J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
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Not even any photo evidence?
Please. Seduce me with US dollars. Don't just flirt.
We have rumours about new production lines gradually spooling up -- but we do not know what the maximum possible production rate per line is.
The assumption that 12-15 J-20s per year as a "minimum" is quite fraught -- for all we know, 12 J-20s per year might be the maximum, and even with increases in efficiencies, you will not be able to deliver more than one or two airframes in a year from a single line. Certainly not doubling the rate, not without significant expansion in the actual production floorspace and tooling and personnel.
My personal estimate is that I think CAC this year can produce over 30 J-20s, possibly nearly 40.
Going forwards, once the J-10 line is transferred to Guizhou and if it is converted to J-20, they may be able to reach near 50 J-20s.
Anymore than that (certainly not 60-80 airframes!) would require expansion of factory floorspace, personnel, and tooling, all of which would require long term planning to have happened sometime ago if we want to see it kick in in the next few years.
I.e.: it is not just a matter of funding and budget -- it is also a matter of time, land, personnel, and other long lead factors.
Comparisons to F-35 are not useful, given the F-35 program draws upon far more extensive subsuppliers and aerospace companies than CAC and was intended from the outset to be able to deliver triple digit airframes annually, with the subsuppliers and factory space all lined up.
The size of Lockheed's Plant 4 at Fort Worth is also massive, and outscales CAC by a decent margin.
At the end of the day, J-20 annual deliver is going to have a "peak sustainable production rate". I think we should think carefully about just how high or low that peak rate may be.
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The J-20 is too expensive a fighter to replace entire existing fleet in PLAAF.
I doubt it will be built in higher numbers than whole Flanker production. Still that would be quite a lot of aircraft.
It might be only produced in same numbers as lead fighter amount of Flankers. i.e. around 300-400.
I doubt it will be built in higher numbers than whole Flanker production. Still that would be quite a lot of aircraft.
It might be only produced in same numbers as lead fighter amount of Flankers. i.e. around 300-400.
China has more than 500 Flankers. Counting the PLANAF's J-15s and Su-30MK2s and the number exceeds 600.
I think the Su-30MK2 will be replaced with the J-16. Or China might develop an upgrade package for it to bring it to J-16 level.
And the J-15's future once the J-XY comes out is kind of doubtful.
Will the PLAN want to use a heavy/medium fighter combination or just use the J-XY? Will we ever see a naval J-20?
There is a question over what will replace the J-16. If a dual seater J-20 if something else. Might even be a whole new aircraft.
I personally think the J-20's internal bays are just too small for a twin jet bomber role.
And the J-15's future once the J-XY comes out is kind of doubtful.
Will the PLAN want to use a heavy/medium fighter combination or just use the J-XY? Will we ever see a naval J-20?
There is a question over what will replace the J-16. If a dual seater J-20 if something else. Might even be a whole new aircraft.
I personally think the J-20's internal bays are just too small for a twin jet bomber role.
It is clear that China Air Force would have to shift to J-20 to confront F-35s and its successors. So the number of J-20s would not be limited by 300-400, unless there is another new fifth generation light combat aircraft, or the sixth generation fighter makes a fabulous success.
For avionics and electronics devices, number of production is the most important factor to lower the price. So with the numbers of J-20s increases, the price would drop significantly like that of F-35s.
It makes no sense to keep MKK series around for too long. Just additional fleet/engine/missiles you have to support. If I were PLA, I'd see if Russia is interested in buying the 24 su-35s. Having just domestic fleet, engines and missiles would allow them to significantly lower maintenance costs.
J-16s are good, but you only need so many bomb trucks long term. That would be their role with PLAF. In terms of A2A, it's just not competitive with J-20s.
As I have said before, J-20 production/maintenance/operation costs will only keep coming down as they increase production rate and have more of them in service. Every time you double the production rate, your production costs come down 15%. As they have more units/spares around, the maintenance and operating costs will also continue to come down.
There is no reason to cap production rate at 30 or 40 or even 50. Whatever PLAAF can afford and CAC can build, they should try to keep increasing the production rate.
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