J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31 thread

[Tomboy]

No, the rampup started a few years ago up to 70 around 2023 and then up again to around 100 last year. The J-16 production numbers are going up in the recent past not winding down as J-10s are inducted in ever decreasing numbers.

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The Flanker lines and components streams with J-16 and J-15 variants will be busy for years. You need range and carrying capacity whether PLAAF or PLAN. You cannot carry much fuel or ordance internally period.

I think the all-stealth force that people suddenly think is available "now that we have the J-35" is highly irrational.

First, Simpleflying is a terrible source

Second, why on earth do you need 1000+ J-16s? There is 400+ J-16s built and they are sufficient for what is expected.

Third, how'd you intend on repelling over one thousand F-35 that the US and it's allies in southeast asia will have by 2030? J-20 numbers would barely break 1000 by 2030 and peak production rate might be slowed in the later years as more lines are delicated to J-36. China needs overwhelming dominance in the SCS in a Taiwan scenario.

Building more J-16 makes no sense, long range strike role in the 2030s would be replaced by H-20 and J-36 while the 400+ J-16 PLAAF have right now is totally sufficient for low intensity conflicts and against low end targets.

 

[GiantPanda]

First, Simpleflying is a terrible source

Second, why on earth do you need 1000+ J-16s? There is 400+ J-16s built and they are sufficient for what is expected.

Third, how'd you intend on repelling over one thousand F-35 that the US and it's allies in southeast asia will have by 2030? J-20 numbers would barely break 1000 by 2030 and peak production rate might be slowed in the later years as more lines are delicated to J-36. China needs overwhelming dominance in the SCS in a Taiwan scenario.

Building more J-16 makes no sense, long range strike role in the 2030s would be replaced by H-20 and J-36 while the 400+ J-16 PLAAF have right now is totally sufficient for low intensity conflicts and against low end targets.

I used this particular Simpleflying article strictly as a handy compilation of things we had reported in our own threads. J-16 production has been ramping up not winding down.

I think you put too much weight into the A2A mission and even there you don't necessarily need stealth fighter vs stealth fighter.

The most powerful and longest ranged A2A weapon of the PLAAF like PL-17 are carried by the J-16. So would any other very long ranged PL-XX simply because those things can't carried in an internal weapons bay.

A 1000 J-20s within seven years back by 1000 capable and high capacity multi-role platform like J-16 is far more useful than 1000 J-20 air superiority fighter backed by another mainly air superiority stealth fighter like J-35.

 

[dingyibvs]

How about go wring a nearly-dry piece of towel first?



Because Shenyang AC is ALREADY committed to the production run of the J-35/A/AE family right now. This is in addition to all those concurrent projects and products (J-15T/D, J-16/D, J-35/A/AE & J-XDS) that Shenyang AC is dealing with.

They don't need newer additions which are non-native to them to worry about.



The problem with your analogy is that the Seagull is designed, engineered and produced by BYD. Whether there is a new factory to expand Seagull production or not, BYD is both responsible for the design and engineering of the Seagull, and being the owner + operator of that new factory.

Meanwhile, the J-20/A/S is the product of the Chengdu AC as its prime designer + contractor, whereas the J-35/A/AE is the product of the Shenyang AC as its prime designer + contractor. Both Chengdu AC and Shenyang AC are separate entities, despite being subsidiaries under the AVIC umbrella.

The correct analogy for your suggestion would be Geely asking BYD to build Xingyuan for them because they have reached capacity celling with their Xingyuan production, all while BYD already have Seagulls, Dolphins and many other models in mass production, plus newer BYD models in development.

No, the numbers issue can be solved by CAC, not SAC, expanding production of the J-20. SAC would only be involved if the concern is that SAC doesn't have enough orders until the 6th gen is ready.

If the concern is just numbers, then having CAC expanding factory floor space and build additional production lines is more cost efficient than having SAC building a new production line for a new type that the PLAAF for many years have not been very enthused about. If the concern is SAC's lack of orders then you can have SAC build J-20s utilizing existing supply chain for J-20s, which would simplify logistics for a side project that's primarily a concern for just a few years until the 6th gen is ready for production.

 

[Tomboy]

1000 J-20s within seven years back by 1000 capable and high capacity multi-role platform like J-16 is far more useful than 1000 J-20 air superiority fighter backed by another mainly air superiority stealth fighter like J-35.

