Korea 2013... War Game or political game changer?

TOKYO—Secretary of State John Kerry said he would be willing to open a direct U.S. diplomatic channel to North Korea's leadership in a bid to reduce tensions in Northeast Asia, if Pyongyang signaled it would move to begin dismantling its nuclear-weapons arsenal.

The U.S. proposal marked a considerable softening by the Obama administration of its rhetoric toward North Korea after a massive display of U.S. military force on the Korean peninsula—including the deployment of B-2 bombers, F-22 stealth fighters and advanced missile-defense systems.

But by requiring a North Korean move in the direction of disarmament, the offer appeared to stand a limited chance of succeeding. The North on Sunday rebuffed an earlier offer for talks from South Korea, calling that overture a "crafty trick."

..Mr. Kerry's offer to negotiate with Kim Jong Eun over the nuclear program, as well as sanctions on and aid to the country, came as the U.S., Japan and South Korea braced for the potential launch of a medium-range missile as soon as Monday to commemorate the birthday of Mr. Kim's late grandfather, North Korea's founder Kim Il Sung.

"We're prepared to reach out. But we need the appropriate moment, the appropriate circumstances," Mr. Kerry told reporters Sunday night in Tokyo, discussing the potential for direct diplomacy with Pyongyang. "There are standards we need to reach to get to negotiations."

Mr. Kerry also recommitted the Obama administration while in Japan to "rebalance" its national security focus toward Asia after a decade of waging wars in the Middle East and Islamic world.

"While some might be skeptical of America's commitment to this region, let me be clear: President Obama made a smart and strategic commitment to rebalance our interests and investments in Asia," Mr. Kerry said in a speech Monday at the Tokyo Institute of Technology. "My commitment to you is that as a Pacific nation that takes our Pacific partnership seriously, we will continue to build on our active and enduring presence."

The speech came at the end of a four-day tour through Asia by Mr. Kerry representing a U.S. push to defuse escalating tensions and tamp down the threats coming from North Korea.

An important element of the push is China, which Washington hopes will use its historically close relations with the North to establish a new diplomatic process with the younger Mr. Kim.

Mr. Kerry, on visits to Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo, quizzed Asian diplomats and defense officials at each stop on the strategy of Mr. Kim and the inner-workings of North Korea's government. U.S. officials also anxiously tracked whether the leader, estimated to be 29 or 30 years old, would make good on his threat to test a new medium-range missile, called the Musudan.

Mr. Kerry particularly turned to China for insights into Mr. Kim's behavior, according to senior U.S. officials traveling with Mr. Kerry. China's Communist Party and People's Liberation Army have cultivated the Kim family for decades and Chinese firms have played leading roles in aiding North Korea's development of missile systems and nuclear weapons, according to U.S. and United Nations officials.

The new Chinese government of President Xi Jinping seemed genuinely bewildered by Kim Jong Eun's activities, said U.S. officials who took part in Mr. Kerry's Saturday meetings in Beijing.

China's government, these officials said, had regular contacts with Mr. Kim's father, but have yet to develop a similar relationship with the son 16 months after he took power. A new generation of Chinese leaders lacks the same engagement that once allowed Beijing to help Pyongyang fight the 1950-53 Korean War. President Xi appeared to rebuke North Korea this month when he said no country should "selfishly" destabilize the region, though he didn't mention the North by name. "The relations at the top seem disconnected," said an aide to Mr. Kerry.

A lengthy U.S.-South Korean military exercise, which featured the U.S. military aircraft flights, raised concerns in China and Russia—and even inside the Pentagon—that the inexperienced Mr. Kim might miscalculate and respond with force.

Chinese officials publicly warned the U.S. on Saturday against provoking North Korea, following their meetings with Mr. Kerry in Beijing.

But any new diplomatic outreach by the Obama administration to Pyongyang comes with significant strategic and political risks for the White House and Mr. Kerry. In a new round of talks with North Korea, the administration could risk appearing to regional allies and others as though it is tilting toward China in Northeast Asia.

Mr. Kerry arrived in China Saturday seeking a strong and public reprimand of Pyongyang by Beijing's leadership—something he failed to achieve.

Mr. Kerry also suggested while in Beijing that the U.S. could pull back some of its recent deployments in North Asia if China was more assertive in trying to bring Pyongyang to heel. Central to these were new anti-ballistic-missile batteries set up in Guam and on Aegis cruisers that were dispatched to waters off North Korea.

