Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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zhangjim

Junior Member
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This quora answer argues that TW would just wait underground
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QUORA's content on the military is really unbearable to read.
Remember those comics I shared? Do they really think that M1 tanks can use underground garages to avoid air attacks and move between blocks?

The Ukrainians have proved that even though they can make fighter planes take off, they will soon be shot down by the Russians.
“ Taiwan will send the best jet fighters”,This is another good example of superstition in Western weapons. The F-16 is not TIE fighter.
"Once the PLA fails the first attack, the US and Japan will step in",I think he is Taiwanese. Although Russia was not very successful, NATO only provided limited support to Ukraine, and did not attack the Russians. I don't know how the United States and Japan will send planes and transport ships to a blocked island.

Some individuals believe that the size of the island of Taiwan determines the limited area where they can hide.
 

SlothmanAllen

Senior Member
Registered Member
What does China do if the US avoids the conflict and simply resorts to economic sanctions against China? What if the US is able to build an international coalition on sanctions? I feel like sanctions and global perception turning against China is a much bigger risk then US intervention!
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
What does China do if the US avoids the conflict and simply resorts to economic sanctions against China? What if the US is able to build an international coalition on sanctions? I feel like sanctions and global perception turning against China is a much bigger risk then US intervention!
This is the most likely scenario, US is bluffing invasion but there are so many clues that says US doesn't have anywhere near the power to succeed, and that US itself knows it.

Some people here act like if China doesn't have overwhelming advantage anywhere on the globe, US will invade Taiwan, but even in the early 2000s when China barely had an army, they still didn't attack.

One factor might be that US is simply deterred over the risk of MAD when attacking a nuclear power's core territory. Another might be that they thought China could mobilize and just overwhelm them over the long run, Kiev style.

However, US is going to keep isolating itself economically, so China should reduce their use of resources from US, but also potential members of America's iron curtain, such as Australia, Canada and Mexico. This would impact raw resource prices and reduce the market size which CN companies can reach.

If America wants to cut ties with China, they need to telegraph it by first recovering as much assets as possible from within China. As soon as warning signals for that flash, China should freeze American assets because a complete cutoff will happen soon anyways.
 

Lime

Junior Member
Registered Member
What does China do if the US avoids the conflict and simply resorts to economic sanctions against China? What if the US is able to build an international coalition on sanctions? I feel like sanctions and global perception turning against China is a much bigger risk then US intervention!
For what reason? Taiwan is a part of China under UN rule. Except the west, no country will follow US sactions. furthermore, China doesn't care about US sactions. After unifying, US has nothing to impede their development.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I don't see the US sending troops into Ukraine. It's because they're afraid of the consequences. What makes China any different? Yes Americans would be more upset when non-whites offend them but then Americans would less likely to sacrifice themselves to save non-whites. If anyone saw that 60 Minutes story the Taiwanese think China wants their technology. Their technology infrastructure would be the first thing I would destroy because that's the only thing that makes Taiwan important for the West. What you see in common in Hong Kong activists and with Taiwanese is their conceitedness that they themselves are important to China. Hong Kongers personally think they made China's economy hence why they thought they could hold themselves hostage in making demands to China. Taiwanese think China wants them personally because they're so valuable for technology. It's not a coincidence that people who have inferiority complexes would grab at any opportunity to make themselves out to be uniquely important. It's so easy to take that away from them.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
I don't see the US sending troops into Ukraine. It's because they're afraid of the consequences. What makes China any different? Yes Americans would be more upset when non-whites offend them but then Americans would less likely to sacrifice themselves to save non-whites. If anyone saw that 60 Minutes story the Taiwanese think China wants their technology. Their technology infrastructure would be the first thing I would destroy because that's the only thing that makes Taiwan important for the West. What you see in common in Hong Kong activists and with Taiwanese is their conceitedness that they themselves are important to China. Hong Kongers personally think they made China's economy hence why they thought they could hold themselves hostage in making demands to China. Taiwanese think China wants them personally because they're so valuable for technology. It's not a coincidence that people who have inferiority complexes would grab at any opportunity to make themselves out to be uniquely important. It's so easy to take that away from them.
Many Taiwanese separatists don't realize that if the American invader comes, one of the top items on the PLA to do list for will be scorched earth to prevent any Chinese tech from falling into the hands of Americans.
 

infinity_wor;d

New Member
Registered Member
Many Taiwanese separatists don't realize that if the American invader comes, one of the top items on the PLA to do list for will be scorched earth to prevent any Chinese tech from falling into the hands of Americans.
More likely, Americans will do the same thing first before they escape. For taking those techs all the way to America is just too difficult.
 
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