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plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The GDP fall figures were confusing and counter-intuitive because western conservative governments where all cherry picking ways to present the most shocking number to manipulate their populations into agreeing to lift lock downs when everyone knew it was still way too early to safely do so.
 
R

Red Moon

Junior Member
manqiangrexue said:
No I don't think so. A 37% drop is year-on-year. It is compared to 2019 Q2, NOT 2020 Q1, which would be quarter on quarter. I can see the US playing with that so when Q3 comes out at a 10% drop from 2019 Q3, they'll play it off like a 27% recovery from Q2 or something like that. But those numbers are all supposed to be year-on-year.
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Chinese figures are usually year-on-year, not American ones. In any case, one can tell because of the word "annualized", which is unnecessary for year-on-year figures.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Red Moon said:
Chinese figures are usually year-on-year, not American ones. In any case, one can tell because of the word "annualized", which is unnecessary for year-on-year figures.
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I don't think so. You believe that American GDP figures are always compared to the last quarter? I'm not an economist, but I really doubt that because then seasonal fluctuations like holiday shopping will always make the next quarter (Q1) look like it's in recession. As far as I know, everyone compares Q1 to last year's Q1 and Q2 to last year's Q2 in order to be unaffected by seasonal fluctuations.

I think annualized means that it is calculated without consideration that a quarter is only ~25% of the year's worth. So if Q2 was worth 25% exactly of the year, then an annualized drop of 37% translates to 0.25x37%=9.25% decline directly out of the year from this quarter, which would not be adjusted to be annualized. That's a little confusing to the readers and will get even more confusing due to seasonality making some quarters weigh a little more than others so annualizing the numbers makes it easier for the common reader to understand. This is what I think, NOT an economist.
 
Gatekeeper

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
I don't think so. You believe that American GDP figures are always compared to the last quarter? I'm not an economist, but I really doubt that because then seasonal fluctuations like holiday shopping will always make the next quarter (Q1) look like it's in recession. As far as I know, everyone compares Q1 to last year's Q1 and Q2 to last year's Q2 in order to be unaffected by seasonal fluctuations.

I think annualized means that it is calculated without consideration that a quarter is only ~25% of the year's worth. So if Q2 was worth 25% exactly of the year, then an annualized drop of 37% translates to 0.25x37%=9.25% decline directly out of the year from this quarter, which would not be adjusted to be annualized. That's a little confusing to the readers and will get even more confusing due to seasonality making some quarters weigh a little more than others so annualizing the numbers makes it easier for the common reader to understand. This is what I think, NOT an economist.
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Guys Here's the OECD defination.

Definition:Annualised growth rates (Annualised rate of change) show the value that would be registered if the quarter-on-previous quarter or month-on-previous month rate of change were maintained for a full year.
Context:Annualised growth rates attempt to facilitate comparison of data for different time periods (e.g. years and quarters). However, because the impact of any irregular is magnified, use of this form of growth rate presentation is not recommended, especially as the key headline series.

In addition to the compounded form of the Annualised growth rate presented here, the term “Annualised growth rate” is sometimes used to describe the quarterly or monthly growth rate multiplied by four or twelve.

Multiplying the quarterly or monthly growth rate by four or twelve is more appropriately referred to as “Linear approximation of the annualised growth rate”.

Some agencies use the expression “1-month rate of change, annualised”, etc, for such rates.

Source Publication:OECD, 2005, Data and Metadata Reporting and Presentation Handbook, OECD, Paris, Section 3: Guidelines for the reporting of different types of data
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Gatekeeper said:
Guys Here's the OECD defination.

Definition:Annualised growth rates (Annualised rate of change) show the value that would be registered if the quarter-on-previous quarter or month-on-previous month rate of change were maintained for a full year.
Context:Annualised growth rates attempt to facilitate comparison of data for different time periods (e.g. years and quarters). However, because the impact of any irregular is magnified, use of this form of growth rate presentation is not recommended, especially as the key headline series.

In addition to the compounded form of the Annualised growth rate presented here, the term “Annualised growth rate” is sometimes used to describe the quarterly or monthly growth rate multiplied by four or twelve.

Multiplying the quarterly or monthly growth rate by four or twelve is more appropriately referred to as “Linear approximation of the annualised growth rate”.

Some agencies use the expression “1-month rate of change, annualised”, etc, for such rates.

Source Publication:OECD, 2005, Data and Metadata Reporting and Presentation Handbook, OECD, Paris, Section 3: Guidelines for the reporting of different types of data
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Does anyone have the year-on-year growth figure of US GDP in Q2?
 
R

Red Moon

Junior Member
AndrewS said:
Does anyone have the year-on-year growth figure of US GDP in Q2?
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Figures are published at the end of July... so @localizer 's figures should be yet another estimate.

Gatekeeper said:
Guys Here's the OECD defination.

Definition:Annualised growth rates (Annualised rate of change) show the value that would be registered if the quarter-on-previous quarter or month-on-previous month rate of change were maintained for a full year.
Context:Annualised growth rates attempt to facilitate comparison of data for different time periods (e.g. years and quarters). However, because the impact of any irregular is magnified, use of this form of growth rate presentation is not recommended, especially as the key headline series.

In addition to the compounded form of the Annualised growth rate presented here, the term “Annualised growth rate” is sometimes used to describe the quarterly or monthly growth rate multiplied by four or twelve.

Multiplying the quarterly or monthly growth rate by four or twelve is more appropriately referred to as “Linear approximation of the annualised growth rate”.

Some agencies use the expression “1-month rate of change, annualised”, etc, for such rates.

Source Publication:OECD, 2005, Data and Metadata Reporting and Presentation Handbook, OECD, Paris, Section 3: Guidelines for the reporting of different types of data
Click to expand...
In addition, the phrase "seasonally adjusted" is usually added to American figures to take care of the problem raised by @manqiangrexue .
 
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