It's been awhile keeping up with the forum. So on Sunday morning, seeing this:
Here are some coffee-induced thoughts on the video.
The title is consistent with MSM China bashing. Let me cut the chase, "China's Looming Crises" are looming, while US/EU crises are here and now.
Three growing problems China is facing from the video
- Real estate
- Semiconductor
- Youth unemployment
China has been living in a "real estate bubble" for more than 10 years. Shanghai is my hometown and I go back often. So I should know. Every Chinese with a normal money brain have known this for years in that, sooner or later, the residential real estate development would become unsustainable. In my observation and judgement, this "real estate bubble" was planted during the Jiang administration and blown up during the Hu administration. By the time Xi took over in 2013, the so-called "land fiscal" local government income model became dangerously addictive and unsustainable. The question has alway been when/how not if since then. Long story short, this current phase of real estate "crisis" was government actively induced. The primary objective is to prick the bubble before the issue pricks the government or society later. And this Chinese "real estate crisis" is fundamentally different from US real estate crises before (2008 coming to mind). In short, China residential real estate and US stock market are heterogeneous twins in terms of personal wealth generation and preservation.
China does not have a semiconductor crises per se. China bought into this globalization and supply-chain pecking order until US started the trade/tech wars on China. Since then, China was forced into its survival mode and started domestication of the semiconductor supply-chain. The funny thing on this item is that this would still be a propaganda subject right after the mass-production of 9000s in Mate 60 Pro and 9010 in Pura 70 Pro.
China youth unemployment rate is high in comparison to the US, the only comparable economy (and scale) on this planet. There are a few unique contributing factors that don't exist in the US.
(1) China's little emperors
Since China started single-child policies late 1980s, majority of children born after 2000s are single child of 2 parents plus 4 grand parents, which were called Gen Z in the US. Those kids have more financial backing than their US peers. There is a running joke in China nowadays: China Gen Z are teaching their companies boss how to treat employees. Those kids are no longer willing to take hard-labor low-pay jobs of their parents. I give you on real-world example why they can do that. One of my young relative in Shanghai has the inheritance rights of 5 apartments in Shanghai, who did not go to college. Well, no surprise, his net worth would allow me to retire in California right now, which I cannot afford right now.
(2) China private plot land (自留地)
This is a unique social welfare feature in Chinese rural populations. For those rural kids who cannot find jobs in cities, they can survive without government rescue. Life would be hard, but one can survive.
(3) Transition to urbanization is not yet completed
China urban residents counted around 64% in 2023. But many residents are new comers, which means they came to the cities from their rural home towns. It is common in Chinese cities that the divide of haves versus have-nots is predominantly generation locals versus new comers. For vast majority of new comers, the employment pressure is lot higher from living costs. Therefore, freedom of choices for jobs is limited in comparison to generation locals
So let me take a pause here on responding to that propaganda video piece. There is no journalistic quality per se. What makes me puzzled is that, while US is undergoing general election cycle with lots of urgent domestic issues, propaganda people still have that kind of time and energy to "care" about "China's Looming Crises". My message: 管你屁事!