Now there's social media, and India can no longer hide behind the romanticism of journalists and writers. People around the world can see what the real Mumbai looks like compared to Shanghai. People can watch all the BS that is happening in India, and compare it with the progress of China. India is talking and talking and talking, while China is quietly coming up with new technologies and projects. That's why the Western way of comparing India to China is very lazy analysis.
Honestly, I think I have never been more negative in my view of India's prospects than ever before. Not joking. The situation is dire. Some people realize it inside India, and they run!
Three main factors leads me to believe that.
1. The world, many parts of it, are turning way from low income countries as trading partners. India seemed to have missed the boat here. When the world was opening up, India did not really take advantage of that. Instead, the rupee all it did was go down. If India could not become a manufacture power when the global trading system was much more open, then when that system is contracting, that means less opportunity.
This does not mean the door is closed, just look at China and ASEAN, they continue to expand their trade and incomes go up. However, this door probably is closed for India. Just to think, they held up the RCEP ratification because of their wanting to export their people demands.
2. Internally India seems worst off, because the rupee keeps falling, and 40% of the population are still working the land. Where is the progress in the age of globalization? You would figure they could get people off the land, but that never happened. Now where are these jobs? While the rupee keeps falling so the fat cat rich Indian will buyout these hapless poor farmers.
3. The intensifying rival in all realms, particular technology and military between the China and the United States, will see India fall further behind. India is already behind. China and the United States locked in their rivalry will step on the accelerator. India cannot keep up. India will just fall further behind. Think of EVs, robotics, semi-conductors, and AI. They are not keeping up, they are falling further and further behind.
They are not catching up, and the internal situation is bad, so everyone flees.
The immediate future will not be kind to India.