Biden and his team (Jake Sullivan, Austin Blinken et al) made a classic mistake of focusing too much on the grand strategy while neglecting the tactics
Their strategy was sound, make a strategic withdrawlal from the region in order to fully focus all the US efforts and resources towards the Indo-Pacific, containing China.
The problem was the tactics of how they went to actually implement such a strategy at the ground level in Afghanistan. They totally botched it, made a mess out of it, destoryed any (remaining) US credibility in the world, damaged US relations with NATO/EU etc.
Defence secretary Mr. Austin is especially at fault here. As a decorated and experienced general in the military he should be the first to know the difference between strategy and tactics and how easy it is for things to totally get out of control if the tactics are not thoroughly studied before implemented on the ground.
Jake Sullivan holds equal responsibility for not speaking the truth to the President and holding his ground against any hastily drawn plans.
Blinken, IMO, holds the least responsibility. It was probably his department that wisely thought about withdrawing from Afghanistan and then focusing againt China. His department wasn't responsible for the US troops withdrawal or any ground command of troops.
A ‘Strategic Apocalypse’ in Afghanistan: A Seismic Shift, Years in the Making
By ALASTAIR CROOKE - 23 AUG 2021
The author is a former British diplomat, founder and director of the Beirut-based Conflicts Forum.
An earlier piece, reflecting fury at Biden – and the sense of a strategic apocalypse having befallen Washington – is best caught in this agonised cry, again from Michael Rubin, representing the hawkish AEI (American Enterprise Institute):
“By enabling China to advance its interests in Afghanistan, Biden also enables it to cut-off India and other American allies from Central Asia. Simply put … Biden’s incompetence now risks the entire post-World War II liberal order … God help the United States”.
Rubin says plainly what Afghanistan was always truly about: Disrupting Central Asia, to weaken Russia and China.
[
Every serious analyst knows that the “overriding” geopolitical purpose of the bombing and occupation of Afghanistan nearly 20 years ago was to establish an essential Empire of Bases foothold in the strategic intersection of Central and South Asia, subsequently coupled with occupying Iraq in Southwest Asia. ~ ]
Rubin at least spares us the
hypocrisy about safeguarding girls’ education (others, who are close to the U.S. military industrial complex, continue the mantra of the need to re-deploy to Afghanistan and for continued war – and consequent weapons sales – in Afghanistan, in part ‘to protect’ women’s rights). Rubin concludes:
“Rather than enhance America’s position against China however, Biden has hemorrhaged it”.
To be fair, Michael Rubin was ‘half right’ when he said that “Rather than enhance America’s position against China, Biden has hemorrhaged it”, but only half right. Because the missing ‘other half’ is that Washington was outplayed by Russia, China and Iran.
Western Intelligence failed utterly to see the new domestic Afghan dynamics – the external actors underwriting the Taliban’s negotiations with the tribes.
And they still do not see all the external dominoes falling into place around an Afghan pivot, that changes the whole Central Asian calculus.
Civil war remains a risk: We may expect that the CIA will try to stand-up an Afghan counter-insurgency to the new government – the path is not difficult to forecast: acts of violence and assassinations will (and are) being attributed to the “terrorist” Taliban. They will likely be false flag operations. And there is talk too, (mostly in the West) as to whether the Taliban can be ‘trusted’, or will stick to their undertakings.
During the rout China and Russia (‘co-incidentally’) closed the airspace over northern Afghanistan on account of their joint military exercises taking place to the north of Afghanistan – and, for the first time the two powers exercised under joint military control. This represents the third (and very significant) domino, though one barely noticed by the West.
(...)
Note: This article was written before the suicidal bombing events by ISIS in Kabul.