J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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Blitzo

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Aaaanyway.
Huitong's blog has image of J20 serials from various plaaf units.
9th brigade has serial codes documented in a range from 01 to 27.
1st brigade has serial codes from 02 to 18.
Three more brigades have just one serial documented.

So... would the range from 02 to 18 suggest there's not many more than 18 planes in said brigade?
Or would the 01 to 27 range suggest there's more than 24 planes in said brigade?

How often does PLAAF use gaps in their serials on purpose?

There's also the example of J16.
There the 98th brigade has serials document in a range from 03 to 33 AND there's another serial number which would correspond to 96. Which is quite weird.
The 7th brigade has serials ranging from 01 to 28 documented.
The 40th brigade has serials from 01 to 24 documented.
The 3rd brigade has serials from 01 to 29. Though there's a huge gap in between, from 07 to 20.

Assuming all those J16 brigades don't have gaps (ignoring the peculiar 96 serial for the moment) that would suggest most J16 brigades (if not all) have around 30 or even little over 30 planes each.

So with that precedent, it's also plausible J20 brigades could be bigger. It would appear plausible that current brigades featuring modern planes are made to be larger and that they have more planes. But do we have other indications pointing in that direction, that J20 brigades are in fact quite large?

AIUI, the tentative expectation and hypothesis for the last few years, is that a full outfitted frontline fighter air brigade has 30 aircraft, including for J-20s.

Given we know that the PLA are deliberately aware and sensitive of giving away serial numbers of new aircraft units, especially for more newer and more strategically significant aircraft like J-20, it may be that the first pictures "proving" that a newly outfitted J-20 brigade has received its late 20ish or 30th airframe serial, may be many months or even years after the fact.
 

Tirdent

Junior Member
Registered Member
I seem to remember a time when you insisted that marketing oriented sources were more credible because customers kept them honest and accountable.

Care to remind me? If there's anything I consistently advocate it's to always hold marketing claims against concrete engineering solutions to judge whether they hold water.

“Central spar” is the specific term I’m seeing. Even if it’s not the main spanwise spar that hardly means it’s not structurally significant.

Spars by definition are spanwise. It might be the main landing gear stub spar based on size, and that would be a very highly loaded part, but why would you not just use a one-piece titanium forging (Tu-204 shown for reference*)?

014363.jpg

(Possible answer: time and cost - not likely weight and strength though)

Ah, so if the US, EU, Russia, or Japan don’t do it it’s therefore not valid or real? I’m sorry but what happened to the engineering and science speaking for itself?

But if nobody else is doing it, despite evidently having the ability, the engineering and science do speak quite eloquently for themselves, do they not? Disruption is real, but invariably linked to specific enabling solutions that remove road blocks which hitherto prevented adoption of a certain technology. Similar story with the oft-touted potential from distributed propulsion in electric aircraft - could've been done before without electrics, but didn't buy its way onto mainstream aircraft. So why assume it'll magically work better now?

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(Another, perhaps even more pertinent, example of distributed propulsion by mechanical means which doesn't get mentioned is the Breguet 941)

These enablers need not even be truly novel (a characteristic of Elon Musk's ventures is that they're based on cleverly combining mature technologies in new ways and applications), but they can be named. So what's the secret that enables SAC/CAC to do with 3D printing what nobody else is doing? Let the engineering and science speak, I'm all for it!

Unless you can give me the specific grain characteristics of the titanium that came out of the printer, or post printing treatment process for the part, or the force loading simulations for the whole part or the whole frame the part will be included in, your “first principle” reasons are mostly just a cover for judgment by conjecture. SAC will have done far more actual engineering legwork about the viability of their parts or their process than you or I ever could with appeals to “first principles” reasoning. “Magic” is not a satisfactory answer but neither are “first principles reasons” based on personal conjecture.

This is bass-ackwards. The limitations of metal 3D printing are most definitely NOT conjecture - again, it's therefore on its proponents to provide the detailed and specific answers to how it *can* match forged material properties after all. I'm not going to write a paper in an online forum, but 3D printing, very basically, uses selective, layered deposition of melted metal feedstock. Which ever way you cut it, the effect on grain flow from mechanical forces during forging is lacking entirely.

