Miscellaneous News

Nevermore said:

What concerns me is how this situation will play out. China has already raised the stakes significantly, but if Japan fails to respond, China risks creating an awkward stalemate. This would likely be followed by the anticipated prolonged freeze in Sino-Japanese relations. That said, Japan's controversial remarks do provide China with justification for more assertive actions. It's akin to former U.S. House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which gave China grounds to cross the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

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You are missing the whole point. This isn’t about getting Japan to change course as you have to be the biggest optimist alive to think they can or even want to.

It’s precisely because China knows Japan cannot change course and will absolutely follow daddy America into a hot war with China that it is starting to deindustrialising Japan now.

Japan has volunteered as the proverbial chicken, and frankly, China has been praying for them to offer themselves up to be made an example of like this.

China using this opportunity to put a spotlight on the worst aspects of Japanese society, and using that as justification for ever more harsher economic punishment of Japan will seem fully justified to much of Asia, and even the west will be hard pressed to sell this as Chinese bullying. Certainly it would be far harder compared to say China taking the Philippines to task for example.

And unlike the Philippines, the Japanese could make a substantial, material contribution to a potential future America war effort against China. And deindustrialising Japan will be far more beneficial to China that doing the same to the EU.

If anything, I think the Dutch and rest of the EU owes Japan a massive favour, as I think Beijing was preparing to use the EU as the chicken due to Dutch lunacy until the Japanese decided to get suicidal.

China is allowing chips exports again to the EU to prevent the meltdown of their industrial production because it doesn’t want to fight a two front fight unnecessarily. It’s letting the EU off lightly, but it still holds all the cards to re-strangle EU manufacturing basically any time it wants. So the EU is going to be have to be real careful about how it response to China turning the screws on Japan economically.

It is precisely because China wants to deindustrialise Japan that I think it will try to limit military escalation, at least in the short term. It will first apply economic pressure, and then it might move on to sanctions, including secondary sanctions to isolate Japan and make their friends and cheerleaders reluctant to offer actual real material support and instead just limit their support to empty talk.

I don’t think China will touch the military aspects until it is really to actually throw down. This is because China wants to continue to build the narrative that it is Japan that is threatening China, so too much military muscle flexing by the PLA will undermine that message.

It’s very smart for the Chinese foreign ministry to frame this as ww2 imperial Japan rearing its ugly head as the US and the rest of the P5 depend on their victory and glory from ww2 to legitimise their privileged position within the UN. In fact this privilege of conquering the defeated axis powers is also the reason why India wants in on the P5 since they have a laundry list of neighbouring states they want to invade and expand.

A corollary to this UN law is that NATO Article V cannot respond:

Chevalier said:

It’s very smart for the Chinese foreign ministry to frame this as ww2 imperial Japan rearing its ugly head as the US and the rest of the P5 depend on their victory and glory from ww2 to legitimise their privileged position within the UN. In fact this privilege of conquering the defeated axis powers is also the reason why India wants in on the P5 since they have a laundry list of neighbouring states they want to invade and expand.

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By framing it like this, it also leaves the door wide open for Russia to join the party as another successor state to one of the original WWII principle victors.

While some might scoff at what the Russia military might bring to the table, but geography alone means it can make a massively powerful contribution. As well as the political and diplomatic benefits of having another great power second China’s position.

Russia gains from potentially finally getting somewhere for a naval base that isn’t frozen over half the time and isn’t easily bottled up. As well as weapons and industrial support from China, which it can redirect to Ukraine if thats still not won by then.

Google translated

Minister Karremans doubted after just one day whether intervention at Nexperia was worthwhile.

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Some members of Japanese opposition party seem calling the PM to resign

Overbom said:

Given that China is certain that Japan will intervene in Taiwan AR operation, it would seem prudent for China to utilize this economic downturn of Japan to further push it down economically and thus reduce its war potential

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I think there is an arguable position where China should only initiate AR to the point of forcing Japaneses then US involvement, preferably managed and staggered, but not actually complete AR until all other objective has been reached. In the mean time it would be in China's interest to weaken US and Japaness military significantly, but not so much so that they would choose to not resist AR. The outcome with maximal gain is not completing AR but one where US and Japan got involved and were defeated.

Everyone thinks PLA's amphibious assault force is built for Taiwan, but Ryukyu is actually a much easier and more impactful target, after all Taiwan is already in the bag, it would be much harder to justify neutralizing and occupying the first and second island chains without US and Japan putting them up for contention via resisting AR. Taiwan is actually a very small problem to solve, if China want to solve the bigger Japan problem, the Korean problem and the American problem, it would actually be much more difficult if Taiwan has been solved.

