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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The only issue with that is that previously, industrialisation realisation was soon followed by de-industrialisation as western economies outsourced manufacturing and moved on to services. Which have been proven to be a major strategic error. One that China is determined to not repeat.

So long as China continues to be the factory of the world, its appetite for raw materials, including Iron Ore, will not decrease fundamentally.

Recycling will yield significant savings, but that will only be short term and diminishing as China depletes its existing scarp heaps while it continues to ship out newly produced products to the rest of the world.

The only way recycling might be viable long term is if China allows imports of scrap waste again. But that’s a very dubious solution.

See below. China's steel demand could drop substantially as construction slows down.

I already did a back of the envelope calculation, and it doesn't look like Brazil is enough. Rationale below.

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In 2019, China imported 664 million tonnes of Australian iron ore. At a grade of 65%, that's enough to produce 431 million tonnes of steel.

In 2019, China produced 875 million tonnes of steel, which was split:

1. Domestic Construction: 488 million tonnes
2. Everything else (domestic consumption + exported products): 487 million tonnes
 

KYli

Brigadier
The only issue with that is that previously, industrialisation realisation was soon followed by de-industrialisation as western economies outsourced manufacturing and moved on to services. Which have been proven to be a major strategic error. One that China is determined to not repeat.

So long as China continues to be the factory of the world, its appetite for raw materials, including Iron Ore, will not decrease fundamentally.

Recycling will yield significant savings, but that will only be short term and diminishing as China depletes its existing scarp heaps while it continues to ship out newly produced products to the rest of the world.

The only way recycling might be viable long term is if China allows imports of scrap waste again. But that’s a very dubious solution.
China building and infrastructure boom would decline as urbanization is almost completed. So I do see the demand of iron ore would also decrease in the next few years.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
China building and infrastructure boom would decline as urbanization is almost completed.
What; only 63-64% of the people in China live in cities in 2020.
In 2010 it was 50%.
So China needs at least another 1.5 decade to reach 80% urbanisation rate.

Meanwhile in the US, is 82%
Germany is 77%
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
He isn't leftiest of liberals. Far from it.

He literally warned against going too far left.

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And also:


The leftiest of liberals think Obama is a devil for throwing Snowden under the bus for his freedom of speech and exposing of US war crimes. They hate Obama too.

You're talking about a minority. Non right Europe was very critical of Obama's policies, i.e. Syria, but today I've seen European officials laud praise over Obama. Why? Because it's more important to show that the West can elect a man of African descent as leader of the democratic world. I can make a leftist look like a fascist and have in their face so it's only a matter of perception and the perception is Obama is a leftie liberal. I don't see the right praising Obama. Just like Hillary started off as a Republican when she was young. She's seen a Democratic leftist demon by the right. She looks like a feminist but everything else, she's more like a conservative.
 
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KYli

Brigadier
What; only 63-64% of the people in China live in cities in 2020.
In 2010 it was 50%.
So China needs at least another 1.5 decade to reach 80% urbanisation rate.

Meanwhile in the US, is 82%
Germany is 77%
The rate of urbanization is 1% per year. China wants to achieve urbanization in 2050. Therefore, China urbanization is expected to enter the terminal stage by 2030.

BRI can take up 10% to 15% of what China building and infrastructure steel needs. Not enough to replace the total demand lost due to completion in urbanization within China.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
The rate of urbanization is 1% per year. China wants to achieve urbanization in 2050. Therefore, China urbanization is expected to enter the terminal stage by 2030.


BRI can take up 10% to 15% of what China building and infrastructure steel needs. Not enough to replace the total demand lost due to completion in urbanization within China.
China is an "infrastructure monster". The rate of urbanization should be much faster. They must have stricter definition for urbanization.
 

2handedswordsman

Junior Member
Registered Member
EU wont break up. It is a huge market where Germany and France can dump their products and thus have competitive industries.

Also for the poor countries, they can get unlimited ECB QE which keeps their bonds super low allowing them to service their debts. In addition there is fiscal transfers in the EU, which means that rich countries pay up for poor countries to get them developed.

Why else do you think that so many EU countries are so rich? Its because the EU has been funnelling billions and billions of Euros to develop them.

So, rich countries get huge market with minimal competition to dump their products, and poor countries get money to develop. Win-win for both sides.

