Miscellaneous News

burritocannon said:

i think its convincing because they've followed rand's russia-ukraine playbook to the letter already.
argentina cancelled its chinese projects for 40 billion. venezuela is an absolute no brainer for choking off oil supply. nigeria has chinese projects as well. we just saw deals made with central asian states (kazakhstan is huge), leashes put on malaysia and who was it indonesia? aipac delegation sent to taiwan amidst increasing aggression from the eu to push taiwan recognition.

and you want to tell me this isn't a methodical encirclement taking place?
the operative word here is 'methodical.'
i cannot stress enough that the focus here is that there is every sign that america is still very much operating under intelligent control, that all the apparent idiocy of trump&co are distractions if not outright deception. watch what america does, not what america says.

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If the US were under methodical control, they would realize a blockade stops goods moving in both directions. If Nexperia, a single Chinese company, halting exports threatened automakers globally, what do you think will happen if all Chinese exports halted?

Globally, power plants would fail, medicine would become inaccessible, cascade civilizational failure would occur because the US cannot replace China's role in supplying everything. Countries with China as their largest trade partner (most of the world) would immediately align with China for survival reasons.

A blockade is never going to happen.

Turkish military cargo plane fell out of the sky. I think it might be an accident involving Russian air defense

iewgnem said:

The reason they're going after everyone else instead of China is because China wil make them feel pain, while Yemen and Venezuvela appeares to be painless,

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Not disagreeing, but another way to look at it is that the US is going after those who work with or want to work with China, which can indirectly hurt China.

iewgnem said:

The idea of blockading China who has land borders with Russia and ME, not to mention China being the 5th largest oil producer itself is just Reddit level IQ, and that's not even getting into how US who themselves are isolated from Euroasia and actually dependant on imports can survive a counter blockade from China. If US military actually invests in it it says more about the competency of US strategic planning than anything else.

I don't think you can model US behaviour using China's way of thinking. European culture and it's US and Isarel spawns has an intrinsic, instinctive, religious desire to attack and steal, they can't help it, it's not the result of rational planning, it's just their nature and what they wake up wanting to do.

The reason they're going after everyone else instead of China is because China wil make them feel pain, while Yemen and Venezuvela appeares to be painless, American instint requires them to steal but American instinct also don't want to experience pain. There is no 6D chess being played, they're not seeing 10 steps ahead, they're just moving on instinct.

Dealing with the west is really like dealing with an animal, the animal will always want to bite you, there's no reasoning with it, but the animal is also afraid of pain and the animal don't really do much planning like a human does. So the way you deal with it shouldn't be to become an animal yourself, the way you deal with it should be to avoid engagement while teaching it to associate bad behavior with pain, over and over, until it's drilled into the animal's instinct. That's all.

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Here's what the US and the West would do if they had a proper plan to contain China: they would build close ties with Russia. Russia and China are natural rivals and they have competing interests in the Far East and in Central Asia. Russia would love to get a lot closer to Europe and peoples that they consider culturally tied to. Once upon a time, Russia even tried to join Nato.

But the West went and did the exact opposite: it alienated Russia enough to start a war. And now their relationship is unfixable while the Russia - China relationship is stronger than ever.

_killuminati_ said:

Not disagreeing, but another way to look at it is that the US is going after those who work with or want to work with China, which can indirectly hurt China.

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I'm going to correct this statement; it should read "which can theoretically hurt China". Because just look at the effects of the American interventions: not only have they been relatively ineffectual, they've actually pushed the targets closer to China's camp. And there's no way to improve the outcomes without actually sending in proper forces and making into a full-blown war. Something like engagin in a full-blown war with Venezuela is about the fastest way to ruin the American strategic position.

4Tran said:

I'm going to correct this statement; it should read "which can theoretically hurt China". Because just look at the effects of the American interventions: not only have they been relatively ineffectual, they've actually pushed the targets closer to China's camp. And there's no way to improve the outcomes without actually sending in proper forces and making into a full-blown war. Something like engagin in a full-blown war with Venezuela is about the fastest way to ruin the American strategic position.

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can already implies theoretical. Ex: Pakistan is in China's camp but there is no denying that US involvement in the region has hindered CPEC (a Chinese investment), especially the Gwadar Port which is sitting practically idle for the last 10+ years.

burritocannon said:

i think its convincing because they've followed rand's russia-ukraine playbook to the letter already.
argentina cancelled its chinese projects for 40 billion. venezuela is an absolute no brainer for choking off oil supply. nigeria has chinese projects as well. we just saw deals made with central asian states (kazakhstan is huge), leashes put on malaysia and who was it indonesia? aipac delegation sent to taiwan amidst increasing aggression from the eu to push taiwan recognition.

and you want to tell me this isn't a methodical encirclement taking place?
the operative word here is 'methodical.'
i cannot stress enough that the focus here is that there is every sign that america is still very much operating under intelligent control, that all the apparent idiocy of trump&co are distractions if not outright deception. watch what america does, not what america says.

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You are not factoring in hard power reality.

The U.S. can dust off decades old playbooks against Russia because the balance of power and geopolitical dynamics at play has not materially changed in all that time.

America can’t do that with China because of the speed and scale of the hard power changes happening in the real world.

An old blockade was perhaps a viable play, in 2008. That’s what Obama and Hillary’s pivot to Asia was all about. Use the other SCS claimants to create a possible choke point in the SCS. That dream was utterly crushed by Chinese hard power building mutually supportive unsinkable carriers in its island bases underpinned by the growing might of the PLAN, PLAAF and PLARF. That study was a decade out of date when it was written, never mind now.

China’s exponential growth and dominance in global manufacturing and supply chains also make even a boycott by China an existential threat to everyone else’s whole economies.

Additional pipelines, HSR and EVs are all working to massively reduce China’s crude oil needs. Factor in transition to war economy and economic China could easily not need any sea based oil supplies to continue to live and fight comfortably indefinitely. China has utterly turned the tables where now it’s the west that is in existential danger from being cut off from China’s exports.

Indeed, one of China’s actual diplomatic challenges in the event of a major war is how to preserve its diplomatic relations with 3rd party nations while also not opening a backdoor for western MIC to resupply via industrial scale smuggling from said 3rd party nations. An American blockade would literally solve that problem for China, where China gets to close that possible loophole and not take any of the blame. Wonderful 6d move Americans.

uguduwa said:

Isn‘t this normal everywhere? Country bumpkins have more kids.

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Its normal in developed world. India which already lacks clean environment and nutrients for its population is adding another variable of late age birth. which will ensure that it will never become a developed country.

doggydogdo said:

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Turkish military cargo plane fell out of the sky. I think it might be an accident involving Russian air defense

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I dont think so. Russia does not want to weaken Erdogan. Russia problem with Turkey it is too European and its Erdogan lack of competence that he could not transform the country.

Some bridge in Sichuan partially collapsed due to landslides and other conditions. The bridge was already closed on Monday coz cracks started appearing. So no reported casualties.

Still though expect westoid media etc to spam this a lot for a few days on the whole tofu bridge thing. They really need a win against China so they will try to use this one occasion.

Randomuser said:

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Some bridge in Sichuan partially collapsed due to landslides and other conditions. The bridge was already closed on Monday coz cracks started appearing. So no reported casualties.

Still though expect westoid media etc to spam this a lot for a few days on the whole tofu bridge thing. They really need a win against China so they will try to use this one occasion.

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Here's a video.
It looks like it was not the bridge that actually collapsed. The hillside where the connecting road was built went down, taking a piece of the bridge with it.