I'm not sure what definition you're using for "2022 technology", but I would say the technological basis for breaking MAD is much closer to being feasible than a fusion baseload power grid. "All" China would need would be quiet enough subs with sensitive enough instruments fielded in enough numbers that they could kill almost every US nuke during the first strike, a very sizable orbital fleet (bigger than Starlink) along the lines of Brilliant Pebbles for the ICBMs, and an IADS capable of denying access to every stealth bomber the US could field. So, impossible for the near future, but not really because the technology doesn't exist (aside from maybe a Brilliant Pebble style system, which still has to answer questions but nowhere near as much as nuclear fusion baseload power), more because it would require a very, very advanced military apparatus, far beyond what the PLA currently has, some in areas like nukes where the PLA is still significantly behind the other powers. It would also be very expensive.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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solarz
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The current behavior of the US is attributable to its incoherent China strategy. Or rather, it's coherent political system. US politicians, as @Patchwork_Chimera has noted, are not real human beings. Only a rare few live in the real world, while the rest live in a delusional bubble.
I have said many times that Japan just wants to encourage the United States to participate in the war, so that they can hide behind and pick up the spoils of war.
When they make statements that openly interfere in the Taiwan issue, they emphasize the "US-Japan alliance".
This means two things:
1. When the United States enters the war, they will join the war without hesitation
2. They will try to get Americans to participate in the war, even if they will pay some price
When you see Poles hating and cursing Russia so much, you can imagine how a Japan with thousands of years of ambition and an even darker and sicker mentality looks at China.
Unlike the emotive Polish rhetoric, the Japanese created a whole theory from the late 19th century to try to argue that it was a mistake for China to maintain its integrity.
Moreover, from historical experience, these arrogant and reckless men will take the initiative to attack even if they have no advantages. Their wishful thinking that the situation is favorable to them has been embedded in their genes.
Let me give another example about the last part. When the Manchus established the Qing Dynasty, Japan was proud of its independence. But the reason is very absurd: the Qing Dynasty did not even attack Japan like Kublai Khan, which shows that the Japanese are very powerful, and the Manchus must be afraid of them.
It’s not the system itself, it’s the current crop of “leaders”. It’s not just China policy, it’s also a bunch of other incoherent ideas like ivermectin, “school choice” (ie subsidizing private school for the wealthy), no clue on gun crime, no clue on opioids, etc.
Really China should be the LEAST of their worries because #1 and only point, China has zero plans to launch kinetic attacks on the USA.
Imagine if Chinese Communist-Marsha Blackburn or Ron DeSantis was in charge of Wuhan.. probably there would have been 200,000 deaths minimum.
@AndrewS it seems like you have made this comment on multiple threads, so I will just address it here.
Here is a personal tally of available aircraft from etc alone just looking at fighter and bombers in terms of number of brigades (include plaaf also). I didn't list any j7 units here.
2 j20
3 j16
2 j10c + 1 j10a
3 jh7/a
2 su30
1 j11b
1 j11a
1 h6k
1 h6j
1 h6m
1 h6h
Etc is quite loaded here with 7 brigades of front line aircraft (j20, j16, j10c), another 5 4th brigades and 3 jh7 units. You are dealing with about 350 4th or 5th gen fighter, another 40 new h6s and 100 older h6s and jh7s. In terms of pmai, the numbers will be a lot smaller than that. But that is a very large air force by itself. If I compare this to any international air force, only USAF and usn would have stronger aerial fleet than etc air force.
This northern theater
1 j20
1 j16
1 j10c, 1 j10b, 2 j10a
2 j11b
3 jh7a
This is not terrible as a defensive air force, but it really has very little striking power and a lot of short legged fighter brigades. If ntc is to carry the burden of missions into Japan, then it is certainly not built that way. Southern theater has receive more attention than northern theater. I don't know how realistic it would be to expect central theater to operate with northern theater to utilize those h6s and j16s. So if I were pla, I would move to strengthen this theater. It will need at least one more j20 brigade and 1 more j16 brigade and at least 1 h6k or h6j regiment imo. Again, ntc to me seems very defense oriented whereas etc and stc are more offensive oriented.