4Tran said:

Nah, Japan will retract it as soon as they're willing to sacrifice Takaichi's dignity. The powerbrokers in Japan already know that she made a huge mistake, but because she's still popular they can't do anything about it yet. That popularity isn't going to last because she can't do anything to fix Japan's problems, and things there are just going to get worse as China's response ramps up.

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Funny thing is she is part of the LDP, the watered down version of the current populist and growing in popularity Sanseito party, especially among youth under 35. This is the cohort that has suffered the most with the ridiculous Abenomic reflation policy with zero growth in wages or jobs. This is the same situation as if hypothetically Meatball Ron Desantis had somehow won with his off-brand MAGA but the real MAGA threat of Trump is still waiting in the wings. People will want the real deal soon enough. She's got a rapidly coming expiration date...

Edit: Wanted to add that Sanseito is a huge threat to the US since they have the ultimate goal of expelling US military presence. If Grinch Face causes more damage to the LDP and more favorability of Sanseito, she becomes a huge liability to the US as well. That is a very DANGEROUS position for her to be in. Specifically I'm referring to her idiotic economic policies of continuing and expanding Abenomics, not anti-China or anti-immigrant policy, as those overlap with Sanseito. Though if she enacts the the anti-China and anti-immigrant policies incompetently, she might face derision domestically as well.

tamsen_ikard said:

Anyone who has some knowledge about Geopolitics will know Ukraine will never accept this deal. This playbook has been played before. Trump comes up with a deal Ukraine will never accept, Ukraine and EU reject it, then they have a few meetings and convince Trump that yes Ukraine deserves more support, then Trump warns Russia to agree to ceasefire or face sanctions, Russia keeps going, US then sends weapons to Ukraine again, rinse and repeat.

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Knowledge of geopolitics not sufficient for understanding Ukraine when Soft Power is involved.
Russia can make Ukraine accept peace deal by withdrawing from Israeli deal. Trump is new variable who has better understanding of Royals and that was the reason for US/Russia meetings in Riyadh so Saudi can convey there expectations without any mistranslation.
This time MBS visit to Trump was about AI. In 1945 Saudi king in alliance with US liberate and kept afloat global south. Now this thing is going to be reversed for this there will be additional AI and hard power that Russia is developing and Ukraine is practical demonstration foremost for the Royals. within last few days several southern Russian cities have announced flights to Saudi. This acceleration of trend.
Obviously they will not announce real strategy but RT arabic live coverage has enough hints. like this Su-35 has all capabilities to prevent Ukranian air force from takeoff. but it does not mean it will always use that capability. This is closest to realistic control environment.

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November 19, 2025
I'd like to thank our partner in the Artificial Intelligence Alliance, Kirill Dmitriev, and the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), who carried out a tremendous amount of international work to organize all of this. Kirill personally contributed greatly to this. I'd like to say a huge thank you, Kirill, to you and your organization. Without your participation, we probably wouldn't have achieved this international partnership.

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Russian Ministry of Defense: Su-35s on duty in the Avdiivka area are preventing the enemy from even taking off.​

As the military department clarified, any aerial target attempting to take off will be immediately detected and destroyed.

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After all the secrecy, the Americans suddenly feel the need to tell the world all about their nonexistent F-47 numbers and specs, and the F-47 itself seems to be doing lots of texting. It is a sentient being! Kinda fun to watch the Americans panic like that. They are mass producing more F-47 articles than lawn mowers. They are telling us they have logged hundreds of flight hours on the NGAD. In other words, don't believe the videos coming out of China. Believe what we tell you to believe. We are still the superior mayonnaise KKK race and no one will beat us.

iBBz said:

After all the secrecy, the Americans suddenly feel the need to tell the world all about their nonexistent F-47 numbers and specs, and the F-47 itself seems to be doing lots of texting. It is a sentient being! Kinda fun to watch the Americans panic like that. They are mass producing more F-47 articles than lawn mowers. They are telling us they have logged hundreds of flight hours on the NGAD. In other words, don't believe the videos coming out of China. Believe what we tell you to believe. We are still the superior mayonnaise KKK race and no one will beat us.

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I kinda miss when the US actually was intimidating back when "black projects" actually meant something. It was actually pretty scary when the B-2 and F-117 project existences were vehemently denied with a slight wink by the US government and then all of a sudden one day they appeared to the public and within a year were successfully causing havoc on US enemies. Nowadays, they don't have that aura and as a result of declining material power, they have to rely on an Indian-esque strategy of non-stop bluster and chest puffing. Kinda pathetic when considering where they were a few short decades ago.