are all oppertunities for upward adjustment of the fertility rate. In general, when the West has been supplanted by Chinese power on the global stage, work pressure drops, and coupled with improvements in technology to reduce labor, life quality will increase. More time, less work, nation coming into the world throne are a recipe for higher TRF. None of that is applicable to Japan but fully applicable to China.
 
J

jli88

Junior Member
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
Basically yes, older people die, sadly and are being replaced by younger people every single year at a relative big nation rate and the death rate is mostly high due, believe or not, Covid. Just 20% of a single generation of males can replace the entire PLA every single year. And the worst or best depending who you ask, is that percentage of births/1000 could increase in the coming years due harsh policies and percentage of deaths/1000 could decrease due better healthcare. The downside is that if the younger population increase unemployment is likely to go higher due China push to Automation.
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China is currently facing the combined West (Anglos + Europe + Japan/SoKo) + India + other anti-China countries (like Mongolia, Vietnam, etc.)

In my opinion, they should have focused on increasing rather than decreasing population. But alas.

People are required not just for the PLA, you need them for your basic economy, R&D, industry, consumption etc.
 
T

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Jiang ZeminFanboy said:
It's true that TFR numbers provided besides census years are not from directly Chinese bureau of statistics, but calculated by demographers including Chinese ones. However we have relatively fresh data from 2020 directly from Chinese government (census 2020). It was 12 millions births and TFR was provided as 1.3

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"China recorded 12 million births in 2020, marking a drop for the fourth consecutive year, while some Chinese demographers warned that China’s number of newborns is likely to drop to below 10 million in a few years, and if no forceful intervention policy is introduced, China’s fertility rate may become the lowest in the world.

The number of newborns in China in 2020 was down from 14.65 million in 2019, and China’s total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.3, a relatively low level, according to the results of the seventh national population census released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. "

Now in recent years births have fallen to 9 and 9.5 million. It should be pretty close to the numbers provided by demographers which put China TFR at about 1.1
Click to expand...
Closer to 1.5 in 2024, but that number means nothing. that is dividing the number of births/number of women or some esoteric twitter crap. Do you want girls below 20 having children? do women above 50 have children? What matters is the percentage of births vs the percentage of deaths. how many people a country can put a year, how many of those can be feed. How many of those can have a guarantee job, how many of those can serve in the military and so on.
 
J

jli88

Junior Member
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
Closer to 1.5 in 2024, but that number means nothing. that is dividing the number of births/number of women or some esoteric twitter crap. Do you want girls below 20 having children? do women above 50 have children? What matters is the percentage of births vs the percentage of deaths. how many people a country can put a year, how many of those can be feed. How many of those can have a guarantee job, how many of those can serve in the military and so on.
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Fertility rate doesn't matter, what matters is the number of births. With official births around 9 million, with life expectancy of 80 years, this number of births is only enough for 720 million people. And this number of births has been going down fast. The number of births decreased by 50% since mid 2010s, if things don't change the number of births might collapse even lower.
 
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