J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

Deino said:

So it is not directly aimed against me but against that guy who posted it on Twitter first? But in fact I received the low-quality version via Facebook.

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Yeah, I think they’re just generally upset that foreign network got wind of this so quickly, nothing personal.

Come to think of it, Deino, my impression is that people on Chinese internet generally have a quite positive opinion of you (not spreading misinformation, very knowledgeable on Chinese military, and somehow always being able to get wind of news very quickly)

not to say there aren’t a fair amount of trash talking involved (some of it tossed around jokingly, some being genuinely aggressive), but generally speaking I think people see you as a rather capable and interesting foreigner

Blitzo said:

I mean, the picture isn't very high quality, and also the WS-10 with TVC nozzle on the J-10B was a testbed anyhow.

There's certainly no reason why a TVC nozzle on J-20 testbed (whether it's WS-10 or WS-15) needs to look identical to the WS-10 TVC nozzle on J-10B. If anything it would be a bit strange if it was fully identical imo.


That isn't to say I think the pic is 100% real, but imo any external differences or similarities from the WS-10 TVC on the J-10B testbed, is largely not useful for the purposes of determining this picture's authenticity.

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taxiya said:

The TVC looks very different from WS-10 TVC. At this quality, it should be clear to see the details. WS-10 TVC's outer petals are two pieces joint by a hinge. This one has a ridge without hinge. WS-10 TVC's interior petals also have joints with hinges connecting to neighbouring petals. This one doesn't.

The other possible explanation is that this is WS-15TVC. But the ridges serving no purpose kills this explanation IMO.

So I am inclined to say it is a PS.

BTW, the tail boom look alright for me. The other photo in #7,255 does show very faint but noticeable composite sections of the booms. It fits the photos that I have of prototype 2012.

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Tbh I still don’t think we can say for sure the nozzle is different. The lack of pivot joint lines might just be from that part of the nozzle being slightly out of focus, for example. I think now that we know there’s a J-20B we’ll definitively know what the WS-15 nozzle will look like when we see a non WS-10C nozzle flying on that airframe.

latenlazy said:

Tbh I still don’t think we can say for sure the nozzle is different. The lack of pivot joint lines might just be from that part of the nozzle being slightly out of focus, for example. I think now that we know there’s a J-20B we’ll definitively know what the WS-15 nozzle will look like when we see a non WS-10C nozzle flying on that airframe.

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Sure, to be clear my point is that I don't think the authenticity of the picture is supported by whether the nozzle is the same or different.

That is to say, I think the picture can be real whether it shows the same nozzle as the WS-10 TVC or if it is different. Whether it actually is different or not, is something I don't have a position on.

KampfAlwin said:

This person has a better quality photo

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643624494299217923

View attachment 110497

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I'm leaning toward this being a PS. There was an older, blurry picture that more likely showed the WS-15 and the engine was noticeably stubbier than its counterpart (AL-31FN or WS-10C). In addition, the intake geometry on the side with the WS-15 looked different as well.

Here this engine has almost the same length as the AL-31FN and something looks off about the canard on the right side of the aircraft. The lighter coloured fringe is absent from the leading and trailing edges.

Schwerter_ said:

Yeah, I think they’re just generally upset that foreign network got wind of this so quickly, nothing personal.

Come to think of it, Deino, my impression is that people on Chinese internet generally have a quite positive opinion of you (not spreading misinformation, very knowledgeable on Chinese military, and somehow always being able to get wind of news very quickly)

not to say there aren’t a fair amount of trash talking involved (some of it tossed around jokingly, some being genuinely aggressive), but generally speaking I think people see you as a rather capable and interesting foreigner

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Of course. The renowned “德国老特务”.

ZeEa5KPul said:

I'm leaning toward this being a PS. There was an older, blurry picture that more likely showed the WS-15 and the engine was noticeably stubbier than its counterpart (AL-31FN or WS-10C). In addition, the intake geometry on the side with the WS-15 looked different as well.

