J-XY/J-35 carrier-borne fighter thread

[Blitzo]

I am quoting said phrase from the message #1723 by getready and message #1724 by zavve, whereby both of them are referring the message #1718 by Mirabo.

I am a novice here, and my knowledge in the military field is fairly shallow. You can say that I am an outsider that just got into the circle just a few days ago. Is it wrong to ask questions?

I'm sorry to say this, but "troll" doesn't seem to be the right word.

It is fair to ask questions. I will provide an answer.

We do not have any evidence that the PLAN are "frustrated" by J-15. They have committed to a CATOBAR and modernized variant of J-15 for production, and a production variant to the J-15D is likely going to emerge as well.
The J-15 as an airframe is large, capable, and able to carry relatively outsize payloads. The J-15 platform and the J-XY/35 platform can both exist simultaneously and complement each other in the PLAN carrier airwing of the near future.

Current in service STOBAR J-15s on CV-16 and CV-17 are limited in terms of their flexibility of taking off with MTOW under a variety of environmental conditions. STOBAR J-15s absolutely are capable of taking off with MTOW from the ski jump on CV-16 and CV-17, but not under the same wide range of circumstances as a CATOBAR J-15 could if on 003 with catapults.
Additionally, current in service STOBAR J-15s are not as competitive and modern as the rest of the PLA's in production non-5th-gen fighters, such as J-10Cs and J-16s, which field more modern avionics suites, sensors, and weapons. Current in service J-15s are likely at best, of the upgraded J-11B generation (we have no rumours at present that the current in service J-15s have received AESA upgrades like J-11BGs).

The relative limitations of current in service STOBAR J-15s in terms of MTOW launch flexibility, and their relative legacy avionics and weapon suites, will both be rectified by newly produced CATOBAR J-15s (tentatively dubbed "J-15B"), by adopting modifications to be CATOBAR compatible in terms of structure and physical features -- and by fielding more modern and competitive avionics suites, sensors and weapons suites, respectively.
The outcome is that the forthcoming "J-15B" (which should have already entered flight testing likely since mid last year at least), will be a competitive heavy 4.5th generation fighter with modern sensors, avionics and weapons, and through catapult compatibility, it is able to make full use of its payload capacity and range potential as endowed to it by its Flanker heritage.



.... in other words, the post by zavve in 1724, and by Mirabo in 1719 (about "PLA frustrations with J-15") are at best oversimplified, at worst, broadly incorrect.


We currently have no evidence or rumours to suggest that the PLAN will not adopt advanced J-15 variants into the future -- in fact, everything points to the PLAN seeking to continue with production of new and advanced J-15 variants as part of the airwing of their future carriers.

 

[Blitzo]

Additionally, I want to add that it is very very optimistic (pie in the sky level of optimism, frankly) to expect that 003 could be sufficiently combat capable in 2024 to require a full airwing of combat aircraft.

Let's say 003 gets launched mid 2022 as some are rumouring. You will still require at least a year of fitting out. Let's say one year, as an optimistic number for the sake of discussion. Then you reach mid 2023, and 003 is ready for sea trials by the shipyard.
Going by past practice for CV-16 and CV-17, that will require at least one year again which again is a very optimistic number (time taken for CV-16 between first sea trial and commissioning was 1 year 1 month, for CV-17 it was 1 year and 8 months).

Then, you reach mid 2024, and carrier 003 will enter service in the PLAN.

But entering service with the navy doesn't mean you immediately are able to field a full airwing of combat aircraft. A whole list of other workup and exercises have to be undertaken first, the same way for any other new class of ship:
- Naval trials for key subsystems on the ship
- Training for the initial first generation crew and "writing the book" for operating the ship and operating and maintaining the subsystems
- Pilot familiarization and integration with the carrier's relevant flight related subsystems (in this case, the newest and most important subsystem being the catapults)
- Gradual workup of sophistication and complexity of the ship's subsystems and airwing

That entire process likely will take at least two years, if we are being super optimistic. Most likely, it will take even longer than that.

Chances are, it will be 2027 until the carrier 003 is ready to take on a full airwing and be actually have a crew, flight deck personnel, and at least one cohort of pilots, able to actually be able to effectively conduct operations with a full combat airwing.



