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- Thread starter bd popeye
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Do you really think killing Zelensky will have any effect on the war? Can Russia achieve any of their goals by doing so?
Simliiarly do you think killing Lai would lead Taiwan to unify peacefully?
This applies to Venezuela too, the US's actual goal, and this is not necessarily Trump's goal, is to install a puppet government and hand over Venezuela's oil to the US. Maduro isn't the only person in the way of that, and one tend to not become more favourable among the people when you're openly allied with a foreign country who just launched an unprovoked attack on your soil.
On the other hand if US actually need to physically occupy Venezuela to control their oil, it'll become a quagmire just like Iraq and end up with a government that, like Iraq, will just sell oil to China anyway.
Maduro had plenty of warning to move to a bunker outside the capital and make it impossible to get to without a large scale ground operation, and US could have left him to last if the goal is to occupy the country. Just like bombing Iran's empty IAEA insepcted "nuclear weapons facility" and calling it a day, the choices made looks more like an off-ramp for both sides than a serious attempt at achieving the greater agenda. After all Maduro is a propaganda item for a greater agenda but not really the point, to make him the main point suites Trump's personal goal of appearances but by itself doesn't actually advance the greater goal, if not actually counter productive.
Putin's goal in Ukraine isn't to score domestic political points, if he bombed Kiev and killed Zelensky on day 1 then called it a day, it would be a disaster for Russia's security enviroment. At this point either Trump has to commit to a full occupation, or he just f*ed up.
Maduro’s rapid capture & fall is simply an indicator of how thoroughly infiltrated Venezuela has always been. This could not have happened if his support among the military & intelligence establishments were not completely compromised. Even Saddan fared better in the sense that the US had to mount a full scale military campaign against Iraq to grab him, and not just go in with a dozen helicopters with zero operational opposition (outside of maybe a few personal body guards).
It’s what Russia wanted and wished it could do in Ukraine when it moved in with its special military operation to occupy Kiev. Except the Ukrainians were not actually compromised by Russian intelligence & their military shot back giving Russia a black eye and forcing it into a three years long war. Russia should have known it would’ve happened since their enemies in Ukraine were built up & well prepared after 2014 by the silent hand of the West.
To accomplish such a thing in a country requires decades if not centuries of infiltration both intelligence and ideological. To do it in Taiwan right now is not plausible - the DPP is too entrenched and Western & Japanese interests in Taiwanese society are well positioned to mobilize the local resistance. If you want to take Taiwan this way you’d need to get half the public on your side first, and most of the military. China just doesn’t have that kind of influence right now.
It’s what Russia wanted and wished it could do in Ukraine when it moved in with its special military operation to occupy Kiev. Except the Ukrainians were not actually compromised by Russian intelligence & their military shot back giving Russia a black eye and forcing it into a three years long war. Russia should have known it would’ve happened since their enemies in Ukraine were built up & well prepared after 2014 by the silent hand of the West.
To accomplish such a thing in a country requires decades if not centuries of infiltration both intelligence and ideological. To do it in Taiwan right now is not plausible - the DPP is too entrenched and Western & Japanese interests in Taiwanese society are well positioned to mobilize the local resistance. If you want to take Taiwan this way you’d need to get half the public on your side first, and most of the military. China just doesn’t have that kind of influence right now.
Yes, but this is even better, they got Maduro alive.
If China is grabs Lai tomorrow and puts him on trial for treason, you don't think it will encourage the next Taiwanese leader to think very carefully before pissing off the Mainland?
China's goal isn't getting Taiwan to stop pissing off the mainland is it?
Will grabbing Lai allow Beijing to appoint the next governor of Taiwan and disband the ROC military?
Has US occupied Caracas though?
Do you think Taiwan will welcome PLA with open arms and TSMC will cease all shipment to the west if PLA grabbed Lai without occupying anything?
No, and that's why the operation would never work vs. Taiwan.
Opposition to China in Taiwan is deep rooted. It's not just a one man show. The DPP and its supporters (pan-Green voters) would have to be up rooted as a whole for China's objectives in Taiwan to be established. That's just not possible via a special military operation. It is only possible via annexation and/or decades of counter intelligence & ideological infiltration.
Venezuela was different. The US identified Venezuela as a "swing state" where Maduro's singular influence could impact the future of its alignment with the US; that's why it took him out. Lai is just a representative of a much larger force in Taiwan.
Maduro has only been in power for 12 years you know, the idea that Venezuela is a one man show or "swing state" is one of those propaganda that really require ignoring a lot of common sense.
And hate to break it to you, but if Venezuela is really a "swing state", it's probably not gonna swing in the direction you want.
US has done a lot of things over the years but one can't really accuse them of having great strategic planning.