Degraded munitions can also be restored. Often much quicker than building brand new ones. At least for artillery shells this is true.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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Degraded munitions can also be restored. Often much quicker than building brand new ones. At least for artillery shells this is true.
As Admiral Yamamoto once said: "We need to take Washington and dictate terms of peace to Americans in White House- if we want to win the war." Same applies to China.
US is virtually impervious to damage by China. Until that changes, US has no reason not to want war against China.
The US risks losing it's entire Asian empire to China in event of a war. Japan, SK, Philippines, all could be locked into the Chinese fold if China achieves total victory.
However, this is where propaganda and perception plays a crucial part. US in some ways genuinely fears Russia and it's nuclear arsenal, and thus refuses to escalate the Ukraine war. On the other hand, China's perception, unfairly, is that of a weak shithole state that will collapse the moment pressure is put on it. While this perception will bite the US in a war, changing this perception could perhaps stop the US from immediate escalation.
But in a Taiwan scenario the war will not be decided by artillery tubes, 10000 shells and 10000000 shells will make little difference if PLAN and PLAAF couldn't win the naval fight, which is reliant on missiles, to restore would be much more finicky than a artillery shell.
And as Tokyo experienced, despite them being impervious to America at the start, once the war moved on through island hopping, that was no longer the case.
If the America Japan axis want to take Taiwan, they would not just need to take the island, they would need to take Beijing and dictate terms there.
US might hold delusions that China wouldn't fight with it's full power to defend itself, but that is just copium.
Sorta like what Russians supposedly perceived what Ukraine was like?
Except this will be 100x worse for America, because while Ukraine has limited ability to fire back and limited industry, China is effectively unlimited in both of those points.
A war in Asia is desirable, to bury US aggression once and for all, as well as to destroy traitors within and without China. Of course, most in the government don't want it, but that is because they haven't accepted that America is the enemy yet.
Also what would be the Chinese public/masses at ML and overseas reaction to fight Japanese troops again(!) with the horrifying prospect of the IJA landing on Chinese soil??The CCP must fight wholeheartedly with NO reservations or it will fall as the Chinese people will howl for Japanese blood.That's why Beijing wants to very carefully strategize this TW AR thing-it's no small matter and ideally a very short overwhelming takeover will present West/Japan with a fait accompli and no further fighting allowed-only maybe sanctions.diplomatic blah ,blah,blah
I remember reading Twitter of prominent American politicians and experts during the first few days of the Russian attack. The hawks wanted the US military and NATO to directly shoot down Russian jets and attack Russian army. Their only hesitation was that Putin will use nukes if NATO got directly involved. Putin ordered Shoigu and Gerasimov to put the Russian nuclear forces on the highest alert as a result of the threat of direct NATO involvement. NATO then knew Russia was not playing games and direct NATO involvement would mean all out catastrophe.
Lesson for China is significantly increasing the nuclear arsenal and having advanced delivery capabilities. Conventional weapons won’t deter the imperialists during armed reunification of Taiwan. The no-first-use nuclear policy should be changed as well. If China is attacked, China reserves the right to use nukes as retaliation.
Lesson for China is significantly increasing the nuclear arsenal and having advanced delivery capabilities. Conventional weapons won’t deter the imperialists during armed reunification of Taiwan. The no-first-use nuclear policy should be changed as well. If China is attacked, China reserves the right to use nukes as retaliation.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
China can't win a conventional war with US at this point. I know this is an unpopular opinion here but that's the truth.
A significant portion of PLAN's surface fleet would be decimated by mostly SSNs if they venture out past the 1st IC.
I believe that PLAN's current ASW capabilities will have a very hard time detecting and sinking the Virginia class boats. The fear of being sunk alone will keep most of PLAN assets very close to shore thereby nullifying a significant portion of the naval capabilities.
CV17 and 18 will be a non issue for similar reasons.
JMSDF assets are nothing to laugh at either. Presumably in an all out war, JMSDF and ROK would be actively engaged together with NATO forces and will keep the northern fleet busy.
PLAAF can only effectively fight out to the first IC. With airbases taken out, their combat effectiveness would be significantly reduced.
They also lack a robust AWACS and ELINT coverage during wartime compared to US and NATO forces.
To be fair, I do see devastation of naval and air facilities in Japan, ROK, Phillipines, likely Guam and if everything goes right for Chinese planners, perhaps even Pearl Harbor may be hit hard.
However mainland US will be relatively unscathed while the Chinese mainland will be hit hard. Certainly any military targets and factories etc. will be taken out together with civilian infrastructure like power grids.
In a wartime economy I believe the US can significantly churned out F35s and B21s at a decent rate.
US factories will also not faced destruction unlike Chinese factories. Even 80 yrs later, the contiguos US is still relatively safe from harm thanks to the Pacific ocean in this case.
Geography significantly favors the US. That is a cold hard fact. China is also surrounded by less than friendly neighbors. Two of which have a decently powerful navy and air force.
These two immutable factors alone makes it highly unlikely that it can win an all out toe 2 toe fight.
One thing is certain however.
In an all out war with the US, Asians of all different nationalities; Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Filipinos. Taiwanese etc.... will suffer horrendous casualty rate.