Now, what does this mean for J-XY/35? Well of course for the PLAN it would still be beneficial to continue as reasonably quickly as they can with the testing, development, and production of the aircraft, because doing as much of that earlier means that they can de-risk the J-XY/35 earlier and enable smoother integration of J-XY/35 with the 003.
And needless to say, the earlier they have more J-XY/35 in production, the earlier they can start training pilots and the earlier they can be able to integrate J-XY/35 into 003's airwing.
Additionally, J-XY/35 might have the capability to operate off the STOBAR carriers (CV-16, CV-17) as well, which would actually prove to be a very useful capability for them as well, even if J-XY/35 may not be able to reliably takeoff with full MTOW under all circumstances. After all, a 5th generation fighter like J-XY/35 taking off with only maximum "internal" payload (full internal fuel, full weapons bay capacity) is still significantly lower than its overall full MTOW (which includes maximum external payload as well). If J-XY/35 is able to take off reliably from CV-16/17 with full internal fuel and a full internal weapons load, that would still be a very capable aircraft.

.... But all the above does not mean that we should expect 003 to be ready to "receive" a full complement of combat aircraft or full airwing, by 2024 or 2025.
003 would only be operationally ready to receive a full complement of aircraft by 2027 likely at the earliest, and even then its combat aircraft complement almost certainly will not be fully J-XY/35, but rather a split between J-XY/35 and J-15B.

 

[zavve]

the post by zavve in 1724, and by Mirabo in 1719 (about "PLA frustrations with J-15") are at best oversimplified, at worst, broadly incorrect.

As I wrote in my post "The payload of the J15 and short take-off combination is limited". I was talking about the combination of the STOBAR and J-15 combination. From what I've understood the PLAN is is not frustrated but unsatisfied with the J-15 STOBAR combination.

 

[Blitzo]

As I wrote in my post "The payload of the J15 and short take-off combination is limited". I was talking about the combination of the STOBAR and J-15 combination. From what I've understood the PLAN is is not frustrated but unsatisfied with the J-15 STOBAR combination.

What I wrote in quotes i.e.: "PLA frustrations with J-15" was in relation to Mirabo's post in 1719, because in that particular post he discussed multiple things. I was only quoting that specific part of his post.

In your post 1724 which I referenced, I didn't quote a specific part of it because I was referring to the full thing.


And yes, your post in 1724 is indeed oversimplified at best, and incorrect at worst.
You wrote:
"The payload of the J15 and short take off combination is limited. It's also quite heavy which negatively effects its MTOW aboard the 001 and 002. Basically they can't carry enough fuel and weapons."

This is because:
- The negative effect to J-15's MTOW is not a reflection of it being "quite heavy" but rather a reflection of its nature as an aircraft that is launched by a ski jump rather than a catapult. As a heavyweight 4th generation fighter, it is powered by two engines in the Al-31/F100 class which is proportionate to its generation. A medium/lightweight fighter of the 4th generation would be powered either by two engines in the RD-33/F404 class or by a single engine of the Al-31/F100 class. That is to say, a medium/lightweight fighter of the 4th generation would be "lighter" than a heavyweight fighter like J-15, but it would also see a corresponding reduction in engine thrust, and would not be somehow better suited to STOBAR operations. J-15's weight and engine thrust category is entirely reasonable for its configuration and generation.
- The payload of J-15 is quite adequate from Liaoning or Shandong. Indications from past reliable sources have stated that while the carrier is moving at 20 knots, J-15s can launch from the waist position with 31.5 tons of TOW. At 28 knots, J-15s can launch from the waist 33 tons, and from the two forward positions at 28 tons. That is a lot of payload and internal fuel to work with. The biggest "issue" with J-15 and CV-16/17, is that J-15s cannot reliably launch from all positions with those sort of TOWs if the ship is moving at lower ship speeds (i.e.: less headwind). However, that does not mean J-15s "can't carry enough fuel and weapons". It's not that simple.


It is correct to say that the PLAN are likely unsatisfied with the J-15's flexibility in taking off with heavier payloads under a variety of launch positions and ship conditions on the STOBAR carriers.
However, that does not mean that J-15 are "basically they can't carry enough fuel and weapons" -- because they can.

 

[sheogorath]

Out of curiosity, will the J-15T's be able to operate from the CV-16 and CV-17's?. Or the reinforcements and modifications needed to operate from catapults might make them to heavy for STOBAR use with a payload?.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Out of curiosity, will the J-15T's be able to operate from the CV-16 and CV-17's?. Or the reinforcements and modifications needed to operate from catapults might make them to heavy for STOBAR use with a payload?.

