Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Bellum_Romanum · May 20, 2022

ougoah said:
I am honestly not too sure what to make of China's attitude on Zero Covid Policy but I can say that it is abundantly clear that there are some instances of what can only be considered as foolishly inflexible approach - rounding up pets when there are alternative ways for unique situations, administrative errors resulting in people who don't have covid being forced into quarantine, close to zero effort to understand and make exceptions for exceptional cases be it people with conditions that require xyz... the list goes on.

Now this is undestandable in some ways because it is very difficult to pull this amount of organisation off and no other has been able to even try it. But the depth of planning is revealed to be unwavering textbook method. For a month of extreme lockdowns they had plenty of time to learn and adapt and find ways for alternative implementation methods re issues mentioned above. Accommodating exceptional situations rather than a one size fits all approach.

It is also understandable to have a zero covid policy. What's not is still doing certain things they know isn't effective just because a local leader may need to show they are doing xyz and following the book.

It is from these general observations that I suspect China's military methods could be similarly inflexible in certain ways. Urban fighting has been deadly for all formal militaries who attempt it.

It would be wise to avoid such a thing for any potential Taiwan scenario that involves this. For decency if nothing else. No military has done well in urban war against well armed insurgents taking up defensive positions. Not until armed robots can do the hard work. I get that China has next level recon, comms, and all the gadgets but it also has little to no experience in this. I fear that it would approach it with a similar refusal to constantly be learning, changing, adapting and prefer to carry on by the book. No accommodation for smarter ways to deal with a particular set of urban war problems even when solutions present themselves, all because the military commander needs to show he is doing it by the book or because adapting takes too much effort and throwing equipment and bodies onto a problem is easier for them.

Caveat, all my speculation by no means how it is and how it would be.

ougoah said:
I am honestly not too sure what to make of China's attitude on Zero Covid Policy but I can say that it is abundantly clear that there are some instances of what can only be considered as foolishly inflexible approach - rounding up pets when there are alternative ways for unique situations, administrative errors resulting in people who don't have covid being forced into quarantine, close to zero effort to understand and make exceptions for exceptional cases be it people with conditions that require xyz... the list goes on.

I hear you and those examples you cited were just plain dumb and stupid, not to mention embarrassing. But those were exceptions not the norm in all of China as am sure members like @KYli can attest better. Shenzhen fared and handled their covid-19 situation better and differently than what the idiots in Shanghai authorities did. While the overall goal was the same all across China the authorities on each of the provinces didn't exactly execute the strategic directive in one uniform fashion. So this is where I vigorously disagree with this premise but then again you could still be right with respect to your assessment on how the PLA would or could perform in a military operation and if that were to happen then it'll be a well-deserved loss for the PLA no ifs and buts.

But I have a difficult time subscribing to your speculation because I have yet to read anything that describes tactical inflexibility exhibited by the PLA throughout it's existence. Their history was riddled or required flexibility, adaptability when their forces were severely inadequate in the face of a much better equipped, better trained, and supplied KMT forces and we know the outcome of that civil war. The 1962 Sino-Indo war was not fought in a doctrinal way as well, at least based on what I read about that conflict.

I think our views and concerns on the PLA and their supposed inflexibility are still guided by our western ways of thinking and the biases that crept onto our psyche wether we like to admit it or not.

I mean, if we look at the path of success from economics, science, engineering etc. If the Chinese were simply operating by dictum and doctrinaire they wouldn't have managed to achieve the level of success it has accomplished. They would be allergic to data, math, scientific investigation and inquiry but would just rather rely on Communist Party recommendations but we know that's not the case because we see the results on the ground with our set of eyes.

supersnoop · May 20, 2022

Bellum_Romanum said:
Was Mr.Sing describing his own service or what? The dude forgets that IA tanks are mostly consist or made up of Russian made tanks. Their super duper Verdic power tank Arjun was so invincible that they only procured less than half of what originally planned. Their rifles, soon to be light tank, their super duper air craft carriers, their submarines, their Bhrahmos missiles etc..Indians are illiterate idiots tbh and yet the idiots in the west somehow loses their mental faculty by pushing such idiotic drivel as genuine military analysis.

That was one of the worst analyses I've read, really puts the "anal" into it...

pmc · May 20, 2022

ougoah said:
US (and Israel I guess) is the best at urban land war. It is the more experienced compared to even Russia with their involvement in Afghanistan and Chechnya. No one else's experience amounts to that much in comparison... not Turkey's, not Azeri or Armenian, not Iran, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Pakistan or India. Listing those who have gone to some level of conflict in more recent decades.

