Tag
@ansy1968, given this is kind of a reply to the SCS thread.
If there is one thing the Ukraine conflict taught us, it would be that a large portion of American foreign policy makers regard China as its pre-eminent threat, regardless of the fact that China has not invaded anyone for 40 years or that China is far more interested in winning through trade + de-industrializing Western powers vs real war. The other thing we've seen is the desperation of Japan. Under Abe, Japan has aligned itself 100% of its foreign policy to following America. Japan of 15 years ago would probably not have followed America step by step in all the sanctioning of Russia. But now given its fading power status and worry about Chinese hegemony in East Asia, it is scared to death of that outcome. It is willing to follow America 100% despite having very little cultural link to America and getting completely de-industrialized by the vulture capitalism of Wall Street/shadow banking system following Plaza Accord. Japan of today has a very old population with very below replacement level birth rate, lack of natural resources and domestic industry is increasingly uncompetitive. Its economy by nominal GDP is less than what it was in 1995 and its national debt is 250%of GDP. The entire situation is only getting worse as the working age population vs welfare population ratio is continually shrinking. As such, Japan is holding onto its alliance with America with dear life while dreading the growing behemoth next door.
So any China/Taiwan situation will likely trigger the involvement of US/Japan if the conflict is not resolved in 30 days. This is assuming that America does not take the dramatic action of keeping 4 carriers that are either operating around westpac or able to surged to combat status (in 60 days) at all times.
So, what is the biggest threat facing China? I think there is the nuclear issue and also the submarine issue. Those are quite related. Shilao podcast did a length segment on the troubles facing China in the submarine area recently. If you are sitting somewhere in the PLAN command and planning out war games, the part that will give you the most trouble is how to find submarines. The threats are the USN Virginia class and the JMSDF diesel subs like Soryu/Taigei class. They present different problems. With the latter, if it disappears from its port, you now it can probably only go so far for 2 days before it needs to surface or rely on AIP to move at really slow speed (like 3/4 knots). Assuming Chinese MPAs are competent and able to tell when submarines surface, diesel submarines can only go so far traveling at 8 knots for 2 days. Diesel submarines that go any faster than that are probably going to be noisy and easily detectable. As such, PLAN will most likely be concerned about Japanese subs from Kyushu to Taiwan. While that is a large area, individual subs probably can be tracked if China has air/surface combatant superiority in the area. For the sake argument, I would assume that China has advantages in both through Air Force and ASBM/ballistic missiles against Japanese ships and military bases. Assuming that China has full complement of Y8/9 ASW aircraft, Z20F, diesel submarines, surface combatant, underwater gliders and underwater sonar network, it would give them a good chance of finding moving Japanese subs before they get within striking distance of Chinese capital ships. At worst, PLAN might be willing to sacrifice some of its less advanced diesel subs and smaller surface combatant in the process of finding and destroying Japanese subs. So while dangerous, I would say this is a manageable task if they had air/surface superiority.
Which then brings us to the much larger problem of the USN subs. Ia Virginia class disappears from Guam and moves around, PLAN might have no idea where it is until it surfaces somewhere 6 months later. That's the strategic disadvantage China faces from having really noisy nuclear subs. While the Chinese SSNs may have modern combat system and sonar systems, they are simply too noisy to be chasing around Virginia class, because they'd be dead in the water. As such, Chinese SSNs have to remain relatively close to air/surface protection and be used as additional ASW platform in finding USN subs. The trouble with that is just how large Sea/Ocean is. There is only so large of an area that each helicopter, ASW aircraft and surface ship can search for. Without getting cued up, it's really hard to actually track a quiet sub. 054A/056s are too slow and noisy due to their diesel engines. Also once you lower your TAS/VDS, you can't go that fast when you are sweeping an area for submarines. As more Z20Fs and Y-9 join service, that will increase the area that PLAN can actively search for USN subs while also protecting surface combatants and SSBNs (very important). Assuming that the most recent generation of SLBM by later part of this decade can reach continental USA from SCS, it would represent true naval based nuclear deterrence. I haven't followed the rumor mills enough to know the answer to this, but would assume this is something they should have by then. With 6 094s, they can probably get 2 out on patrol at all times. It's critical that PLAN can prevent Virginia class from attacking them. If you look at the map, SCS is actually a very large area. The island expansions allow them to fly land based aircraft from more places and install underwater network further out. With more ships, more helicopters, more gliders and larger underwater network, they can be confident about the range of area that 094s can operate from, making them a real deterrent. Keep in mind that while the earlier 056s were transferred to the coast guards, the ASW ones are still operational. They also, really ramped up production of 054A and the new 052D designed for Z20s. Even though they are not the most advanced platforms, PLAN knows that it needs more of these platforms to fight, take losses and find nuclear subs, even if just as a landing pad. With Cambodia support, they could also fly also operate aircraft out of their airport occasionally and expand on the covered area.
I will continue next part tomorrow.