Obviously, the EU commission is always looking to federalize (EU army..) but it is still a long way off.
This is the easy explanation, the excuse they use to "blur the waters" of the situation. The Greek debt after 11 years of strong austerity measures imposed by EU is going straight up and how it couldn't be like this? If you force an indebted company to get more loans, the only thing you can get is the company to sink more into debts. The austerity measures are not helping at all the economy to roll. Here in Greece we have 24% VAT and triple property tax to name some. How can a bussiness even start and consequently thrive with such a hostile economic environment? You cannot attract FDI in production, you cannot be competitive in manufacturing and innovation, all we can observe is an invasion of retail and services mostly from the Big Guys of EU. German TUI is the biggest tourist operator in Greece, Fraport( a state owned German entity) got all the airports (state owned), Ferrovie (State owned Italian railway company) got the Greek National Railways, Deutsche Telekom took the Greek National telecom company, biggest ports are for sale or sold (Piraeus port maybe the biggest in Mediterranean, sold to COSCO -the loopholes that i mentioned before-). State monopolies like Public Power Corp, Greek sugar industries, the public pension and insurance funds forced to break up and sold. Gold mines to Canadian Eldorado Gold... Every major corp of the public sector which was profitable forced to break up into pieces and be sold to foreign private or state capital either local capitalists due to "anti-market practices". Even "Larco" a state owned top to bottom Nickel and Cobalt mining and proccessing company is being forced to break into pieces and be sold, while it could be the "locomotive" of economic recovery now that new green technologies are penetrating our everyday life more and more. All the Greek right wing liberals were applauding because they would get a piece of the pie of the Public sector. They once mocking the Greek state as the last Soviet in Europe. Now they should be proud that we are a failed Banana republic in Europe.
Yes a lot of money came from EU, mostly for infastracture, but it is for sure, not for free. Most of infastracture went to private sector to operate but the state retains the expence of maintenance. Fraport, the German operator of the former state owned aiports got 200million cash from the Greek State two months ago because of the losses of pandemic. (why?because we are colonised!) The situation is insanely corrupt...Local bourgeoisie and their pets (politicians) exchanged our national sovereignity with the "easy money pouring from EU"
These, to take a little taste of the true nature of the EU if you had any delusions :)
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Greek debt after 11 years of strong austerity measures imposed by EU is going straight up and how it couldn't be like this?
Please dont make Greece an innocent victim on this. Greece was living for so long with borrowed money. Thats what corruption and poor education does to a country. Yes, Greece could declare bankruptcy but then it would become another Venezuela plus it would get massacred geopolitically for not paying its debts.

The austerity measures are not helping at all the economy to roll.
Austerity was wrong. But at that time, the whole EU was following the "Austerity model" while the Americans were going the opposite direction with QE "printing". Hindsight and all that..


German TUI is the biggest tourist operator in Greece, Fraport( a state owned German entity) got all the airports (state owned), Ferrovie (State owned Italian railway company) got the Greek National Railways, Deutsche Telekom took the Greek National telecom company, biggest ports are for sale or sold (Piraeus port maybe the biggest in Mediterranean, sold to COSCO -the loopholes that i mentioned before-). State monopolies like Public Power Corp, Greek sugar industries, the public pension and insurance funds forced to break up and sold. Gold mines to Canadian Eldorado Gold... Every major corp of the public sector which was profitable forced to break up into pieces and be sold to foreign private or state capital either local capitalists due to "anti-market practices". Even "Larco" a state owned top to bottom Nickel and Cobalt mining and proccessing company is being forced to break into pieces and be sold, while it could be the "locomotive" of economic recovery now that new green technologies are penetrating our everyday life more and more.
Greece shouldnt complain. As Greeks love to reflect on their (admittedly glorious) past, if they had all these issues in the past, foreign Great powers would send in troops and plunder the country, from top to bottom. If the "only" price for such reckless borrowing is selling national assets, then thats pretty light punishment. In the past, the country could also lose geopolitically if they couldnt pay their debts. Can you imagine, strategically placed islands getting "sold" to countries left and right? (e.g. Turkey cutting a deal with EU)


Yes a lot of money came from EU, mostly for infastracture, but it is for sure, not for free. Most of infastracture went to private sector to operate but the state retains the expence of maintenance.
And? Whose fault is that? Who signed the contracts? Why didnt anyone check the contracts?
And if they were "forced" to sign these contracts, then whose fault is it. That the country is weak, is its own mistake and fault. That corruption was so endemic and the population was living in such extravagance and also in every election wanting promises of more money (bribes) from a party before voting it, whose fault is it again?
Power comes from the society. That the politicians were so corrupt, means that the majority or a sizeable portion of the population was also corrupt/miseducated (either by wanting money to vote, or by not voting at all, or by spreading lies about how totally stronk Greece was and could do whatever it wanted)


These, to take a little taste of the true nature of the EU if you had any delusions
I know very well what the EU *truly* is. My post was for oversimplifying things without going into much detail. However, Greece shouldnt complain too much because there is no free lunch in the world. The moment you chose (for your own national interests) to join the EU, you should have been clear on who holds power there and what games are being played. You moved from the snall league to the big league. That also means bigger opportunities but also bigger risks in some areas

Now in a more positive tone, from what I have seen, your new PM Mr.Mitsotakis seems like a good guy who wants to reform the country. At least, he is far better than the previous one who was a disaster
 
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