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- Thread starter bd popeye
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That is India's single sided reliance on GCC oil, I can't see it a sway. People only make themselvs valuable/useful/desirable if they can offer something, not because their own desire/demand/need. A good counter example is that of US, who imports lots of Chinese goods, is only loosing influnece over China day by day.
India-GCC bilaterial trade was 162 B USD in 2023. China-GCC was 286 B USD. Although China is turning green, China's demand on petro product will remain on a different level than India because China's industrial base is many times larger than India. A tiger's tail is still havier than a cat's body. Besides, while India can buy oil from GCC, what can India offer to GCC? Are GCC going to be another Russia stacking up more and more Indian papers in their banck accounts and wonderring what to do with them?
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The thing is the use of petrol of Chinese would likely decrease at least half of the current usage. The use inside china likely limit to just raw materials, while usage of petrol for energy(the majority) would be sharply decrease as full transition to EV( likely achieve faster due to trade war right now)
It's also not indian single side reliance on gulf oil as there were plenty oil supplier elsewhere while global demand for oil keep decreasing.
Don't forget that India itself locate closer to gulf than china while India can't get pipe from Russia as china did. So Chinese would greatly import less gulf oil.
The data you present is true for now, but not in the near future. You can see Pakistan as example.
One thing Gulf countries can do: pay Indian migrants workers in INR directly.
You might have a point on petrol, but that doesn’t account for the other byproducts that refining crude will produce. For example almost all plastics, jet fuel, rocket fuel, diesel just to name a few.
It can be argued that eventually both jet fuel and diesel could be replaced but a lot of other chemicals comes from refining crude and they will still be necessary and in greater and greater quantities. So it still remains to be seen.
There is also the question that in the long run how much of the gulf state’s economy will continue to solely depend on oil. We see them doing anything and everything to diversify their economy, they see the writing on the wall just like everyone else. So again far too early to say.
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Usage of oil for energy will not be gone for a long time and likely will not be fully replaced by batteries. This is for the simple reason that batteries simply do not have anywhere the energy density of oil.
Other than passenger cars there are many applications where batteries are too heavy and too slow for charge and thus will require oil.
Yes, oil can replaced by green hydrogen or other high energy density fuel, but that will likely take a very long time since the less oil is used the cheaper oil will get, so there is less incentive to switch to green energy.
China is a unique case where ev infrastructure is developed enough to transition most passenger cars to ev. But there will still be demand for oil cars even china. For the rest of the world, ev transition will be very slow and likely never happen in this century. Electricity is still scarce in many countries.
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