Russia completely took down city of Mariupol of 450K People from essentially Germanic people and you think Russia has less experience in urban warfare?. . think harder to know what i am referring too start with Ottomans.
i am not even going deep bunkers that is like entire city of steel under ground or forests for trench warfare.
Air-condition vehicles and aircraft can easily provide that long persistence that is not available to less technology people in hot desert environment. there is simply no comparison between European theatre and Middleast.
for European theatre Russian trained with different equipment that provide much more range, load, refuelling to other platforms, hence park much further from battlefield.

KYli · May 20, 2022

Bellum_Romanum said:
I hear you and those examples you cited were just plain dumb and stupid, not to mention embarrassing. But those were exceptions not the norm in all of China as am sure members like @KYli can attest better. Shenzhen fared and handled their covid-19 situation better and differently than what the idiots in Shanghai authorities did. While the overall goal was the same all across China the authorities on each of the provinces didn't exactly execute the strategic directive in one uniform fashion. So this is where I vigorously disagree with this premise but then again you could still be right with respect to your assessment on how the PLA would or could perform in a military operation and if that were to happen then it'll be a well-deserved loss for the PLA no ifs and buts.

But I have a difficult time subscribing to your speculation because I have yet to read anything that describes tactical inflexibility exhibited by the PLA throughout it's existence. Their history was riddled or required flexibility, adaptability when their forces were severely inadequate in the face of a much better equipped, better trained, and supplied KMT forces and we know the outcome of that civil war. The 1962 Sino-Indo war was not fought in a doctrinal way as well, at least based on what I read about that conflict.

I think our views and concerns on the PLA and their supposed inflexibility are still guided by our western ways of thinking and the biases that crept onto our psyche wether we like to admit it or not.

I mean, if we look at the path of success from economics, science, engineering etc. If the Chinese were simply operating by dictum and doctrinaire they wouldn't have managed to achieve the level of success it has accomplished. They would be allergic to data, math, scientific investigation and inquiry but would just rather rely on Communist Party recommendations but we know that's not the case because we see the results on the ground with our set of eyes.

For the first tier cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai, they have the luxury to provide quarantine for pets. However, for most other 3 to 4 tier cities or rural areas, quarantine for pets is just impossible. They don't have the finance, the man power or the facilities to do so. It is just a choice of putting humans first or putting pets first. For the CPC, the choice is simple and obvious.

Westerners have the tendency to talk about exceptions and special cases. However, if you are given exceptions, then loopholes would be everywhere. Why the West failed so badly in fighting covid, they keep talking about human rights, privileges, and individual freedom so people ending up not obeying any rules or laws. If someone is given exceptions, then others would demand the same. If someone is given special privileges, then others would demand even more. Remember how Hong Kong covid outbreak happened in the fifth wave, that is because of exceptions are given to certain people and these certain people ended up abusing such privileges that in the end causing an outbreak that killed almost ten thousands people.

solarz · May 20, 2022

ougoah said:
I am honestly not too sure what to make of China's attitude on Zero Covid Policy but I can say that it is abundantly clear that there are some instances of what can only be considered as foolishly inflexible approach - rounding up pets when there are alternative ways for unique situations, administrative errors resulting in people who don't have covid being forced into quarantine, close to zero effort to understand and make exceptions for exceptional cases be it people with conditions that require xyz... the list goes on.

Actually what you brought up as an example is exactly the kind of bottom-up decision making that you were saying provides flexibility in military context.

There's no central government order to round up pets. It's all decisions at the local level, sometimes at the discretion of the individual enforcement unit. This is why you get seemingly embarrassing incidents like in your example, because the people doing the enforcement just don't give a crap about the PR aspect of it.

BoraTas · May 20, 2022

Bellum_Romanum said:
Was Mr.Sing describing his own service or what? The dude forgets that IA tanks are mostly consist or made up of Russian made tanks. Their super duper Verdic power tank Arjun was so invincible that they only procured less than half of what originally planned. Their rifles, soon to be light tank, their super duper air craft carriers, their submarines, their Bhrahmos missiles etc..Indians are illiterate idiots tbh and yet the idiots in the west somehow loses their mental faculty by pushing such idiotic drivel as genuine military analysis.

The common narrative in Western MSM spaces is China getting shocked by the Western response and the low success of Russia. They miss a lot of things

1- Russia, considering all the factors I listed, is not that unsuccessful. Ukraine likely lost more soldiers than Russia and has been losing territory. And if you disregard the human tragedy part of it, Russia's losses are not at a level that is significant at the national level. For example, the US lost 50x more to COVID-19. So we have Ukraine losing territory without being able to deal significant damage to Russia. Ukraine would be having it much worse without the NATO support they have and the weird decisions of the Russian civilian leadership.

