The claims being made simply do not pass simple logic tests.
If America would not sell F22s to the likes of Israel, UK or Japan, all of whom have exclusively close relations with the US, why would China allow its most advanced tech to be exported to Pakistan, who is a long time American Allie also?
The 054 sale follows the same broad practice of the F7 sale, whereby Pakistan got a customised version of in service Chinese systems that are superior to what China fielded for its own forces.
However, the 054, just like the J7, was not the top Chinese platform of the day.
Indeed, China has never ever exported the very best kind of weapon that its own forces use for big ticket items unless and until a superior replacement was in final testing or actively deployed.
To suggest otherwise is to both go against well established historical trends and China’s own national interest.
No matter how close you are with a country, you cannot expect the other side to sacrifice its own national interest and security to do you a solid.
PL12s were made available for export because the PL15 was on the horizon for the PLAAF. The JF17 programme itself would have been unnecessary had the PLAAF made the J10 available to Pakistan in the first place.
With the J20 being so brand new, there is just no way China would release it for export even to Pakistan.
The only exceptions would be in times of extremes, for example where Pakistan is fighting a war of national survival, and where its loss in such a war would have a profoundly harmful impact on Chinese national interest and security, which would trump the potential risks of leaks of sensitive data on current Chinese weapon systems.
There have also been precedents where China had sent assets from its own frontline forces to aid Pakistan. And China could use announced ‘arms sales’ as both a signalling tool to show support and try to dissuade a 3rd party from launching such a war; and/or provide the pretext for military support or even direct, covert action to try and turn the tide in such a war.
So, if for example, tensions massively escalate despite Pakistani efforts to defuse the situation, and open war looks imminent, Beijing might well announce J10 and J20 sales to the PAF.
Emergency deliveries of J10s could be done by sending in repainted PLAAF frontline jets with minimal or no changes.
The would serve the dual purpose of showing public support, and establishing the presence of the type within PAF inventories.
That means that if it came to it, PLAAF frontline units could deploy to Pakistan and engage directly in combat operations while masquerading as PAF forces, similar to what the Soviets did during Korea.
That allows China to help turn the tide while also avoiding having to declare war itself.
Any J20 sale to Pakistan within the next few decades could only happen under such scenarios. But the J20s would be Pakistani only in name, they will be flown by Chinese pilots; would operate from Chinese bases, and would only operate over Pakistani airspace in a defensive manner to safeguard both pilots and planes from falling into enemy hands in case of accidents or combat losses.