Unless of course we are talking about something like Arconic's Ampliforge process when we say post printing treatment . If we all agree that "conventional" machined forgings aren't cast parts (despite ultimately stemming from a cast ingot) though, what's the basis for considering an Ampliforge part a 3D printing? In effect, we've merely replaced the cast ingot with a near-net-shape 3D printed blank, in the end it's still a machined forging, right? And it is the forging process which endows it with its strength, and the machining which is responsible for its weight - 3D printing the blank merely saved time and money.

Well, marketing is the incentive for pretending it's something radically different from a established practice, and in that the lead times are going to be cut dramatically, I can even see some justification in it here. But where's the weight saving - the end result is pretty much identical? That's the problem with marketing that lacks any reference to the specifics of the technology, people take it and run with it, they make assumptions and then you get pervasive misconceptions. That's exactly what I meant when I criticized that one-minute video as insufficient evidence.

* Note how basically the entire interior of the wing is bolted together from very large (~3m and above) machined forgings. Not much scope for weight saving by combining previously separate parts into a single one with current 3D printing tech... in a 1980s Soviet design!
 
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Hyper

Junior Member
Registered Member
Care to remind me? If there's anything I consistently advocate it's to always hold marketing claims against concrete engineering solutions to judge whether they hold water.



Spars by definition are spanwise. It might be the main landing gear stub spar based on size, and that would be a very highly loaded part, but why would you not just use a one-piece titanium forging (Tu-204 shown for reference*)?

View attachment 91965

(Possible answer: time and cost - not likely weight and strength though)



But if nobody else is doing it, despite evidently having the ability, the engineering and science do speak quite eloquently for themselves, do they not? Disruption is real, but invariably linked to specific enabling solutions that remove road blocks which hitherto prevented adoption of a certain technology. Similar story with the oft-touted potential from distributed propulsion in electric aircraft - could've been done before without electrics, but didn't buy its way onto mainstream aircraft. So why assume it'll magically work better now?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

(Another, perhaps even more pertinent, example of distributed propulsion by mechanical means which doesn't get mentioned is the Breguet 941)

These enablers need not even be truly novel (a characteristic of Elon Musk's ventures is that they're based on cleverly combining mature technologies in new ways and applications), but they can be named. So what's the secret that enables SAC/CAC to do with 3D printing what nobody else is doing? Let the engineering and science speak, I'm all for it!



This is bass-ackwards. The limitations of metal 3D printing are most definitely NOT conjecture - again, it's therefore on its proponents to provide the detailed and specific answers to how it *can* match forged material properties after all. I'm not going to write a paper in an online forum, but 3D printing, very basically, uses selective, layered deposition of melted metal feedstock. Which ever way you cut it, the effect on grain flow from mechanical forces during forging is lacking entirely.

Unless of course we are talking about something like Arconic's Ampliforge process when we say post printing treatment . If we all agree that "conventional" machined forgings aren't cast parts (despite ultimately stemming from a cast ingot) though, what's the basis for considering an Ampliforge part a 3D printing? In effect, we've merely replaced the cast ingot with a near-net-shape 3D printed blank, in the end it's still a machined forging, right? And it is the forging process which endows it with its strength, and the machining which is responsible for its weight - 3D printing the blank merely saved time and money.

Well, marketing is the incentive for pretending it's something radically different from a established practice, and in that the lead times are going to be cut dramatically, I can even see some justification in it here. But where's the weight saving - the end result is pretty much identical? That's the problem with marketing that lacks any reference to the specifics of the technology, people take it and run with it, they make assumptions and then you get pervasive misconceptions. That's exactly what I meant when I criticized that one-minute video as insufficient evidence.

* Note how basically the entire interior of the wing is bolted together from very large (~3m and above) machined forgings. Not much scope for weight saving by combining previously separate parts into a single one with current 3D printing tech... in a 1980s Soviet design!
Absolutely this. The prophets and missionaries of 3D printing never want to listen to its downsides and shortcomings.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think whether 3D printing is used for J-20 bulkheads is a different question from whether those bulkheads have had their weights reduced. The former does not automatically confirm the latter. However, in theory so long as center of mass of the airframe is preserved it’s not unlikely for them to include as much weight savings as possible with minimal amounts of additional testing.
I did not argue that using 3D printing saved any weight for J-20 although it usually does. The 3 ton to 144kg is only the processing mass comparison that Wang Huaming used to tell the advantage. A hypothetically 3D printed bulkhead of F-22 would still be 144kg, but without wasting the time to start from 3 ton cast.