For China to win against the US in a conventional war given the current known constraints such as unfavorable geography, lack of FOBs etc.. it has to significantly improve on things like ASW, including many dozens of new gen SSNs that can at least match current US subs, massive mid air refueling capacity, at least 8 CSGs, numerically more 5th gen fighters and an order of magnitude more super long range hypersonic missiles or AShm capabilities.
A significant portion of PLAN's surface fleet would be decimated by mostly SSNs if they venture out past the 1st IC.
I believe that PLAN's current ASW capabilities will have a very hard time detecting and sinking the Virginia class boats. The fear of being sunk alone will keep most of PLAN assets very close to shore thereby nullifying a significant portion of the naval capabilities.
CV17 and 18 will be a non issue for similar reasons.
JMSDF assets are nothing to laugh at either. Presumably in an all out war, JMSDF and ROK would be actively engaged together with NATO forces and will keep the northern fleet busy.
PLAAF can only effectively fight out to the first IC. With airbases taken out, their combat effectiveness would be significantly reduced.
They also lack a robust AWACS and ELINT coverage during wartime compared to US and NATO forces.
To be fair, I do see devastation of naval and air facilities in Japan, ROK, Phillipines, likely Guam and if everything goes right for Chinese planners, perhaps even Pearl Harbor may be hit hard.
However mainland US will be relatively unscathed while the Chinese mainland will be hit hard. Certainly any military targets and factories etc. will be taken out together with civilian infrastructure like power grids.
In a wartime economy I believe the US can significantly churned out F35s and B21s at a decent rate.
US factories will also not faced destruction unlike Chinese factories. Even 80 yrs later, the contiguos US is still relatively safe from harm thanks to the Pacific ocean in this case.
Geography significantly favors the US. That is a cold hard fact. China is also surrounded by less than friendly neighbors. Two of which have a decently powerful navy and air force.
These two immutable factors alone makes it highly unlikely that it can win an all out toe 2 toe fight.
One thing is certain however.
In an all out war with the US, Asians of all different nationalities; Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Filipinos. Taiwanese etc.... will suffer horrendous casualty rate.
For China to win against the US in a conventional war given the current known constraints such as unfavorable geography, lack of FOBs etc.. it has to significantly improve on things like ASW, including many dozens of new gen SSNs that can at least match current US subs, massive mid air refueling capacity, at least 8 CSGs, numerically more 5th gen fighters and an order of magnitude more super long range hypersonic missiles or AShm capabilities.
Man, you are smoking something good.
Lack of robust AWAC? It is not 2010 bud. Do you know how many KJ-200/KJ-500 PLAAF/PLANAF has? Probably close to 40 and counting. How many E-3 you have in theatre? What are their availability rate?
Do you know how many KQ-200 PLANAF has?
Airbases taken out by what? How many TLAM and AGM-181 can your bombers deliver per day to keep a few of Chinese airbases offline?
Lack of robust AWAC? It is not 2010 bud. Do you know how many KJ-200/KJ-500 PLAAF/PLANAF has? Probably close to 40 and counting. How many E-3 you have in theatre? What are their availability rate?
Without fuelers based on airfields on the First Island Chain, what is the sortie rate of your bombers?
Define “decent”
Without much fuel since they are bombed by the PLA
You don't understand that a failed American invasion will lead to an island hopping campaign that US is powerless to stop due to lack of industrial capability.
China has no need to engage the USN in decisive battle in the deep pacific, and that is the only scenario where US could win.
PLA is untouchable within the FIC. If you don't know geography, the FIC includes SK and Philippines. The former has NK right next to it and the latter has a very poor military.
Which means as war starts, US cannot properly reinforce these areas due to heavy extended Chinese defenses, so if these countries engage in aggression against China, the PLA will put them under occupation.
Then, using new staging bases such as Busan, China will tighten the noose even more on Japan and Ryukyu, which is already facing bombing and soft blockade from day 1.
US is powerless against any part of China except Taiwan. The reason for this powerlessness is distance and lack of bombers. America has less bombers than even the Russian Federation, and coastal Chinese cities are far more defended and lie even further away relative to American bases than cities in western Ukraine do relative to Russia. Also, China unlike Ukraine will do round the clock strikes on those limited airbases.
But in wartime, it wouldn't be close to US cities like Liaoning doing most of the production, it would be the likes of Chongqing and Chengdu, which have so much strategic depth they may as well be on another planet as far as US is concerned.
If a Virginia meets a Yuan, the Virginia will be at a detection disadvantage. That said, a Virginia can always outrun a Yuan, so it should never be an issue. Except in this case, US is the one attacking, so they need to venture into advanced SSK infested waters, or keep the Virginias useless in the furthest reaches of the second island chain. Besides that, China also has the most or possible 2nd most well developed surface ASW in the world.
Between these 2 factors, the US undersea fleet is a threat only where SSKs and ASW cannot reach, and as outlined above, China will follow an island hopping campaign, successively ramping up war production as they go.
Your post is either extreme ignorance of how wars work or an exercise in glorious American nationalist copium.
Consider in ww2, the USSR never had the means to truly "reach" core German territory during the most decisive battles in the war. Every such engagement was fought inside German RKs. By the time USSR forces threatened the German homeland, the war was a foregone conclusion. Likewise, if America loses Philippines, SK, Ryukyu and Japan, it will be far far too late to stop a total defeat.
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