Here is a personal tally of available aircraft from etc alone just looking at fighter and bombers in terms of number of brigades (include plaaf also). I didn't list any j7 units here.
2 j20
3 j16
2 j10c + 1 j10a
3 jh7/a
2 su30
1 j11b
1 j11a
1 h6k
1 h6j
1 h6m
1 h6h
Etc is quite loaded here with 7 brigades of front line aircraft (j20, j16, j10c), another 5 4th brigades and 3 jh7 units. You are dealing with about 350 4th or 5th gen fighter, another 40 new h6s and 100 older h6s and jh7s. In terms of pmai, the numbers will be a lot smaller than that. But that is a very large air force by itself. If I compare this to any international air force, only USAF and usn would have stronger aerial fleet than etc air force.
This northern theater
1 j20
1 j16
1 j10c, 1 j10b, 2 j10a
2 j11b
3 jh7a
This is not terrible as a defensive air force, but it really has very little striking power and a lot of short legged fighter brigades. If ntc is to carry the burden of missions into Japan, then it is certainly not built that way. Southern theater has receive more attention than northern theater. I don't know how realistic it would be to expect central theater to operate with northern theater to utilize those h6s and j16s. So if I were pla, I would move to strengthen this theater. It will need at least one more j20 brigade and 1 more j16 brigade and at least 1 h6k or h6j regiment imo. Again, ntc to me seems very defense oriented whereas etc and stc are more offensive oriented.
Yes. I completely agree.
For the Taiwan airstrikes, remember that Suixi in STC has been seen operating 1000km away in the vicinity of Taiwan, as per Deino.
There are other bomber and heavyweight fighters in STC and NTC at bases which are at a similar distance to Taiwan, so we could expect them to contribute sorties to Taiwan.
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As for NTC, yes, I know it is currently configured for a short-ranged Korean scenario.
But what I'm predicting is that in the coming years, NTC will see additions of long-range fighters which are capable of a 1000km mission to Japan.
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Ok. The UK Telegraph newspaper have reported twice (from unnamed diplomatic sources) over the past month that if China launches a Taiwan military operation, China estimates there will be a 2 day window before the US and Japan will respond.
If that is true, I see it as a full-on shock and awe campaign, designed to leave the Taiwanese military and Taiwanese economy completely crippled.
Comments?
@Patchwork_Chimera
Source below
archive.ph/kZRYU
archive.ph/n1JZo
If that is true, I see it as a full-on shock and awe campaign, designed to leave the Taiwanese military and Taiwanese economy completely crippled.
Comments?
@Patchwork_Chimera
Source below
archive.ph/kZRYU
archive.ph/n1JZo
I don't really take these anonymous sources that seriously. Who knows who they are hearing these things from. Certain people are convinced China will invade by 2025. Looking at China's various endeavors, I don't see any logical reason for them to fast track things.
As for NTC/ETC, it looks like Lianyungang is the northernmost ETC brigade. That is pretty close to Sasebo. However, it is close 2000 km to Misawa. I think ETC can probably be used to attack Okinawa, Sasebo. It can be used to attack as far as air and naval bases around Tokyo if they knock out most of the air defense with ballistic missiles. Shanghai is about 1700 km from Tokyo. Only Anshan and Yanji are notably closer to Tokyo and Misawa. The J-16 brigade in qiqihar can probably be used to attack Misawa. So, I think what they need is a bomber division in NTC.
You don't need NTC to contribute much to Taiwan. You need it to attack Japanese air bases. I would imagine CTC bombers will be utilized a lot too. I don't know how much NTC has trained with other TC to host their H-6Ks.
As for NTC/ETC, it looks like Lianyungang is the northernmost ETC brigade. That is pretty close to Sasebo. However, it is close 2000 km to Misawa. I think ETC can probably be used to attack Okinawa, Sasebo. It can be used to attack as far as air and naval bases around Tokyo if they knock out most of the air defense with ballistic missiles. Shanghai is about 1700 km from Tokyo. Only Anshan and Yanji are notably closer to Tokyo and Misawa. The J-16 brigade in qiqihar can probably be used to attack Misawa. So, I think what they need is a bomber division in NTC.
You don't need NTC to contribute much to Taiwan. You need it to attack Japanese air bases. I would imagine CTC bombers will be utilized a lot too. I don't know how much NTC has trained with other TC to host their H-6Ks.