But usually these kinds of changes to weight and structure follow an iteration of the model number, to be packaged together with other tests that have to be done for a new model iteration. Because the changes to production and the design from a mechanical performance standpoint are not trivial and can’t just be introduced to the production line on a whim.
This is the interesting part that allows all possibilities. This is how I see it, prototype 200X is iteration 0, prototype 201X can be seen as iteration 2, low volume serial production (AL31 equipped) being iteration 3, large volume production (WS10 equipped) being iteration 4. Between 0 and 1 there was the change of intake and engine compartment, between 3 and 4 there was the change of engines. Both are big structural changes which fit your suggestion IMO. I am inclined to think that it was between 0 and 1 because 200Xs are very different from anything after them both inside and outside. The change of shape (intake, LERX edge, engine compartment) changes its aerodynamic centre which is why the centre of mass (also affected by the engine compartment change) must be adjusted to match, that change is probably more difficult than changing the bulkhead alone.

[addtion]

At the very least, one can deliberately make the 3D made bulkhead heavier than it need to be to match the old one, therefor eliminate the need of design change. What you gain is saving of production time and increased reliability and strength. The weight saving can be done in future iteration. All you need is to guarantee the quality of the 3D printing which was proven before 2012.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
Spars by definition are spanwise. It might be the main landing gear stub spar based on size, and that would be a very highly loaded part, but why would you not just use a one-piece titanium forging (Tu-204 shown for reference*)?

View attachment 91965

(Possible answer: time and cost - not likely weight and strength though)
The point is that if they're using the method in a highly loaded part, that means the method is competitive in strength characteristics for that application. You can try to dance around the point but the utilization of the 3D printed part is self evident.



But if nobody else is doing it, despite evidently having the ability, the engineering and science do speak quite eloquently for themselves, do they not? Disruption is real, but invariably linked to specific enabling solutions that remove road blocks which hitherto prevented adoption of a certain technology. Similar story with the oft-touted potential from distributed propulsion in electric aircraft - could've been done before without electrics, but didn't buy its way onto mainstream aircraft. So why assume it'll magically work better now?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Who else is printing 3D parts that big? The logic you're using is nonsensical for assessing *any* kind of engineering claim. It's like saying because Boeing is the only company using single piece carbon composites for the fuselage this technology must be unbelievable and imaginary.

(Another, perhaps even more pertinent, example of distributed propulsion by mechanical means which doesn't get mentioned is the Breguet 941)

These enablers need not even be truly novel (a characteristic of Elon Musk's ventures is that they're based on cleverly combining mature technologies in new ways and applications), but they can be named. So what's the secret that enables SAC/CAC to do with 3D printing what nobody else is doing? Let the engineering and science speak, I'm all for it!
You do know there has been a lot of research and development on different methods such as reducing grain size, developing melt or deposition patterns that can be post treated to generate specific grain patterns, and application of other kinds of post printing treatment that can drastically improve material strength right? SAC doesn't need to have done something hitherto unknown and magical in the world of 3D printing to make their 3D printed parts stronger. Furthermore, you don't always need the part to match or exceed forging in every way. Strength just needs to be adequate enough to meet the engineering requirements.

But again, the logic you're employing here is also nonsensical. It's like saying stealth in nonsense in the 80s because no one can name the specific details of technologies used, or saying the Chinese two stage hypersonic vehicle that gotten the Pentagon all spooked out is imaginary because no has laid out the specific techniques they used to overcome known issues with those technologies.

We don't need to speculate far to figure out what might've been done. Just do some open source research on the different things people have already been doing to improve the material strength and reliability of parts built from 3D printing. Regardless, if we want to let the engineering and science speak, nothing speaks louder than engineers and scientists actually putting something into adoption. Just because it falls short of your sense of comprehension and believability doesn't mean the engineering isn't speaking. The goalposts you're erecting here are false ones, in several ways.