2- As we are discussing here for pages, even if there were fundamental problems with the Russian military it is unlikely that they apply to the PLA. These two militaries were only similar at equipment level and even that was diverging in the last 15 years. And it is fairly easy to conclude that PLA has a lot more modernized and new equipment than Russia thanks to its 4x larger budget. Especially some European analysts look at the PLA brigades in irrelevant places to conclude that the PLA uses outdated equipment. They willingly ignore the modernized part is still multiple times their own country's entire military.

3- I don't think China is shocked by the Western sanctions. We have Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela and Cuba after all. China itself was always a partially or completely sanctioned country. Though, I believe the sanctions on the Russian central bank and oligarchs surprised China a bit. Because these sanctions severely erode the West's reliability as a place to stash money. Hua Chunying recently tweeted that "Pandora's box has opened" about this. The media missed that but I think a spokesperson saying that is quite significant. And it is not being talked about, but it was actually getting quite embarrassing for the West lately. They can not distance themselves away from Russian natural resources. The EU still buys 1€ billion worth of Russian energy every single day and they are paying it at a premium which is caused by their own sanctions.

FairAndUnbiased · May 20, 2022

BoraTas said:
The common narrative in Western MSM spaces is China getting shocked by the Western response and the low success of Russia. They miss a lot of things

1- Russia, considering all the factors I listed, is not that unsuccessful. Ukraine likely lost more soldiers than Russia and has been losing territory. And if you disregard the human tragedy part of it, Russia's losses are not at a level that is significant at the national level. For example, the US lost 50x more to COVID-19. So we have Ukraine losing territory without being able to deal significant damage to Russia. Ukraine would be having it much worse without the NATO support they have and the weird decisions of the Russian civilian leadership.

2- As we are discussing here for pages, even if there were fundamental problems with the Russian military it is unlikely that they apply to the PLA. These two militaries were only similar at equipment level and even that was diverging in the last 15 years. And it is fairly easy to conclude that PLA has a lot more modernized and new equipment than Russia thanks to its 4x larger budget. Especially some European analysts look at the PLA brigades in irrelevant places to conclude that the PLA uses outdated equipment. They willingly ignore the modernized part is still multiple times their own country's entire military.

3- I don't think China is shocked by the Western sanctions. We have Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela and Cuba after all. China itself was always a partially or completely sanctioned country. Though, I believe the sanctions on the Russian central bank and oligarchs surprised China a bit. Because these sanctions severely erode the West's reliability as a place to stash money. Hua Chunying recently tweeted that "Pandora's box has opened" about this. The media missed that but I think a spokesperson saying that is quite significant. And it is not being talked about, but it was actually getting quite embarrassing for the West lately. They can not distance themselves away from Russian natural resources. The EU still buys 1€ billion worth of Russian energy every single day and they are paying it at a premium which is caused by their own sanctions.

China was not shocked by the severity of the sanctions, China was shocked by the stupidity.

Basically, the whole point of the western financial system is not to make money the regular way i.e. through buying and selling goods and services. They might tell you that's capitalism but that's not the actual highest stage of capitalism, which is imperialism.

The true way that imperialism makes money is through getting things for free AKA not actually having to sell anything to make money. There are 3 ways to do this:

1. Telling oligarchs of other countries outside US/EU - even developed countries like South Korea and Japan - to put their money in US/EU, where it will get returns in USD/EURO, so money flows into US/EU. It will also be out of reach of domestic law enforcement.

2. Having control of regulatory agencies and standards due to first mover advantage and

3. Control of oil so that any oil importing country must use USD, the petrodollar system.

Sanctions on Russia break 1,2,3.

1. Oligarchs can no longer trust that their money will actually be accessible, so there's no point. There's no difference between getting your money seized by the US for political reasons and getting your money seized by a political opponent for political reasons, your money is gone, with the exception that you might always come back to power domestically and get your money back but even Russia can't get money back from the US.

2. Obeying their regulatory standards just means you're at their mercy. How come their insurance companies refusing to insure Russian ships means Russian ships can't sail? How come Russians can't insure their own ships? What does insurance even mean if they can just cancel policies at the last minute? This, plus the Boeing 737 MAX shit, just erodes trust in their regulators and standards.

