Indeed, everyone knows, one could never get enough J-20s and I'm sure CAC and the PLAAF will agree!
J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
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Indeed, everyone knows, one could never get enough J-20s and I'm sure CAC and the PLAAF will agree!
There can always be lens distortion.
Updating my table a little...
They should've likely broke through the three digit mark in late 2021 sometime
Feeling very good about my forecasting right now
Feeling very good about my forecasting right now
Which forecast was this again?
Always interested in trading notes
They are relaxed and happy
Remember when I asked if we had crossed 100 a few months back? I didn’t want to overshoot an estimate at the time but my thinking was, given in 2018 we were hearing chatter about a second production line being built for the J-20, and given that LRIP seemed to peak at about 10-12 units per year on presumably a single production line, that a reasonable rate of production would be ~12 in 2017 and 2018, and then 24 from 2019 onward. Which would lead us to the edge of 100 units by the end of 2021. Given right before the pandemic the consensus seemed to be that we were maybe approaching 40-50 units, it seemed reasonable to me that by the end of 2020 assuming production wasn’t too disrupted we would be hitting at least 70 and maybe up to 80 units. It’s entirely possible that in 2020 production was in fact disrupted and the rate slowed, but CAC could have made up for shortfalls over the duration of 2021. After seeing the very large shipment of J-20s last fall I felt a bit more confident that these estimates were closer to the ballpark of where things were than other more conservative counting methods, hence why I floated the question about whether we’d hit 100 units, to see where everyone else was at.
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