If you want to play "voice of reason", you would be better served quoting the individual I responded to and not me.
He's certainly more reasonable here.
Main reason Japan doesn't cross nuclear threshold is (1)internal opposition, (2)US, (3)international image of Japan.
China is somewhere in top 10, and not as a reason to not proliferate, but as a reason to actually do it. Shall 1 and 2 fall - it'll happen.
Right now, btw, Japan is pushing for US nukes on their soil, in nuclear sharing like arrangement. And no, no nuclear launches from China happened.
We don't live in a world of irresponsibility. Other than Israel, of course, it absolutely does.
Right.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Well-put. And also, nukes in Japan don't make any change to the balance of power. China's a tank for its size for the naturally damage-resistant standards it holds its infrastructure to in the cities. Japan's got a healthbar with like 2 HP in it. North Korea will launch at the US before Japan dares launch at China.
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it is. B/c again, after Fukushima(2011), civilian probing of released cloud exposed far exceeding concentrations of thorium, far beyond Japanese non-proliferation obligations.
Concentration of throrium means reactor was used to synthesize uranium-233. It's a weapons grade material(it produces worse bombs, and it makes sense mostly if you can't have normal enrichment, but they work). Simple as that.
Of course, maybe it was the only reactor of the exact same type in Japan used for this exact activity, and it's all gone. Ponies shit rainbow, too.
What's the source for this claim that thorium was found in "civilian probing of released cloud"?
FYI, U233 is a very poor choice for a nuclear weapon. There's always contamination with U232 which has a hard gamma ray emitter in its decay chain (Thallium 208). Weapons grade Pu is defined as >93% Pu239, that's contamination measured in the parts per hundred. Contamination in the parts per million of U232 is sufficient to make a bomb both unworkable and the activity around it highly detectable.
When people talk about Japanese proliferation, they mean Japan's stockpile of reprocessed reactor grade Pu. It's not something a nuclear weapons state like the P5 or even a serious illicit weapons program like the DPRK's would be interested in, but it's workable enough for a crude nuclear weapon. It would be less reliable because of fizzling (premature criticality because of a high neutron background from spontaneous fission) and the heat from Pu240 decay would need to be dealt with.
Your argument that China wouldn't do anything if Japan moved toward a nuclear weapon because Japan's already doing so falls flat on its face. Your "thorium cloud" claim is hearsay, U233 is useless as a weapons material, and even if China wouldn't react with a prompt nuclear strike or threat of nuclear use, it would make very vocal and visible diplomatic moves if it had intelligence that this was happening.
Old story. Run through automatic translation.
Sucks to be WW2 loser, unable to build their own enrichment cascades and work with better stuff. Still, such bombs (i.e. u-233) can work and we're tested in mid-1950s.
Saying to a flash that it can't exist will be humorous, but futile.
That's long suspected. My link is something that shouldn't have been there, period.
Realistically, it's quite probably both, and the only true cap on that activity is Americans.
You can be puppet state held up by the JAV, host, hostess, and pachinko industries and borderline nuclear power at the same time. There is no magic barrier.
Just as you could be a basically bankrupt economy stuck in large continental war, while having world level navy crushing premier navies in a way that wasn't even imaginable by them from their experience in european war.