3. Sanctioning world's 2nd largest oil producer and top gas producer means petrodollar is crippled. There's now a huge pool of oil and gas that's for sale in not USD, not EURO currencies - Russian oil and Iranian oil. Indeed, they're so scared of Russia totally breaking off from USD, they're offering huge bonuses on Russian oil such that Russian oil revenue rises as Russian oil volume declines.

A potato · May 21, 2022

Bellum_Romanum said:
The drones of the PLA should be ahead from the Russian ones in terms of quantity, variety, types, and quality. What has been gained from the Civilian experience are easily transferred to the military side especially in China.

And while the PLA does lack modern combat experience but so does Taiwan, so does U.S. in the western Pacific theater.

Well does Xinjiang counter terrisom count?

BoraTas · May 21, 2022

FairAndUnbiased said:
China was not shocked by the severity of the sanctions, China was shocked by the stupidity.

Basically, the whole point of the western financial system is not to make money the regular way i.e. through buying and selling goods and services. They might tell you that's capitalism but that's not the actual highest stage of capitalism, which is imperialism.

The true way that imperialism makes money is through getting things for free AKA not actually having to sell anything to make money. There are 3 ways to do this:

1. Telling oligarchs of other countries outside US/EU - even developed countries like South Korea and Japan - to put their money in US/EU, where it will get returns in USD/EURO, so money flows into US/EU. It will also be out of reach of domestic law enforcement.

2. Having control of regulatory agencies and standards due to first mover advantage and

3. Control of oil so that any oil importing country must use USD, the petrodollar system.

Sanctions on Russia break 1,2,3.

1. Oligarchs can no longer trust that their money will actually be accessible, so there's no point. There's no difference between getting your money seized by the US for political reasons and getting your money seized by a political opponent for political reasons, your money is gone, with the exception that you might always come back to power domestically and get your money back but even Russia can't get money back from the US.

2. Obeying their regulatory standards just means you're at their mercy. How come their insurance companies refusing to insure Russian ships means Russian ships can't sail? How come Russians can't insure their own ships? What does insurance even mean if they can just cancel policies at the last minute? This, plus the Boeing 737 MAX shit, just erodes trust in their regulators and standards.

3. Sanctioning world's 2nd largest oil producer and top gas producer means petrodollar is crippled. There's now a huge pool of oil and gas that's for sale in not USD, not EURO currencies - Russian oil and Iranian oil. Indeed, they're so scared of Russia totally breaking off from USD, they're offering huge bonuses on Russian oil such that Russian oil revenue rises as Russian oil volume declines.

I saw this today. It is very in line with your comment. This year's Wimbledon tennis tournament will be ignored in global rankings. The West is opening its standards to questioning by arbitrarily changing them and banning people from participating in their system.

This is quite off-topic but I think it illustrates the effect Russian sanctions can have on Western currencies and financial assets very well.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"Wimbledon has been stripped of its world ranking points for banning Russian and Belarusian players.

World tennis authorities said it undermined the fundamental principle of players qualifying on merit.

The ATP, in charge of the men's game, said it had acted with "great regret and reluctance" but that "discrimination by individual tournaments is simply not viable".

Women's tennis governing body the WTA also said it was stripping the event of its points."

AndrewS · May 21, 2022

FairAndUnbiased said:
China was not shocked by the severity of the sanctions, China was shocked by the stupidity.

Yes.

The Chinese assessment was and is that EU unity on sanctions against Russia wouldn't last.

GT Voice: By joining in US’ reckless sanctions, EU may have shot itself in the foot
globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1257118.shtml

More sanctions against Russia would further harm Europe, ‘keep crisis from ending’
globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1257581.shtml

---

And now we see Germany and Italy paying for gas in Rubles

Poland “disappointed” by EU willingness to pay for Russian gas in roubles
notesfrompoland.com/2022/05/16/poland-disappointed-by-eu-willingness-to-pay-for-russian-gas-in-roubles/

---

It reminds me of the US-China trade war which Trump said would be "easy" to win. And now the US understands the tariffs aren't working and is thinking to end the tariffs to fight surging inflation. Article below

Biden administration considers lifting China tariffs to cut inflation
cbsaustin.com/news/nation-world/biden-administration-considers-lifting-china-tariffs-to-cut-inflation-scott-lincicome-cato-institute-janet-yellen-katherine-tai-white-house-labor-unions-consumer-price-index

Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier

supersnoop

Major

pmc

Major

KYli

Brigadier

solarz

Brigadier

BoraTas

Captain

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier

A potato

Junior Member

BoraTas

Captain

AndrewS

Brigadier