This is bass-ackwards. The limitations of metal 3D printing are most definitely NOT conjecture - again, it's therefore on its proponents to provide the detailed and specific answers to how it *can* match forged material properties after all. I'm not going to write a paper in an online forum, but 3D printing, very basically, uses selective, layered deposition of melted metal feedstock. Which ever way you cut it, the effect on grain flow from mechanical forces during forging is lacking entirely.
You're basically employing the same logic as people 20 years ago who were skeptical of single piece carbon fiber being used for major structural parts in aerospace. Again, you keep treating the limitations of 3D printing like they're locked in laws of nature that can't be tractably addressed and resolved, when even a basic open source survey of the state of the technology will tell you that is clearly not the case.

One could just as easily say the burden of proof is on you to provide detailed and specific answers for why you think SAC doesn't know what it's doing, given that regardless of how you try to dance around the point they've deemed the process sufficient for their designs.

Well, marketing is the incentive for pretending it's something radically different from a established practice, and in that the lead times are going to be cut dramatically, I can even see some justification in it here. But where's the weight saving - the end result is pretty much identical? That's the problem with marketing that lacks any reference to the specifics of the technology, people take it and run with it, they make assumptions and then you get pervasive misconceptions. That's exactly what I meant when I criticized that one-minute video as insufficient evidence.

* Note how basically the entire interior of the wing is bolted together from very large (~3m and above) machined forgings. Not much scope for weight saving by combining previously separate parts into a single one with current 3D printing tech... in a 1980s Soviet design!
As I've said before in a different post, use of 3D printing is not in of itself definitive evidence of weight saving. My main point in this round of exchanges was to address this notion that 3D printed parts couldn't possibly be used for load bearing structures. In China they already are. Either you're wrong about your sense of where the technology is, or Chinese engineers are clueless and dumb putting this technology into production of major structural parts. People can make up their own minds from there...

Btw when the large single piece 3D printing story came out, the claim was not that the C919 wing spar saved weight. The C919 wing spar was an example of the record breaking dimensions of the 3D printer. The weight saving claim was specific to the bulkheads for the FC-31.

EDIT: Having re-reviewed the original sources we're discussing about here, the weight saving claim was actually not specific to the bulkheads for the FC-31, but was specifically a claim that if the F-22 had used their 3D printed titanium process it could have seen a 40% reduction in weight for its titanium parts.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
I did not argue that using 3D printing saved any weight for J-20 although it usually does. The 3 ton to 144kg is only the processing mass comparison that Wang Huaming used to tell the advantage. A hypothetically 3D printed bulkhead of F-22 would still be 144kg, but without wasting the time to start from 3 ton cast.
I wasn't saying specifically that you did, but because that seems to be a point of emphasis in this discussion I wanted to address it directly.
 

stannislas

Junior Member
Registered Member
I did not argue that using 3D printing saved any weight for J-20 although it usually does. The 3 ton to 144kg is only the processing mass comparison that Wang Huaming used to tell the advantage. A hypothetically 3D printed bulkhead of F-22 would still be 144kg, but without wasting the time to start from 3 ton cast.
yes and no, bulkhead by itself, maybe, but you got to understand rivit process requires extra structure to reinforce the joint in compare with a single piece, which that is the major weight added on, and a single piece major reinforce structure could weight more than 144kg...
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
But if nobody else is doing it, despite evidently having the ability, the engineering and science do speak quite eloquently for themselves, do they not? Disruption is real, but invariably linked to specific enabling solutions that remove road blocks which hitherto prevented adoption of a certain technology. Similar story with the oft-touted potential from distributed propulsion in electric aircraft - could've been done before without electrics, but didn't buy its way onto mainstream aircraft. So why assume it'll magically work better now?
Isn't your argument kind of "I can not do it, so nobody can or it is useless, I don't understand so nobody do, I don't see it so it is not there."?:rolleyes:

Those nobody else is UNABLE to do it, not they don't want to. So the engineering and science achievement by China do speak eloquently for themselves. The strength of the 3D printed titenium structure have been proven in long time fatigue and load test, one of them for a not named new jet fighter (you can guess) has been tested for more than 8000 hours for more than a year before 2012. Has any of your "nobody else" done it? C919's wing root beams are 3D printed. They have been flying around for years while being closely examined and also being "abused" on the static test rig. Aren't these actions engineering and science?
 
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