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Enestori

New Member
Registered Member
If you want to increase China's landmass and take back lost lands, just invade Mongolia.

I oppose this idea because you're creating a 20-year Iraq-style problem and a 100-year integration problem that distracts and delays Taiwanese reunification.

As for Russia - Russia borders Alaska, and Russia's southernmost Kuril Island is 8 kilometers away from mainland Hokkaido. Today Russia has military bases on the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin. This could be invaluable in twenty-five years.

It's always weird and even suspicious that SDF goes on and on about Outer Manchuria and rarely mentions Outer Mongolia, when the former gets you nuked and the latter just requires some long driving (ignoring the twenty-year insurgency that follows).
 
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AndrewJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
ok let's agree to disagree. In summary there are two strategy options we are talking about, ie

In the scenario that Russia is danger of collapsing, you either:
a) Support Russia, covertly if necessary, so that the collapse does not happen;
b) Do nothing, and if Russia collapses, take full advantage of the situation by grabbing resources/land if it is in the national interest.

Then you would choose a) and I would choose b).

This is why you are not XJP. :cool:
 

Randomuser

Senior Member
Registered Member
But China and Russia settled their borders about 20 years ago. The PRC no longer claims Outer Manchuria so they would be going against their word if they were to seize it. The political damage can end up being pretty severe. It's just not worth it especially when you remember that the only thing that's particularly valuable in this territory is Vladivostok. Moreover, China gains a million advantages from having a powerful and vibrant Russia around so the whole idea is a nonstarter.
See thats the thing about these contracts, they don't mean much if you are weak. China can claim they only signed it under duress of Russia being stronger in the past or something like that. There are always ways to weasel out of contracts like this. How did Russia even get these lands in the first place? Late Qing was too weak and Russia demanded some land as payment for helping negotiate stuff. China owned Outer Mongolia in like the early 1920s but Russia took it over via force.

Now you see why Russia needs to portray itself as strong so much. Because its really only force that allows it to claim so much land and without that, we can easily argue a lot doesn't deserve to belong to it. That can be said of many nations but Russia really relies a lot. China was literally in civil war for decades and invaded by countless outsiders so it became known as a massive punching bag aka sick man of asia. And yet it all came back into one united nation. Thats how you know China has a lot more legitimacy. It also helps even if you are mongolian, tibetan, yi or hell even Uyghur, you look a lot like the rest of China compared to Russia were they really are filled with completely different looking people.

Again I support Russia winning against the west here. But their legitimacy is only as good as their ability to fight. So they better start getting their shit together coz its no longer a laughing matter. They talk a big game so I expect them to honor it.
 
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A potato

Junior Member
Registered Member
If you want to increase China's landmass and take back lost lands, just invade Mongolia.

I oppose this idea because you're creating a 20-year Iraq-style problem and a 100-year integration problem that distracts and delays Taiwanese reunification.

As for Russia - Russia borders Alaska, and Russia's southernmost Kuril Island is 8 kilometers away from mainland Hokkaido. Today Russia has military bases on the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin. This could be invaluable in twenty-five years.

It's always weird and even suspicious that SDF goes on and on about Outer Manchuria and rarely mentions Outer Mongolia, when the former gets you nuked and the latter just requires some long driving.
Myanmar would be a far better canidate because it is more valuable and developed than Mongolia despite nonstop war since independence and there are Han people there in territories that were Chinese plus Sino Tibetan brotherhood.
 

4Tran

New Member
Registered Member
See thats the thing about these contracts, they don't mean much if you are weak. China can claim they only signed it under duress of Russia being stronger in the past or something like that. There are always ways to weasel out of contracts like this. How did Russia even get these lands in the first place? Late Qing was too weak and Russia demanded some land as payment for helping negotiate stuff. China owned Outer Mongolia in like the early 1920s but Russia took it over via force.
The most valuable commodity for China here is reputation. If they are willing to uphold a deal even when the other party is caught in a moment of weakness then other countries are going to be willing to sign deals. This is very useful when the US starts trying to get the rest of the world to boycott China and Chinese companies so I don't see any value is going for a landgrab.