If it was just one anonymous source, I would have agree. But it's multiple sources and this story has been published and then repeated. And the UK governments must have some sort of analysis as to how they think China will conduct a Taiwan war. Presumably this is reflective of what the US thinks, given the close diplomatic, military and intelligence relationship.
A 2 day operation is plausible from the point of view that China doesn't want to conduct a surprise first strike against the US as the first step, and therefore be in a full-scale war with the US from Day 1.
So I think it is useful to consider what such a 2 day campaign looks like. The UK and US governments certainly won't want to discuss this publicly, so if this happens, we may see ill-considered, populist and plainly stupid decision-making like with Ukraine.
Putin didn't deploy 100,000 troops on Ukraine's border for months just for laughs. Yet Zelensky kept baiting Russia by publicly insisting that Ukraine would join NATO which is a hostile military alliance aimed at Russia. A sensible and competent President Zelensky would have taken the Russian threat seriously, and kept quietly publicly but worked behind the scenes to resolve this. Instead we saw public grandstanding and self-righteousness aimed at the crowd.
Then when the Russian invasion happened, predictions of an imminent Ukrainian collapse were leaked by the Pentagon, and it did take some days for a Western response.
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So broadly speaking, in 2 days, we could say the vast majority of the Taiwanese Air Force and Navy would be destroyed. That the Chinese military can blockade Taiwan and also attack any land target it wishes to. There will no electricity from Day 1 and it will take at least a year to build replacement electricity plants. Much of the dual use civilian infrastructure such as fuel and communications will be degraded at a minimum.
Even if the US military intervenes after Day 2, the Chinese military still retains the ability to keep Taiwan blockaded and therefore ensure the collapse of Taiwanese society within 6 weeks.
So suppose China conducts a 2 day operation with the effects on Taiwan above. Then China declares success and a unilateral ceasefire, subject to Taiwan accepting a Hong Kong settlement but with Taiwan being allowed to maintain its own Army.
This all happens before the US/Japan decide to intervene.
Is it worth the US going to war with China or continuing a war in such a scenario? Would Taiwan confine to resist, knowing it was only a matter of time before Taiwan disintegrates?
Like I mentioned before, we may have the Taiwanese President addressing the UN and telling the world that it isn't in Taiwan's interest to see the US and China at war.
If China and the US are at peace, the world might get away with a short global recession.
But if China and the US are at war, it means a global economic decline comparable to the Great Depression. In terms of the impact to the US and also China, a 25%-35% GDP decline has been mentioned. Japan and Taiwan would be hit even harder.
Japan will also have to grapple with whether it is worth going to war against China. If the US doesn't have access to Japanese bases, there's no way for the US military to effectively reach Taiwan.
But having said all this, I do not think this is China's preferred scenario. There is so much risk, destruction and death in any war. The status quo is fine, particularly since China is still increasing its power in all dimensions.
There are still 400 million poorly paid peasants for example, which can potentially fuel relatively fast growth for another 2 decades. If Beijing is able to make them middle-class and rich, that alone would be the equivalent of an entire USA in terms of people and economic heft.
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Practically speaking, aircraft from ETC airbases could only cover the Western half of Japan, at most.
Yes, I would expect Yanji airbase in NTC to be expanded and new airbases in this area to host heavyweight fighter bomber aircraft.
In the coming decade, I expect more H-6 and H-20 to be assigned for missions against Japan, due to the distance involved.
Of course, that assumes Cuba can use North Korean airspace.
The problem is it doesn't make any sense. If you invade, you need at least a month to prepare an invasion force. Even in the scenario we discussed, the invasion force would be smaller than one that's necessary to conduct a non-exhausted defensive force. Doing a major buildup 6 weeks before a planned invasion would be a huge give away that an invasion is coming.
well, the nearest NTC bases are only a couple of hundred km closer to Tokyo than the nearest ETC bases. So, ETC would be part of any attack south of Misawa. Even before H20 presence, the growing naval presence (carrier + 055s) will carry out large portion of land attack also. But yes, they will be well served in building up bases near Korean border and Shandong with J16s. Replace some of the JH7A regiments with j-16s and H-6K/J bases.
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