Here this engine has almost the same length as the AL-31FN and something looks off about the canard on the right side of the aircraft. The lighter coloured fringe is absent from the leading and trailing edges.

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In fact I don't know what to think right now ... I'm surprised that after the long waiting for years, the reaction on this finally clearer image is rather surprisingly low. This might be based on the fact, that this images leaves some more open questions than it gives answers, since we have been fooled so often recently:

My biggest concerns are:
- the grey surface of the J-20 is too smooth (looks edited afterwards)
- the first known photo of a J-20 prototype + WS-15 shows it with a red star on the tail unit, the new photo shows the no. 2012 (so either another prototype, or different date of photo?)
- I always assumed that the length of the afterburner nozzle differs, but this does not seem to be the case here (almost the same length as AL-31FN)

... and there is, unusually, almost no discussion about this photo?

So what is the current status? Real or fake, real and edited? I actually don't know but maybe this helps to identify.

Deino said:

In fact I don't know what to think right now ... I'm surprised that after the long waiting for years, the reaction on this finally clearer image is rather surprisingly low. This might be based on the fact, that this images leaves some more open questions than it gives answers, since we have been fooled so often recently:

My biggest concerns are:
- the grey surface of the J-20 is too smooth (looks edited afterwards)
- the first known photo of a J-20 prototype + WS-15 shows it with a red star on the tail unit, the new photo shows the no. 2012 (so either another prototype, or different date of photo?)
- I always assumed that the length of the afterburner nozzle differs, but this does not seem to be the case here (almost the same length as AL-31FN)

... and there is, unusually, almost no discussion about this photo?

So what is the current status? Real or fake, real and edited? I actually don't know but maybe this helps to identify.

View attachment 110544View attachment 110543

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I think one of the reasons there isn’t as much discussion is because it’s coming on the tail end of much bigger news about the WS-15. It’s nice to get a higher quality picture of this test plane finally but it’s also not like we haven’t known about it for basically two years now. At this point I think people are just waiting to see the WS-15 enter production, or at least see a version equipped on the J-20B, and to learn about more about its performance. The picture itself shows testing that is now purported to be at an earlier stage than what’s been the present situation with the engine is if recent widely publicized news is to be believed. There’s also still some ambiguity about whether this engine in the picture actually is the WS-15 and without hard confirmation there’s going to some hesitance to make too big a deal out of it.

That said, after thinking about it for a day I’m reasonably certain this picture is real. The whole image, not just the nozzle shroud, looks very smeared, and I suspect that’s probably due to very aggressive noise reduction done on the image. The nozzle lengths between the AL-31 and this mystery engine don’t concern me too much because the relative lengths between the two might vary with how contracted the nozzles are, especially if one is TVC and might be deflected distally. After all our second best image of this test plane’s backside also show that the length difference is not so significant.

Deino said:

In fact I don't know what to think right now ... I'm surprised that after the long waiting for years, the reaction on this finally clearer image is rather surprisingly low. This might be based on the fact, that this images leaves some more open questions than it gives answers, since we have been fooled so often recently:

My biggest concerns are:
- the grey surface of the J-20 is too smooth (looks edited afterwards)
- the first known photo of a J-20 prototype + WS-15 shows it with a red star on the tail unit, the new photo shows the no. 2012 (so either another prototype, or different date of photo?)
- I always assumed that the length of the afterburner nozzle differs, but this does not seem to be the case here (almost the same length as AL-31FN)

... and there is, unusually, almost no discussion about this photo?

So what is the current status? Real or fake, real and edited? I actually don't know but maybe this helps to identify.

View attachment 110544View attachment 110543

Click to expand...

Also @Deino if you look closely enough the new picture of 2012 does show a red star. It’s just very washed out, probably because of poor lighting and aggressive noise reduction.

Indeed ...

Image released by AVIC: