Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

coolgod said:

You used an example to mock the intelligence of Chinese citizens when in fact you were blind to your own stupidity. There is absolutely nothing wrong with prepping salt in case of nuclear war, in fact salt is very useful and also essential in post-nuclear war cuisine (try cooking basic dishes without salt). Yes, iodine salt can not replace the role of potassium iodide (KI) pills in saturating the thyroid, but they are still essential for emergency preparation. Best of all salt is cheap, doesn't go bad, easy to store, and replace. It is hard to come up with a better ingredient in a prepper's survival kit.

If you don't have enough salt you will certainly die within a few months. If you didn't take KI pills before exposure to Iodine-131 there is a chance you may develop thyroid cancer many years down the line, a cancer which has a 98% survival rate. Besides the fact that it is impossible for Chinese people to stock up on KI pills all at once before exposure, salt is clearly the superior item for survival prepping.

Most people are uneducated with regard to military emergencies, please don't make it into a Chinese problem.

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No matter what you think, "rushing salt for fear of a nuclear accident in Japan" is still a classic example of how often Chinese society is ridiculed.
The fact is that people think that iodine added to table salt can resist Japan's nuclear contamination.

I think we're seriously off topic, and this ridiculous farce that is widely known in China is not a "smart move."

At present, the most serious threat of infiltration on the island of Taiwan is the Internet, which has been quite successful in creating group divisions and confrontations, and considering that almost every year there are rumors that "there is a problem with the Three Gorges Dam", it is necessary to be wary of the enemy rendering small-scale destruction into a serious social panic in wartime.

One key point of interest i've observed vis-a-vis the Ukraine conflict which will also apply to any Taiwan contingency is the disconnect between the Western Leaders and the Western People.
Currently support for the Ukraine war is declining sharply as living conditions in europe deteriorate due to rising inflation and cost of fuel such that we are seeing protests and mass unrests against the war...and yet the response of the european elites are to press on with the war. This reminds me of the attitude of Germany in 1917 where the author Remarque commented in All Quiet on the Western Front, that "if there is no armistice, then there will be Revolution".

This comparison can also be observed in a future Taiwan conflict; the US for eg is priming its people and framing the conflict against China to be one where its superpower status is at stake, an "all of society response" is needed as US Official Kiron Skinner put it. Given the history of the US, this could also mean internment camps for Chinese Americans.

After the initial jingoism, if the war carries on to become a war of attrition across the Pacific, this could also similarly inspire similar mass unrest in US aligned societies, should they join in with the US in this future conflict.

Chevalier said:

One key point of interest i've observed vis-a-vis the Ukraine conflict which will also apply to any Taiwan contingency is the disconnect between the Western Leaders and the Western People.
Currently support for the Ukraine war is declining sharply as living conditions in europe deteriorate due to rising inflation and cost of fuel such that we are seeing protests and mass unrests against the war...and yet the response of the european elites are to press on with the war. This reminds me of the attitude of Germany in 1917 where the author Remarque commented in All Quiet on the Western Front, that "if there is no armistice, then there will be Revolution".

This comparison can also be observed in a future Taiwan conflict; the US for eg is priming its people and framing the conflict against China to be one where its superpower status is at stake, an "all of society response" is needed as US Official Kiron Skinner put it. Given the history of the US, this could also mean internment camps for Chinese Americans.

After the initial jingoism, if the war carries on to become a war of attrition across the Pacific, this could also similarly inspire similar mass unrest in US aligned societies, should they join in with the US in this future conflict.

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They can always pull a 1984 and integrate all the five eyed countries under Oceania.

siegecrossbow said:

They can always pull a 1984 and integrate all the five eyed countries under Oceania.

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Two of the five are already having disloyal thoughts.
One of the remaining three may not exist in the current form for much longer.

siegecrossbow said:

They can always pull a 1984 and integrate all the five eyed countries under Oceania.

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Judging by historical western attitudes towards China and what gets promoted in the noosphere of the west ie reddit, 4chan, youtube etc, there's a tendency to use China as a bogeyman to unite all caucasian white nations under a common empire, a common empire that happens to be led by anglo english speaking nations.

I think there's a greater than 50% chance that a future conflict between the US and China will involve the entire "golden billion' of the Atlanticist West given how much propaganda there is about how the rise of China is so detrimental to their own sense of privilege.

..and just as i had written that, the anglo propaganda machine decided to transfer all of their own white guilt onto China; china, you see is actually the new white supremacists, not the Anglos who formed the racially exclusive Five Eyes and AUKUS club:

Chevalier said:

Judging by historical western attitudes towards China and what gets promoted in the noosphere of the west ie reddit, 4chan, youtube etc, there's a tendency to use China as a bogeyman to unite all caucasian white nations under a common empire, a common empire that happens to be led by anglo english speaking nations.

I think there's a greater than 50% chance that a future conflict between the US and China will involve the entire "golden billion' of the Atlanticist West given how much propaganda there is about how the rise of China is so detrimental to their own sense of privilege.

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50%? More like 100%

Chevalier said:

..and just as i had written that, the anglo propaganda machine decided to transfer all of their own white guilt onto China; china, you see is actually the new white supremacists, not the Anglos who formed the racially exclusive Five Eyes and AUKUS club:

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Yeah, I had a read of that article and my eyebrows were raised more than once with the arguments the author was making. Is it so difficult to spell out that the global south is kinda sick of the West's interventionist schlick and rather stick with a more stable/predictable partner?

China is pretty consistent in its foreign policy, it's not based on "whiteness" or anything, they are simply providing an alternative to the current global order.

Back on the military side of things, I think this war is really cementing the role of UAVs in modern warfare. I am not sure if anyone, even China is fully prepared for mass drone warfare.

Don't get me wrong, China's UAV capabilities is probably only matched by the US, but a less talked about aspect is the ability to defend against such attacks. No country right now really has a cost effective defense against drone swarms. Missiles are expensive and guns are short ranged, the only remaining option of EW is unproven until conflict actually begins.

tankphobia said:

Back on the military side of things, I think this war is really cementing the role of UAVs in modern warfare. I am not sure if anyone, even China is fully prepared for mass drone warfare.

Don't get me wrong, China's UAV capabilities is probably only matched by the US, but a less talked about aspect is the ability to defend against such attacks. No country right now really has a cost effective defense against drone swarms. Missiles are expensive and guns are short ranged, the only remaining option of EW is unproven until conflict actually begins.

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EW doesn't work if the drone doesn't communicate externally like Shahed-136. Then it's just guns and cover/concealment. But here's the thing for China's opponents: China is huge, with tons of cover and concealment. Chinese forces operate from this huge rear. But they operate from small islands, with 0 room for maneuver, 0 cover and 0 concealment.

What is to stop 1000x Shahed-136 style drones with 1500 km range, 50 kg warhead from blowing up their entire air defense network and kicking the door open for ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and manned planes, and there's nowhere for them to run?