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windsclouds2030

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It's coming. There are just too many people talking about this out of nowhere all of a sudden.
WHICH TIBET??? The Anglo-version Tibet staffed with those refugees in Dharamsala??? :p

(Un)fortunately their gunboats are by no means anything bigger than China's ones, and if anything less it'll be patched by Dongfeng. Moreover China has enough nuke warheads to repel any evil mind!
{Unfortunately for the Anglo force; Fortunately for the Chinese people to avoid the same path of the Opium Wars as well as the Eight-Nation Alliance invasion}

 

supersnoop

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US inflation up again, 4% over last 12 month, double the Fed's target of 2%. Despite this vast injection of currency US GDP growth is well below expectation at 6.5% (target was 8.4%).

As result, Jin Canrong (aka 政委/commissar), is now making a big call:
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Should inflation reach 5%, the interest payment for US debt will grow to 1.5 trillion USD a year, leading to the bankruptcy of US government.
Am I wrong to say the ‘global semiconductor shortage’ is an artificial one created by the Trump-era ban on SMIC?

EV sales in China continue to grow despite this “global chip shortage”… somehow they are having no trouble sourcing chips…

Furthermore, aren’t the US actions forcing things like “rip and replace” or Huawei and ZTE equipment is essentially a double tax on Americans?

This is all in addition to the tariffs “China is paying for”.
 

DarkStar

Junior Member
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Am I wrong to say the ‘global semiconductor shortage’ is an artificial one created by the Trump-era ban on SMIC?

EV sales in China continue to grow despite this “global chip shortage”… somehow they are having no trouble sourcing chips…

Furthermore, aren’t the US actions forcing things like “rip and replace” or Huawei and ZTE equipment is essentially a double tax on Americans?

This is all in addition to the tariffs “China is paying for”.
Yep, this is why US car manufacturers are unable to meet needs because their Chinese counterparts aren't able to use the sanctioned chips

In entertainment news:

Kris Wu could face 10 years to life imprisonment.

Really puts things in perspective; someone like Harvey Weinstein would have been executed long before he could get his fat fingers on starlets along with the corey feldman abusers. That's the difference between america, a nation where oligarchs are above the law and a civilised society like China where all are subject to the law.

In middle east news:

IF you notice, this is the playbook of the CIA; capture an adversary then subject him to MKULTRA type tortures Ramsay Bolton style then release him as an asset and slave, subject to your orders. We saw this with ISIS' first leader al-Baghdadi who was himself a prisoner of Guantanamo and later on led ISIS which mysteriously seemed to perform to Israel and US policy objectives in the middle east.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Yep, this is why US car manufacturers are unable to meet needs because their Chinese counterparts aren't able to use the sanctioned chips

In entertainment news:

Kris Wu could face 10 years to life imprisonment.

Really puts things in perspective; someone like Harvey Weinstein would have been executed long before he could get his fat fingers on starlets along with the corey feldman abusers. That's the difference between america, a nation where oligarchs are above the law and a civilised society like China where all are subject to the law.

Rumor has it that Peng Liyuan hates rapists/sexual abusers and there has been several high profile executions of rapists within the ranks of CCP cadres since Xi took the rein. Not saying that Kris will get shot, but things aren’t exactly working in his favor.
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
Am I wrong to say the ‘global semiconductor shortage’ is an artificial one created by the Trump-era ban on SMIC?

EV sales in China continue to grow despite this “global chip shortage”… somehow they are having no trouble sourcing chips…

Furthermore, aren’t the US actions forcing things like “rip and replace” or Huawei and ZTE equipment is essentially a double tax on Americans?

This is all in addition to the tariffs “China is paying for”.

According to the news, and my guesswork, the global semiconductor chip shortage is mainly a confluence of events and how the industry production timelines operates and perhaps the players in the network influencing each other.

1) There were two distinct events that started it all. One was the Huawei chip ban which lead to a race to finish off production by TSMC to supply Huawei with a stockpile of chips. Two was the pandemic which closed some factories and cause production to ramp up in other types of factories.

2) It takes a few months to complete a chip order, as that is how long production takes. With the pandemic and the rush to get the goods to Huawei, TSMC focused on Huawei it appeared. The pandemic closed the auto factories in the world, therefore no chip order from them. The pandemic caused a surge in electronic equipment demand, who all are in Asia. By the time the western auto factory got back to work and placed their chip orders, TSMC was all booked up. Ford, GM, had to line up and wait.

3) Let's be blunt. Everyone is Chinese. Hislicone goes to TSMC who then forks it over to Huawei. If some white guy from America demands they should be first in line, not sure if anyone is going to listen, everyone will just say they don't speak English. TSMC already got screwed once by President Trump. Who knows what following presidents would do. There would be a great incentive for TSMC to not get screwed later by both sides in the tech war. It is no secret China is domesticating all IC production. TSMC may be selling stuff to a Mr. X in China through the backdoor. Sanctions are made to be evaded. If TSMC wants to guarantee its place in the China market in the future, that is what they will do. That is not too much for them to do, just business, like how they gave Huawei its stockpile of chips.

Look at it this way, corporations are like people, and the greatest instinct for humans is to survive. How does TSMC guarantee it own survival? Pray that President Trump wins the next election? Or be cunning and think for itself?

Then hope it works!

:D
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
According to the news, and my guesswork, the global semiconductor chip shortage is mainly a confluence of events and how the industry production timelines operates and perhaps the players in the network influencing each other.

1) There were two distinct events that started it all. One was the Huawei chip ban which lead to a race to finish off production by TSMC to supply Huawei with a stockpile of chips. Two was the pandemic which closed some factories and cause production to ramp up in other types of factories.

2) It takes a few months to complete a chip order, as that is how long production takes. With the pandemic and the rush to get the goods to Huawei, TSMC focused on Huawei it appeared. The pandemic closed the auto factories in the world, therefore no chip order from them. The pandemic caused a surge in electronic equipment demand, who all are in Asia. By the time the western auto factory got back to work and placed their chip orders, TSMC was all booked up. Ford, GM, had to line up and wait.

3) Let's be blunt. Everyone is Chinese. Hislicone goes to TSMC who then forks it over to Huawei. If some white guy from America demands they should be first in line, not sure if anyone is going to listen, everyone will just say they don't speak English. TSMC already got screwed once by President Trump. Who knows what following presidents would do. There would be a great incentive for TSMC to not get screwed later by both sides in the tech war. It is no secret China is domesticating all IC production. TSMC may be selling stuff to a Mr. X in China through the backdoor. Sanctions are made to be evaded. If TSMC wants to guarantee its place in the China market in the future, that is what they will do. That is not too much for them to do, just business, like how they gave Huawei its stockpile of chips.

Look at it this way, corporations are like people, and the greatest instinct for humans is to survive. How does TSMC guarantee it own survival? Pray that President Trump wins the next election? Or be cunning and think for itself?

Then hope it works!

:D
@horse brother nicely said and there is another factor most of the Chinese FABS caters only to the Chinese customer as they ramp up production their priority is the domestic market, the orders came from above and also with SMIC having experience sanction those foreign company have no loyalty and its better to cultivate ties with Chinese domestic customer. TSMC, Intel and others don't have that luxury and they're afraid that they may lock out from the huge Chinese market.
 

windsclouds2030

Senior Member
Registered Member
“It Failed Miserably” – What If the US Lost a War and Nobody Noticed?

By Byron W. King, 29 JULY 2021

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Because America’s loss in Afghanistan has already been overshadowed.

Indeed, the U.S. military has suffered an even greater strategic disaster than Afghanistan: an epic military defeat that already occurred, and you likely don’t know a thing about it.

The source for this ultra-defeatist news is not just a teacher at a sailor’s college, sited on a salty bay. No, the source is no less than a serving, 4-star general whose job title is Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Let’s dig in…

Here’s the long and short. The U.S. military conducted a major wargame last fall and “it failed miserably,” said U.S. Air Force Gen. John Hyten earlier this week.

Hyten spoke at a conference sponsored by the Emerging Technologies Institute. It’s a think tank run by the National Defense Industrial Association, an industry group focused on military modernization. (You can watch it on YouTube here, about an hour and 18 minutes.)


“An aggressive red team that had been studying the United States for the last 20 years just ran rings around us,” he said. “They knew exactly what we're going to do before we did it.”

According to a Pentagon spokesperson, one key scenario of this wargame involved U.S. forces battling with China over Taiwan. From Hyten’s summary, U.S. forces became sitting ducks and were destroyed piecemeal and systematically.

The overarching problem was, basically, everything.

That is, the problem for the U.S. was far beyond the shortcomings of any particular piece of equipment, or ship or airplane, let alone the willingness of U.S. and allied troops to fight. No, the issue was the very essence of how the U.S. military forms strategic concepts and conducts operations.

In other words, the problem was the entire belief system, architecture and construction of the Pentagon way of doing things — and certainly of waging war. By extension, it’s a political problem too, as we’ll address below.

“We always aggregate to fight, and aggregate to survive,” said Hyten.

That is, the U.S. military is built around massing people, equipment and munitions. Build up a huge complex of firepower. Then add massive levels of intelligence information, command and control, and targeting data to, as the saying goes, “take it downrange.”

This has been the U.S. approach to warfighting since World War II, with many of the roots extending back to the Civil War.

Per Hyten, in last fall’s war game, “We basically attempted an information-dominance structure, where information was ubiquitous to our forces. Just like it was in the first Gulf War, just like it has been for the last 20 years, just like everybody in the world, including China and Russia, have watched us do for the last 30 years.”

But the so-called “blue team” (meaning U.S. and allied forces) lost access to communications and data networks almost immediately. Satellites went away. Seafloor cables were cut. Bandwidth died. In general, it was impossible to utilize the electromagnetic environment, and within moments nobody could talk with anybody.

And “what happens if right from the beginning that information is not available?” asked Hyten, rhetorically. “That’s the big problem that we faced.”

According to Hyten, “in today’s world, with hypersonic missiles, with significant long-range fires coming at us from all domains, if you're aggregated and everybody knows where you are, you're vulnerable.”

And with an entire concept of operations poked in the proverbial eyes, red team easily defeated the blue side.

Based on Hyten’s description, this wargame was not just another table-top exercise. No, this was a test of the all-up game plan for the “next” conflict, largely based on concepts of operations that have guided the American military process for three decades or more. And the outcome was a total disaster.

U.S. doctrine focuses on creating what is called a “kill box” for the opponent. But in this particular expedition, from the outset U.S. and allied forces walked into their own zones of destruction. They laid down in their own coffins, so to speak.

(...)
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
According to the news, and my guesswork, the global semiconductor chip shortage is mainly a confluence of events and how the industry production timelines operates and perhaps the players in the network influencing each other.

1) There were two distinct events that started it all. One was the Huawei chip ban which lead to a race to finish off production by TSMC to supply Huawei with a stockpile of chips. Two was the pandemic which closed some factories and cause production to ramp up in other types of factories.

2) It takes a few months to complete a chip order, as that is how long production takes. With the pandemic and the rush to get the goods to Huawei, TSMC focused on Huawei it appeared. The pandemic closed the auto factories in the world, therefore no chip order from them. The pandemic caused a surge in electronic equipment demand, who all are in Asia. By the time the western auto factory got back to work and placed their chip orders, TSMC was all booked up. Ford, GM, had to line up and wait.

3) Let's be blunt. Everyone is Chinese. Hislicone goes to TSMC who then forks it over to Huawei. If some white guy from America demands they should be first in line, not sure if anyone is going to listen, everyone will just say they don't speak English. TSMC already got screwed once by President Trump. Who knows what following presidents would do. There would be a great incentive for TSMC to not get screwed later by both sides in the tech war. It is no secret China is domesticating all IC production. TSMC may be selling stuff to a Mr. X in China through the backdoor. Sanctions are made to be evaded. If TSMC wants to guarantee its place in the China market in the future, that is what they will do. That is not too much for them to do, just business, like how they gave Huawei its stockpile of chips.

Look at it this way, corporations are like people, and the greatest instinct for humans is to survive. How does TSMC guarantee it own survival? Pray that President Trump wins the next election? Or be cunning and think for itself?

Then hope it works!

:D

You also need to add how after the lockdowns, the automobile companies expected sales to crash, so they cancelled all their semiconductor orders. Then the auto companies were caught out by the rebound in sales
 
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