Miscellaneous News

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fatzergling

Junior Member
Registered Member
Breadbox said:
I don't know why people even bring up Peter Zeihan, he's a Gordon Chang tier troll and the new Copemaster in town. He filled a psychological niche of "everything is going to be alright" at a time where US morale is in the gutters. Any conclusion he makes should be completely ignored, period, the only reason he get some attention is because he brought sound discussion points which got people's attention first, then flips into wishful thinking mode and use it to assert the stupidest conclusion. He's a complete fraud in the same level as Gordon Chang in the early 2000s, I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes increasing unhinged divorced from reality as time goes on like Gordon Chang does.
He is in every sense of the word, a Comfort man.
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Don't insult the great hero of the motherland Gordon Chang! His magnificent work in trolling the USG deserves nothing more than a 友谊勋章!
 
T

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Stierlitz said:
The US economy expanded an annualized 2.4% qoq in the second quarter of 2023, higher than 2% in the previous period and way above market expectations of 1.8%, the advance estimate showed. Nonresidential fixed investment accelerated sharply (7.7% vs 0.6%), led by a rebound in equipment (10.8% vs -8.9%) and intellectual property products (3.9% vs 3.1%). Also, private inventories added 0.14 percentage points to the growth (vs -2.14 in Q1). On the other hand, consumer spending slowed sharply (1.6% vs 4.2%) but still, overshot market estimates as inflation eased but the labor market remained tight. While consumption of goods slowed sharply (0.7% vs 6%), spending on services remained strong (2.1% vs 3.2%). Also, public expenditure increased at a much softer pace (2.6% vs 5%) and net trade weighed down on the growth by subtracting 0.12 percentage points as exports were down 10.8% and imports dropped at a smaller 7.8%. Residential investment continued to decline (-4.2% vs -4%).

source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analys

Sadly it seems that U.S. economy will have much stronger growth in 2023. than most financial institutions have forecasted at the beginning of the year ...
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Let me see if I get this. China growth accelerate almost 2% from 4.5 to 6.3% and Western mainstream goes in a frenzy of gloom and doom about China. US grow accelerate 0.6% from 1.8 to 2.4% and mainstream journos a trowing a party.
 
S

Stierlitz

Junior Member
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
Let me see if I get this. China growth accelerate almost 2% from 4.5 to 6.3% and Western mainstream goes in a frenzy of gloom and doom about China. US grow accelerate 0.6% from 1.8 to 2.4% and mainstream journos a trowing a party.
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They are throwing a party because the way things are heading Chinese GDP will be much closer to official 5% target than most have anticipated. On the other hand, U.S. will most likely grow ~2% in 2023. despite most financial institutions forecasting <1 % growth at the beginning of the year. Oh well, we'll see what the second half will bring.
 
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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Stierlitz said:
They are throwing a party because the way things are heading Chinese GDP will be much closer to official 5% target than most have anticipated. On the other hand, U.S. will most likely grow ~2% in 2023. despite most financial institutions forecasting <1 % growth at the beginning of the year. Oh well, we'll see what the second half will bring.
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I have a conspiracy theory here, they always forecast higher for China expecting lower and they forecast lower for the US expecting higher. So investor feel more confident putting their money here and no elsewhere. "Look the grass is always greener over here".
either way is a weird situation for the FED.
 
E

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Stierlitz said:
The US economy expanded an annualized 2.4% qoq in the second quarter of 2023, higher than 2% in the previous period and way above market expectations of 1.8%, the advance estimate showed. Nonresidential fixed investment accelerated sharply (7.7% vs 0.6%), led by a rebound in equipment (10.8% vs -8.9%) and intellectual property products (3.9% vs 3.1%). Also, private inventories added 0.14 percentage points to the growth (vs -2.14 in Q1). On the other hand, consumer spending slowed sharply (1.6% vs 4.2%) but still, overshot market estimates as inflation eased but the labor market remained tight. While consumption of goods slowed sharply (0.7% vs 6%), spending on services remained strong (2.1% vs 3.2%). Also, public expenditure increased at a much softer pace (2.6% vs 5%) and net trade weighed down on the growth by subtracting 0.12 percentage points as exports were down 10.8% and imports dropped at a smaller 7.8%. Residential investment continued to decline (-4.2% vs -4%).

source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analys

Sadly it seems that U.S. economy will have much stronger growth in 2023. than most financial institutions have forecasted at the beginning of the year ...
Click to expand...
Correct me in case I'm wrong but, what this is saying is that:
  • Imports and exports both declined
  • Residential purchases declined
  • Sharp reduction in consumption growth
  • Sharp reduction in public expenditure growth
  • Equipment and intellectual property investments grew, but the latter not that much compared to the previous quarter
So basically, the only sector that is growing quickly - with a near 20% increase compared to the first quarter - is businesses buying equipment?

Why, when imports, exports, and consumption are ALL down?

Can't help but think this is a result of the subsidies the US government is giving out to encourage "building at home." So in essence, the only reason the US isn't in a recession is because of printing more money and spending it on building factories that may never be profitable.

So much for criticizing the Chinese government for infrastructure spending when ever the economy is slow - the US is doing the same.
 
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