PiSigma
"the engineer"
What! No such thing. If you going to make fanboy claims, at least back it up with a fake article from Minnie chan.
J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
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by78
General
Why do you believe that? What sources or justification can you offer for this observation?
Please DO tell us.
Do you maths? It's been pretty well established there's been more than 25 x J-20s in service by the end of 2019. Quite likely far more than two dozen. I'm not sure what SDF's semi official count is at now but PLAAF is well on its way to operating 100 J-20s very soon. People on the ground in Chengdu and airbases where J-20s are stationed photograph them like happy meal toys. They're everywhere now. Can't even keep track of the photos.
You surely know at least and others are more than eager to take every single image from any base and at least to my understanding this "on its way to operating 100 J-20s very soon" is highly unlikely since we only know from three operational bases, we know only reports of three operational bases - Dingxin, Cangzhou and Wuhu - and - I know it is no proof - we know only 19 J-20s by individual numbers. As such I'm quite sure if any new base or unit, if any new serial number besides the three known 78x7x, 78x3x and 62x0x would have appeared and I'm sure I'm not the only one.
As such don't hesitate to "keep track of the photos" ... at least I will if you cannot.
There is a site that keeps photos of individual j-20s and other aircraft assorted by their tail numbers. I've recently misplaced the link to it. Would you happen to know it and kindly flash it once? ( I'm almost sure it isn't scramble.orbat)
Real figure is probably somewhere between 48 and 72 I think, but probably *much* closer to the low end. Kind of interesting that we didn’t hit 100 airframes before CAC switched engines. Might also end up being the case for the WS-10 variant.
I'm not sure if its correct to assume that the number of airframes manufactured, change of configurations( vis engines etc) are solely bottlenecked by production capacity. J20 is a new addition to plaaf and brings along capabilities not displayed by any aircraft present as of yet in plaaf.
As such, they'll have to figure out the best possible use of it, absorb its abilities and shortcomings into larger mission-focused force package, which is bound to take time.
The initial squadrons will most likely mature into testing and training units, and so it makes sense to rush and populate these units to allow them enough time to produce tactics and combat doctrine.
But further production will be dictated by the role these aircraft fill in plaaf formations. So we might see different numbers based on what role is delegated to the aircraft.( lesser units if only for interdiction/air superiority and more units for strike missions)
Yes, thats what i was looking for.
Thanks Deino.
These are all reasonable points, but I think it’s also true that retooling, retraining, and maintaining quality at scale all take time to achieve, and China actually does not yet have a mature industrial base for large scale advanced airplane manufacturing.
Hmmm?... I would go even lower; 48 would be my highest bet.
IMO both the 176th and 172nd have at best 8 each and even if we assume that reports are correct and a second squadron (dadui) was formed at the 9th Brigade, that would sum up to only 16 (2x 8) J-20s or in sum 24 all Batch 01 aircraft (with AL-31FN).
I would agree that probably a similar number is now also ready - maybe a third dadui of 8 from Batch 01 (or altogether 30) - and about 18 from Batch 02 using the WS-10C, but that anyway ends at best at 48.
Anyway I'm quite sure we would have heard anything if a new unit would be operational and consequently I don't believe what @ougoah said: "People on the ground in Chengdu and airbases where J-20s are stationed photograph them like happy meal toys. They're everywhere now. Can't even keep track of the photos."
IMO they are not everywhere now and we simply can't keep track due to the lack of the photos.
Just my 2 Cents.
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