Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Would that statement do any something if they adopted the pro-American stance after being attacked by China? I think not.

Voluntarily? Not. Go back to my previous comment. There is no way they can do this voluntarily, only if they are FORCED to adopt this posture, I gave a very clear example of this.

Really?

Are you aware that the US conducts exercises with Indonesia annually? The Garuda Shield is one of them, even Australia is invited to participate, later this year, the Super Garuda Shield 2022 had the smaller participation of Australia, but the exercise under the command of the Americans and the Indonesian army, these exercises are carried out more than a decade ago. Indonesia also closed many joint exercises with EU countries this year.

Regarding disagreements, we cannot forget the series of maritime confrontations between the Indonesian navy and Chinese fishing boats, which reinforced the Indonesian side in having to strengthen the defense around the Natuna archipelago that China claims both countries have overlapping claims to the nearby waters that Indonesia calls the Sea of Natuna.

Are we going to expect neutrality from a country with a this historic?
They have like 6 frigates and 5 corvettes, all antiques less capable than even Luda class.

If they wanna join US side, they're gonna have to protect themselves since its not like US will have any air defenses or ships to spare.

China doesn't even need to use expensive munitions on them, just swarm their infrastructure over with cheap suicide drones. Indonesia does not want this fate, therefore if an ultimatum to fuck off comes from China's side, they would do so. They gain nothing from joining and have everything to lose.

If US planes just overflew Indonesia, that alone would not be seen as a declaration of war from Indonesia. China would just intercept the US planes as usual. If the wrecks fall on something, they will blame US for sending the planes in the first place, not Indonesia. But if Indonesia has a violent reaction to a few B52s crashing on their territory, then it can't be helped.
 

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
But hey, since the Wanwanese already provided an example, I think now is the time for China to publish a "United Front" game, where people from as many of the 56 ethnic groups in China as possible are united in the modern era of the People's War against separatist forces on Taiwan + malignant foreign forces aiming to destroy the civilization state of China - under the flags and banners of the PRC, CPC and PLA.

Better to have a united front game with the Cree, Lakota, Cherokee, and Mexicans. The first nations united is a beautiful sight.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
@Sinnavuuty

Ask yourself what does Indonesia gain by siding with the USA instead of remaining strictly neutral?
The answer is that Indonesia loses if it sides with the USA

---

If you look at the latest ISEAS-Yusof survey data below, it clearly shows that ASEAN (including Indonesia):

1. Recognise that China is the pre-eminent power in the region from an economic, military and political standpoint. The US trails far behind.
2. Neutrality is by far the preferred option amongst ASEAN decision-makers between a US-China contest, where ASEAN countries are not directly threatened. In Indonesia, 84% of the general public supports neutrality.

Your assertion that Indonesia would indirectly support the USA is not supported by the evidence

Furthermore, the trend continues to favour China. The growth gap between the US and China has continued to widen over the past few years (in other words China has grown slower, but US growth has slowed down even more). In terms of actual output of goods and services, China is already 30% larger than the US when measured using PPP. And ultimately, economic heft is what fuels all other power (military, economic, industrial, political). Betting on the US given this situation is probably a losing proposition in the long-run.

We can also see Singapore calling for a new global non-aligned movement to avoid getting sucked into a China-US competition.

Sources below

rfa.org/english/news/china/survey-04052022162054.html

aseantoday.com/2021/02/report-shows-southeast-asias-views-on-us-china-are-shifting/

thediplomat.com/2022/02/southeast-asian-elite-survey-paints-complex-picture-of-china-ties/

straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/new-non-aligned-movement-needed-for-countries-to-keep-collaborating-amid-us-china-tensions-vivian-balakrishnan
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
@Sinnavuuty

Ask yourself what does Indonesia gain by siding with the USA instead of remaining strictly neutral?
The answer is that Indonesia loses if it sides with the USA

---

If you look at the latest ISEAS-Yusof survey data below, it clearly shows that ASEAN (including Indonesia):

1. Recognise that China is the pre-eminent power in the region from an economic, military and political standpoint. The US trails far behind.
2. Neutrality is by far the preferred option amongst ASEAN decision-makers between a US-China contest, where ASEAN countries are not directly threatened. In Indonesia, 84% of the general public supports neutrality.

Your assertion that Indonesia would indirectly support the USA is not supported by the evidence

Furthermore, the trend continues to favour China. The growth gap between the US and China has continued to widen over the past few years (in other words China has grown slower, but US growth has slowed down even more). In terms of actual output of goods and services, China is already 30% larger than the US when measured using PPP. And ultimately, economic heft is what fuels all other power (military, economic, industrial, political). Betting on the US given this situation is probably a losing proposition in the long-run.

We can also see Singapore calling for a new global non-aligned movement to avoid getting sucked into a China-US competition.

Sources below

rfa.org/english/news/china/survey-04052022162054.html

aseantoday.com/2021/02/report-shows-southeast-asias-views-on-us-china-are-shifting/

thediplomat.com/2022/02/southeast-asian-elite-survey-paints-complex-picture-of-china-ties/

straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/new-non-aligned-movement-needed-for-countries-to-keep-collaborating-amid-us-china-tensions-vivian-balakrishnan
You know what that reminds me of? Finland and Sweden.

6 years ago, less than 25% of Finns supported Finland's decision to join NATO.
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How did this end in 2022?

Interestingly, the same survey shows an increase in the number of Finns who see Russia as “a negative influence”, while support for NATO membership was also decreasing. The situation ended up quite different from what the surveys pointed out, don't you think?

By the way, look at the rejection of his own source: Indonesians' view of China worsens compared to 11 years ago. While rejection of the West is also on the rise, China's is trumping it.

In the second source that you posted yourself, look at the indicative:
More than 60% of respondents would prefer to see Southeast Asia aligned with the US rather than China, up from 53.6% in 2020. That said, more than 95% still believe ASEAN can avoid allying with either of the two. powers and more than 60% of respondents said they expect US-China trade tensions to ease in the coming years.

Tensions have not decreased, on the contrary, they are increasing.

Even more in the source itself:
Report shows growing confidence in US and anxiety over China
The ISEAS survey found that trust in the US as a strategic partner has grown dramatically among respondents, from 34.9% in 2020 to 55.4% in 2021.

China was the only major power to see a growing level of distrust among Southeast Asia, with 63% saying they had little or no confidence that Beijing "will contribute to global peace, security, prosperity and governance", up from 51.5 % in 2019. But most of this distrust of China was due to concerns that it might abuse its economic and military power, rather than doubts about its leadership, capability or reliability.

In the third source:
But while China's growth has left an impression on Southeast Asian elites, it hasn't created much confidence. The survey report found that the most trusted major power in Southeast Asia was Japan, which commanded an overall confidence level of 54.2%, although that number has declined significantly from 68.2% in 2021, followed closely by the US. , in which 52.8% of respondents expressed confidence.

The numbers for China were almost the opposite. Most respondents (58.1%) expressed “little trust” (33.3%) or “no trust” (24.8%) in China to “do the right thing” to contribute to peace, security, prosperity and global governance. Of those who expressed distrust towards China, 49.6% expressed fear that China could use economic and military power to threaten their country's interests and sovereignty. Nearly a quarter said they did not consider China "a responsible or credible power".

The funny thing is that this source contrasts heavily with the growing role of the Chinese economy in Asia compared to the other two sources you cited yourself.

More from your source:
In last year's report, the most striking finding was the widespread preference that the region's elites expressed for the US over China. When asked what power they would hypothetically align themselves with, 61.5% of respondents in 2021 said they would prefer to align themselves with the US, compared to 38.5% with China. This year's findings were broadly similar, with 57% expressing a preference for aligning with the US rather than 43% for China.

As some observers noted last year, however, this finding was – and is – a bit misleading, as the preferred option for ASEAN countries was to avoid making such a choice in the first place. Elsewhere, when asked how ASEAN should better manage Sino-US competition, only 11.1% of respondents recommended that Southeast Asian nations choose a side between one of the two major powers. Some 26.6 percent said the bloc should avoid making such a choice, while 46.1 percent preferred the more active approach of "strengthening ASEAN's resilience and unity to ward off pressure from the two great powers." (Whether that would be possible remains in doubt; more than 70% of respondents said the Southeast Asian bloc was “slow and ineffective and therefore cannot handle fluid political and economic developments.”)

As for the fourth and last source, I don't know why I posted it, the article is clearly focused on what the Singaporean politician thinks they should have in a bipolar world, he doesn't have the word for all Asian nations, while here the case is only with deference to Indonesia.

You can believe what you want, I untouchably maintain my position that many indirectly supported the US and will speak openly about neutrality, recent cases abound.
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
In the third source:
But while China's growth has left an impression on Southeast Asian elites, it hasn't created much confidence. The survey report found that the most trusted major power in Southeast Asia was Japan, which commanded an overall confidence level of 54.2%, although that number has declined significantly from 68.2% in 2021, followed closely by the US. , in which 52.8% of respondents expressed confidence.

The numbers for China were almost the opposite. Most respondents (58.1%) expressed “little trust” (33.3%) or “no trust” (24.8%) in China to “do the right thing” to contribute to peace, security, prosperity and global governance. Of those who expressed distrust towards China, 49.6% expressed fear that China could use economic and military power to threaten their country's interests and sovereignty. Nearly a quarter said they did not consider China "a responsible or credible power".
Everyone has probably heard of a meme: the Vietnamese and Koreans have territorial claims on China that are big enough for them to divide the border between the two countries by the Yangtze River and annex China entirely.

These delusional people are crazy and unrealistic, but they also show that there is no point in trying to please others, and there is nothing called "trust" in the relationship between countries. The ambition of a country is not completely related to its strength, what they expect us to do is not necessarily a good thing.

Maybe a few more aircraft carriers will give them "trust".

Some people think that the most powerful foreign trade product of Americans is "security protection", including protecting the security of other countries and making other countries unsafe.

It's very imperialist, but sadly, many countries seem to only agree with these values.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
You know what that reminds me of? Finland and Sweden.

6 years ago, less than 25% of Finns supported Finland's decision to join NATO.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

How did this end in 2022?

Interestingly, the same survey shows an increase in the number of Finns who see Russia as “a negative influence”, while support for NATO membership was also decreasing. The situation ended up quite different from what the surveys pointed out, don't you think?

By the way, look at the rejection of his own source: Indonesians' view of China worsens compared to 11 years ago. While rejection of the West is also on the rise, China's is trumping it.

In the second source that you posted yourself, look at the indicative:
More than 60% of respondents would prefer to see Southeast Asia aligned with the US rather than China, up from 53.6% in 2020. That said, more than 95% still believe ASEAN can avoid allying with either of the two. powers and more than 60% of respondents said they expect US-China trade tensions to ease in the coming years.

Tensions have not decreased, on the contrary, they are increasing.

Even more in the source itself:
Report shows growing confidence in US and anxiety over China
The ISEAS survey found that trust in the US as a strategic partner has grown dramatically among respondents, from 34.9% in 2020 to 55.4% in 2021.

China was the only major power to see a growing level of distrust among Southeast Asia, with 63% saying they had little or no confidence that Beijing "will contribute to global peace, security, prosperity and governance", up from 51.5 % in 2019. But most of this distrust of China was due to concerns that it might abuse its economic and military power, rather than doubts about its leadership, capability or reliability.

In the third source:
But while China's growth has left an impression on Southeast Asian elites, it hasn't created much confidence. The survey report found that the most trusted major power in Southeast Asia was Japan, which commanded an overall confidence level of 54.2%, although that number has declined significantly from 68.2% in 2021, followed closely by the US. , in which 52.8% of respondents expressed confidence.

The numbers for China were almost the opposite. Most respondents (58.1%) expressed “little trust” (33.3%) or “no trust” (24.8%) in China to “do the right thing” to contribute to peace, security, prosperity and global governance. Of those who expressed distrust towards China, 49.6% expressed fear that China could use economic and military power to threaten their country's interests and sovereignty. Nearly a quarter said they did not consider China "a responsible or credible power".

The funny thing is that this source contrasts heavily with the growing role of the Chinese economy in Asia compared to the other two sources you cited yourself.

More from your source:
In last year's report, the most striking finding was the widespread preference that the region's elites expressed for the US over China. When asked what power they would hypothetically align themselves with, 61.5% of respondents in 2021 said they would prefer to align themselves with the US, compared to 38.5% with China. This year's findings were broadly similar, with 57% expressing a preference for aligning with the US rather than 43% for China.

As some observers noted last year, however, this finding was – and is – a bit misleading, as the preferred option for ASEAN countries was to avoid making such a choice in the first place. Elsewhere, when asked how ASEAN should better manage Sino-US competition, only 11.1% of respondents recommended that Southeast Asian nations choose a side between one of the two major powers. Some 26.6 percent said the bloc should avoid making such a choice, while 46.1 percent preferred the more active approach of "strengthening ASEAN's resilience and unity to ward off pressure from the two great powers." (Whether that would be possible remains in doubt; more than 70% of respondents said the Southeast Asian bloc was “slow and ineffective and therefore cannot handle fluid political and economic developments.”)

As for the fourth and last source, I don't know why I posted it, the article is clearly focused on what the Singaporean politician thinks they should have in a bipolar world, he doesn't have the word for all Asian nations, while here the case is only with deference to Indonesia.

You can believe what you want, I untouchably maintain my position that many indirectly supported the US and will speak openly about neutrality, recent cases abound.
doesnt seem like these reports say much more than ASEAN countries wishing for a balance of power between China and US in the region...sounds perfectly reasonable to me.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
You know what that reminds me of? Finland and Sweden.

6 years ago, less than 25% of Finns supported Finland's decision to join NATO.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

How did this end in 2022?

Interestingly, the same survey shows an increase in the number of Finns who see Russia as “a negative influence”, while support for NATO membership was also decreasing. The situation ended up quite different from what the surveys pointed out, don't you think?

By the way, look at the rejection of his own source: Indonesians' view of China worsens compared to 11 years ago. While rejection of the West is also on the rise, China's is trumping it.

In the second source that you posted yourself, look at the indicative:
More than 60% of respondents would prefer to see Southeast Asia aligned with the US rather than China, up from 53.6% in 2020. That said, more than 95% still believe ASEAN can avoid allying with either of the two. powers and more than 60% of respondents said they expect US-China trade tensions to ease in the coming years.

Tensions have not decreased, on the contrary, they are increasing.

Even more in the source itself:
Report shows growing confidence in US and anxiety over China
The ISEAS survey found that trust in the US as a strategic partner has grown dramatically among respondents, from 34.9% in 2020 to 55.4% in 2021.

China was the only major power to see a growing level of distrust among Southeast Asia, with 63% saying they had little or no confidence that Beijing "will contribute to global peace, security, prosperity and governance", up from 51.5 % in 2019. But most of this distrust of China was due to concerns that it might abuse its economic and military power, rather than doubts about its leadership, capability or reliability.

In the third source:
But while China's growth has left an impression on Southeast Asian elites, it hasn't created much confidence. The survey report found that the most trusted major power in Southeast Asia was Japan, which commanded an overall confidence level of 54.2%, although that number has declined significantly from 68.2% in 2021, followed closely by the US. , in which 52.8% of respondents expressed confidence.

The numbers for China were almost the opposite. Most respondents (58.1%) expressed “little trust” (33.3%) or “no trust” (24.8%) in China to “do the right thing” to contribute to peace, security, prosperity and global governance. Of those who expressed distrust towards China, 49.6% expressed fear that China could use economic and military power to threaten their country's interests and sovereignty. Nearly a quarter said they did not consider China "a responsible or credible power".

The funny thing is that this source contrasts heavily with the growing role of the Chinese economy in Asia compared to the other two sources you cited yourself.

More from your source:
In last year's report, the most striking finding was the widespread preference that the region's elites expressed for the US over China. When asked what power they would hypothetically align themselves with, 61.5% of respondents in 2021 said they would prefer to align themselves with the US, compared to 38.5% with China. This year's findings were broadly similar, with 57% expressing a preference for aligning with the US rather than 43% for China.

As some observers noted last year, however, this finding was – and is – a bit misleading, as the preferred option for ASEAN countries was to avoid making such a choice in the first place. Elsewhere, when asked how ASEAN should better manage Sino-US competition, only 11.1% of respondents recommended that Southeast Asian nations choose a side between one of the two major powers. Some 26.6 percent said the bloc should avoid making such a choice, while 46.1 percent preferred the more active approach of "strengthening ASEAN's resilience and unity to ward off pressure from the two great powers." (Whether that would be possible remains in doubt; more than 70% of respondents said the Southeast Asian bloc was “slow and ineffective and therefore cannot handle fluid political and economic developments.”)

As for the fourth and last source, I don't know why I posted it, the article is clearly focused on what the Singaporean politician thinks they should have in a bipolar world, he doesn't have the word for all Asian nations, while here the case is only with deference to Indonesia.

You can believe what you want, I untouchably maintain my position that many indirectly supported the US and will speak openly about neutrality, recent cases abound.

Russia has almost zero economic/military influence over even Finland.

For example, Finland and the rest of Europe have cut off Russia. Yet there is barely any effect on GDP growth (1%?) to Finland.

In comparison, prior to Patchwork's departure, he mentioned a study (presumably an updated version of an old declassified RAND paper) with an estimate of a 25-35% GDP decline which applies to both the US and China. That is comparable to the 30% decline experienced by the USA during Great Depression.

Now, China is geographically the same size as the continent-spanning US. Both countries are/can become broadly self-sufficient and have a lot of defensive military strength so that it is very difficult to comprehensively attack their civilian sectors.

In comparison, Indonesia is a far smaller, poorer and less-developed economy, which is critically reliant on internal sea and air traffic between its many islands.
So if Indonesia becomes a war zone, Indonesia should experience a greater economic hit than either China or the USA.

Also consider how China has the capacity to very quickly produce very large numbers of simple low-cost Shaheed-136 loitering drone munitions that we've seen in Ukraine. A version with a somewhat longer range of 3000km would cover most of Indonesia, which includes Java which has half of Indonesia's population. And as we've seen in Ukraine, even a modest number of these drones has the capacity to take out electricity and water supplies. If this were to happen, we'd see an Indonesian GDP collapse in excess of 60% (Ukraine was at a 50% decline even before Russia recently started attacking Ukraine's electricity grid). Russia has no such capacity to produce large numbers of drones of any type.

So from the point of view of an Indonesian policymaker or the average Indonesian, it makes a lot of sense to be neutral in a US-China conflict.
I reckon Indonesian might get away with *just* a 10-20% GDP decline if it remains neutral.
That is a heck of a lot better than a 60%+ GDP decline if Indonesia sides with the US.
 
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