You mean j-35 right?

And yes, they should be operable from STOBAR carriers (001 and 002), although modifications for CATOBAR will have a small impact (maybe it will be possible/easy to remove some bits, such as whatever the landing gear has for CATOBAR).

 

[Squidward]

Out of curiosity, will the J-15T's be able to operate from the CV-16 and CV-17's?. Or the reinforcements and modifications needed to operate from catapults might make them to heavy for STOBAR use with a payload?.

If you're able to hang several tons of missiles and bombs on the plane already, I doubt a bit of extra landing gear reinforcement weight would suddenly mean you can't take off anymore.

 

[sheogorath]

You mean j-35 right?

And yes, they should be operable from STOBAR carriers (001 and 002), although modifications for CATOBAR will have a small impact (maybe it will be possible/easy to remove some bits, such as whatever the landing gear has for CATOBAR).

I was talking about the J-15 in response to @Bltizo comment. I didn't realize this is the J-35 thread.

 

[Mirabo]

Mirabo in 1719 (about "PLA frustrations with J-15") are at best oversimplified, at worst, broadly incorrect.

I suppose it was too much of an oversimplification. The intention of my last post was to hypothesize as to why the J-35 is being developed and prototyped at such a rapid pace. To me, it feels like an accelerated schedule, but for all we know, the schedule may not have been accelerated at all, and it's just improved OPSEC on the manufacturer's part that makes this sort of news seem more surprising than it should be.

My logic is just in going back to basics - the fundamental reasons why it's not sustainable to continue operating the J-15 in the long term. For one, it's a huge plane and takes up a lot of deck and hangar space. Transitioning to a medium fighter as opposed to a heavy fighter would allow a carrier to embark more aircraft and therefore have a higher degree of flexibility in operations.

Another thing is, as summarized by tphuang on Shilao's podcast on April 3, the J-15 has a "complex folding mechanism requiring both wing and stabilizer to be folded, not desirable for deck operation." So there are issues handling the aircraft itself on deck as well.

And at the most basic level, the J-35 is designed from the ground up to be a 5th generation fighter with all the bells and whistles, advanced sensors, datalink, internal weapons bay, and according to rumours, supercruise. There really is no good reason to not put this aircraft into production as soon as is practically possible.

You're correct that there's no evidence to suggest the PLAN won't adopt advanced J-15 variants in the future. And I agree that the J-15 is a suitable aircraft for 001 and 002, there is no reason to believe the STOBARs will see much change to their airwing.

But in terms of planning five years, ten years ahead, there isn't a reason to put any J-15 variant on a CATOBAR at all. Why bother producing 10 to 20 J-15Ts just for 5 years of service as a stopgap solution, when 003 will most likely have a full complement of J-35s before 2030 anyway? Even the hugely anticipated steam catapult, fully developed and ready, was abandoned at the last minute in favour of EMALS, and the PLAN put up with an entire year's delay for it.

Is it that unbelievable for the PLAN to accept another brief setback in terms of schedule in exchange for a huge increase in combat capacity? If the PLAN was content to wait an extra year to get electromagnetic catapults over steam, why wouldn't they consider waiting a year or two for a full complement of J-35s on 003, as opposed to having to accept a mixed airwing of two different fighters running entirely different components and SOPs?

Given what we've seen from the PLAN in the last 5 years, this sort of aggressive decision-making should almost be expected. Just my two cents. The biggest lesson we should learn from the catapult competition debacle is that, just because a project is developed and ready doesn't mean it will be adopted. After seeing multiple J-35 prototypes at this point in time, it is my belief that the J-15T will face the same fate as the steam catapult.

 

[Temstar]

As we know 5th generation aircraft cost a lot to operate and maintain. That's why you don't see anyone thinking about dual seat trainer version of them (no J-20S is not a trainer).

Given that fact, there are lots of odds and end jobs that needs doing on a carrier that doesn't call for the unique capability of stealth fighters. Buddy refuel tankers for example, sometimes you need to send them airborne for one reason or another and it makes zero sense to do it with a F-35 or J-35 when that job could be better and cheaply handled by F/A-18 or J-15.

Despite US having an earlier lead on the PLAN with F-35C you don't see USS Carl Vinson deploying with all F-35C, in fact the majority of aircraft on her are still F/A-18.