Besides, it's much more useful for China to leave Vladivostok in Russia's hands than to control it themselves. As long as Russia's military has access to the Pacific, then that's an extra headache for Japan and the US to deal with so it's in China's interest to keep the current borders. But I'd say that this is a much less important factor in Beijing's calculations.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
In 1859 all of Outer Manchuria belonged to China. In 1860 this region belonged to Russia. Chinese history did not begin in 1860.
Look at this map of East Asia over time:


China's borders change very frequently in Chinese history. Qing held outer Manchuria for like a blip in Chinese history. The loss of outer Manchuria is really not a priority given a) Russia is nuclear power state, b) US is by far the biggest threat here, c) China has plenty of empty wild lands, outer Manchuria makes little to negligible difference.
 

Randomuser

Senior Member
Registered Member
The most valuable commodity for China here is reputation. If they are willing to uphold a deal even when the other party is caught in a moment of weakness then other countries are going to be willing to sign deals. This is very useful when the US starts trying to get the rest of the world to boycott China and Chinese companies so I don't see any value is going for a landgrab.

Besides, it's much more useful for China to leave Vladivostok in Russia's hands than to control it themselves. As long as Russia's military has access to the Pacific, then that's an extra headache for Japan and the US to deal with so it's in China's interest to keep the current borders. But I'd say that this is a much less important factor in Beijing's calculations.
Reputation huh? Now we are going back to the soft power vs hard power thing again.

You know with all that has happened in just the last few years, I am more convinced that soft power is overrated as hell and really is a second thought to hard power.

I remember people whining about how China has crap soft power and reputation and how they are jealous of places like Japan or South Korea who have it. Well now both are seen as old aging has-been vassal states with low birth rates who now need to consider asking immigrants to come to their countries to save them. South Korea has went up and fallen down in such a short time its amazing. Like they have a president who thought it was a good idea to declare martial law without a plan, Samsung and others are losing out, their sporting performance is going down hill, Kpop is no longer as cool etc.

Meanwhile China who has been slandered for years and years is suddenly "cool". Get real. The reason China is "cool" is the cumulation of decades of hard work to get its technology, living standards, infrastructure etc to world class while everyone else was mocking it. It didn't need to do a huge advertisement show of its weapons. The recent fight between India and Pakistan let China's prowess prove itself on the battlefield rather than arguing on the internet about how good it was on paper. Basically China's prowess can simply no longer be denied and now people are forced to accept it.

Anyway where I am going with this is if China was to do something, its less to do with reputation and more to do with being practical. It is not practical to start landgrabbing Russia when it has its hands full already with US, Taiwan, Philippines, Japan and even India. China already has enough guys to deal with, it doesn't need to make another one. Not having to worry about the north or west parts of China is something it has almost never seen before.

Its just frustrating to watch Russia at the moment given how good it was on paper. Russia is strong enough so it doesn't need China's help etc. Thats fine but please actually live up to it. Otherwise its like a teammate who says he can handle it and it turns out he can't so now the team is fucked.
 
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GulfLander

Major
Registered Member
The attack was pretty brilliant actually, they drove trucks with hidden FPV drones ontop and flew them via cellular + FPV, these bases are all far from Ukraine and they were prepared for incoming long range drones but not tiny FPV drones launched from just outside the fence. A jammer might have helped but that can be bypassed by AI targeting.

I'm actually pretty surprised this obvious attack vector doesn't happen more often, both miltary and terrorist. Anyone can buy FPV drones locally and fly them into military bases with homemade explosives, the only reason the one Chinese vloggers even got caught was because he flew a DJI Mavic that reports its own position. A simliar attack on any American CONUS base is not only doable its not even that hard, prevention really comes down to internal population monitoring to catch it at the planning stages, which Russia obviously failed to do.

The only downside is FPV drones don't have much explosives so most damage was caused by targeting fuel tanks, simply keeping aircrafts unfueled until before takeoff can mitgate a lot of the damage from this vector.

In either case this is an attack vector that's very accessable to everyone, including in the ME, so expect a lot of resources spent on defending against small point blank drone launches by everyone going forward.
What type of truck did they use? Like civilian?
...
I read in a twtr post before that the rare card is a last resort type of card, and once used, must be use completely?
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China can potentially lace rare earth containers with FPV drones. Not remotely controlled ones but these.

Like self destruct??
...
 
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