You still refuse to account into the fact that in 7 years PLAAF will have J-36 operational for PL-17 or more advanced missile internal carriage. A force of 1000 J-20s plus 500-600 J-35A, ~100-150 6th generation fighters and 400-500 J-16 by 2032 is a much better idea especially as enemies start fielding more and more advanced radars and missiles forcing non stealth assest to be pushed further and further back. Your strike package will be useless if they are easily downed by enemy fighters due to not being able to achieve absolute air superiority.

 

[Deino]

No, the rampup started a few years ago up to 70 around 2023 and then up again to around 100 last year. The J-16 production numbers are going up in the recent past not winding down as J-10s are inducted in ever decreasing numbers.

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The Flanker lines and components streams with J-16 and J-15 variants will be busy for years. You need range and carrying capacity whether PLAAF or PLAN. You cannot carry much fuel or ordance internally period.

I think the all-stealth force that people suddenly think is available "now that we have the J-35" is highly irrational.

These numbers are actually unlikely Even more so since they Never fit to the known Units.

 

[GiantPanda]

You still refuse to account into the fact that in 7 years PLAAF will have J-36 operational for PL-17 or more advanced missile internal carriage. A force of 1000 J-20s plus 500-600 J-35A, ~100-150 6th generation fighters and 400-500 J-16 by 2032 is a much better idea especially as enemies start fielding more and more advanced radars and missiles forcing non stealth assest to be pushed further and further back. Your strike package will be useless if they are easily downed by enemy fighters due to not being able to achieve absolute air superiority.

I do not take into account any significant numbers of J-36 in 7 years. That is way too optimistic.

There is no way to ramp J-35A or any 6th gen to get us numbers like the J-16 in the coming 5 years.

If you look at PLAAF doctrine with the very long range and very big A2A missiles, pushing the cutting edge on radar and shear numbers of AEW aircraft, they are looking to a long range A2A mission even against stealth aircraft.

The J-20 doesn't carry a gun and the most power A2A weapons are carried on J-16, so think about this.

The Rafale's Spectre system never detecting the PL-15E over India is a taste of that kind of warfare that the PLAAF envision, I think.

I don't think the PLAAF see a furball where thousands of J-20s backed by J-35s take on the US and Allies F-35s. That would be disadvantageous to PLAAF.

I think they see J-16s launching missiles far beyond the range of the enemy's weapens guided by midcourse assets and protected by a top cover of J-20s.

That's just for the A2A mission.

 

[GiantPanda]

These numbers are actually unlikely Even more so since they Never fit to the known Units.

I'll stand corrected on the exact numbers.

Do you see J-16 production going up or winding down?

 

[Andy1974]

Guancha trio mentioned the number of J-35A is probably going to be less that the number of J-10 produced.

My prediction is 300-450 aircraft for the PLAAF.

This is based of my assumption that each theater command gets the same number of regiments and squadrons to make for easy planning, training and logistics.

In other words, there will be 5 commands controlling 90 aircraft, split between 3 regiments of 30 aircraft. 5 x 3 x 30 =450.

It’s possible each command gets only 2 regiments which would mean a total of 300. 5 x 2 x 30=300.

Based on this I expect the deployment plan to be done in batches of 150 aircraft, 5 x 1 x 30, delivered 10 a time evenly, geographically across the commands.

To keep things simple I think SAC will build dedicated production facilities for each variant, I believe they have the resources, land, and talent to be able to build variants simultaneously, even though it is hard.

So, I expect the J-35A will be able to have an uninterrupted production run to build out the PLAAF fleet to its full extent quickly and efficiently. There might be a technology update after each 150 aircraft are delivered for 3 different versions when production is stopped.

How quick? Well CAC says it’s easy to build, so it’s a mistake to use previous aircraft production numbers as a guide to the J-35A, we have to throw out all our assumptions.

Thanks for listening.

 

[Maikeru]

It doesn't work like that for J-10s. NTC has many more J-10 Bdes than any other TC. WTC only has 1 J10 Bde.

 

[Andy1974]

It doesn't work like that for J-10s. NTC has many more J-10 Bdes than any other TC. WTC only has 1 J10 Bde.

This brings up another thing I have been thinking about a lot: I don’t think F-35A is meant to replace J-10.

J-35 is a different thing, it won’t be used the same way as a J-10, there is no need to hang on to any J-10 protocols at all. Even if China didn’t have any J-10 at all, I still think the J-35A would be built as I proposed above which covers Chinas geographies including dealing with India.

I am trying to have the mindset where I think about the J-35A as a new beginning for a new era for the PLA, as the foundation for the future as the extremely high quality lowest tier of the PLAAF production while being higher quality than the opponents highest tier, in real life, for a certain period.

It’s such a frightening thought for the opponent, it should be enough to deter at attack and maybe an intervention.