South Korea and Japanese officials have said they were worried that Washington could be coerced by China into reducing the U.S. military footprint in Asia. And Republican lawmakers have pressured Mr. Kerry and the White House to not let Beijing slide on the North Korea issue.

"The most important and key element in all of this is China. China is the only country that can affect North Korean behavior; they can shut down in a short period their economy," Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.) said on CNN's "State of the Union."

After meetings in Beijing, Mr. Kerry and China's top foreign policy official, State Councilor Yang Jiechi, said they would work together to persuade Pyongyang to return to an international diplomatic process, called the six-party talks, which has sought unsuccessfully over the past decade to curtail North Korea's nuclear program.

Pyongyang formally withdrew from the negotiations in late 2009 and has conducted two nuclear-weapons tests since then. The talks have included China, the U.S., South Korea, Russia, Japan and North Korea.

"China is firmly committed to upholding peace and stability and advancing the denuclearization process on the Korean peninsula," Mr. Yang said on Saturday before a dinner with Mr. Kerry. "We maintain that the issue should be handled and resolved peacefully through dialogue and consultation."

President Barack Obama has been reluctant to engage diplomatically with North Korea after taking earlier steps toward agreements with Pyongyang on disarmament, only to see them fall through.

Last year, the U.S. announced an agreement to send food aid to the North in exchange for closer international monitoring of its nuclear program. But Mr. Kim ordered the launch of a long-range missile just days later, in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, causing Washington to scrap the deal.

On Sunday, North Korea rebuffed South Korea's offer last week for talks. Seoul is particularly seeking to revive a joint-industrial zone that North Korea shut down as tensions between the two countries spikes.

Seoul and Tokyo have been using Mr. Kerry's visit to wrest greater assurances from the U.S. that it will remain committed to their security in the face of an increasingly assertive China in their region. Japan, in particular, has been feuding with Beijing in recent months over a disputed island chain in the East China Sea, called Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu by Beijing.

Japan has been scrambling its own defensive arsenal, mobilizing destroyers and Patriot missiles to help shoot down any Korean missiles. U.S. officials have hastened to assure Japan and South Korea that the U.S. would defend them, and Mr. Kerry repeated that pledge Sunday.

"The U.S.-Japan alliance have never really been stronger than it is today," Mr. Kerry said at a news conference with his Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kishida. "The U.S. is committed to the defense of Japan."

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LesAdieux said:

nk has said its nukes are not negotiable. I think nk may launch a couple of missiles, and UN will launch a new strongly worded resolution in response.

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TerraN_EmpirE said:

Deflt
In the 1950s conflict the north was better armed then the South. The US was more convinced of a southern invasion north then a northern invasion south, the limited the arms given to the southern troops. Smallarms, Jeeps no armor no real fighting aircraft. The North by contrast had the best Russian forces would sell of world war 2 hand me downs . US forces were also a joke after the Treaty was signed no the deck me the mighty mo the US military repeated a move made after every US war to that point troops were either sent home or took up a very lax duty set in occupation the navy was either mothballed sunk or kept in low use. Tanks were sold or scrapped same for the air force. What forces were kept ready were pointed across a divided Germany at Russia. To be frank in the words of the American Army COS at the time General Omar Bradley "wrong war, wrong time, wrong place." first US troops to the fight were told the North Koreans would run scared at the sight of American troops. It took until the US and ROK troops were literally back to the sea to turn the tides and that came in the form sea lift the US and allied UN managed to repo landing ships and move new tanks and equipment in as well as recall troops from retirement. It was no easy feat. The whole thing was a complex mess from start to finish a even that should be studied deeper in terms of failure and achievements. Its a forgotten war because so little is actually talked about of it and what it did long term. It was the was that made the US a super power and world policeman. It set the concept of "limited war ". It set China as a regional player but also popped their dream of a quick invasion of Taiwan. It established the Veitnam stigma for US vets that to some degree is still apparent today. Its such a huge event yet brushed under the carpet.

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TerraN_EmpirE said:

Simply this the world was a different place in the first Korean war. The US was at the opening of the war not in a position to fight a war in the pacific. The South was kept weak to keep it from starting a war. The North had however no limit to stop it. The KOREAN war was not a insergent war it was a contentional war. The North being the better equiped side overwhelmed the South. Until they over extended their lines.
At that point the UN and US having had the time to regroup and rebuild a Army pushed the North back. All the way to China where though numbers the North and the Chinese pushed back. Returning the boarder to where they started. The war is however treated as a none event often overshadowed in pop culture by WWII and Veitnam.

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