J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

Bltizo said:

I don't think it's something can (or should) try to predict.

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IIRC posters suggested a 2-3 year timeline.

Also, for point scoring purposes:


Note that Gongke says "within the 3 year span [forwards or backwards] the majority of people will not have an opportunity to see the WS-15". That was posted in 2018. Now we are in 2021, mind you, so we're at the edge of the 3 year span.

He's also suggesting, if you trust the leaker, that a 15 petal nozzle is going to be a WS-15 as opposed to a WS-10.

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In any case, I would see the J-20 with WS-15 as a necessary, if delayed development. Technologically speaking, it's no big victory because the US seems on track to have NGAD out before 2030, and it will likely supersede both the F-35 and J-20 in capabilities. I actually suspect the PLAAF is using the J-20 as a publicity lure, while developments toward a counter-NGAD platform are going to be shrouded in secrecy until it's ready.

Inst said:

IIRC posters suggested a 2-3 year timeline.

Also, for point scoring purposes:

J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

I'll stick to the anus interpretation; the point is that it's funny and would definitely be an in-joke among the hobbyist community. An anus, after all, also resembles a chrysanthemum. Regarding vincent: If I consult my copy of 现代汉语词典, what I get is: 指说话前或后不久的日子. So soon is actually a valid...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

Note that Gongke says "within the 3 year span [forwards or backwards] the majority of people will not have an opportunity to see the WS-15". That was posted in 2018. Now we are in 2021, mind you, so we're at the edge of the 3 year span.

He's also suggesting, if you trust the leaker, that a 15 petal nozzle is going to be a WS-15 as opposed to a WS-10.

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In any case, I would see the J-20 with WS-15 as a necessary, if delayed development. Technologically speaking, it's no big victory because the US seems on track to have NGAD out before 2030, and it will likely supersede both the F-35 and J-20 in capabilities. I actually suspect the PLAAF is using the J-20 as a publicity lure, while developments toward a counter-NGAD platform are going to be shrouded in secrecy until it's ready.

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The timing of whether this is WS-15 or not, and when we can expect to see WS-15 in service, can certainly be argued to be viable.
Whether it will eventuate or not is another matter, given our long experience of following aerospace engine projects.
I'm at a point now where unless there are significant, obvious milestones made, engine predictions is nigh impossible to make.


As for WS-15 itself, the emergence of the powerplant is obviously beneficial for J-20 as an aircraft but also important for the pursuit of progressively more advanced aerospace engines itself. I would be surprised if a WS-15 variant did not power the PLA 6th gen effort in one way or another.

Bltizo said:

The timing of whether this is WS-15 or not, and when we can expect to see WS-15 in service, can certainly be argued to be viable.
Whether it will eventuate or not is another matter, given our long experience of following aerospace engine projects.
I'm at a point now where unless there are significant, obvious milestones made, engine predictions is nigh impossible to make.


As for WS-15 itself, the emergence of the powerplant is obviously beneficial for J-20 as an aircraft but also important for the pursuit of progressively more advanced aerospace engines itself. I would be surprised if a WS-15 variant did not power the PLA 6th gen effort in one way or another.

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If we can get confirmation as to whether this is the WS-15, there is a strong chance the engine could be ready to equip all J-20s within 2-3 years. AFAIK that was the discussion of the PLAAF engine certification program.

However, as I've previously stated, the J-20 would need inlet modifications to support the WS-15, given that inlet flow requirements between the WS-10 / AL-31 and WS-15 likely differ. We may end up seeing inlets more similar to the original J-20 prototype inlets due to the flow requirements.

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TBH, the most obvious sign that we're dealing with WS-15 would be a change in the DSI. A smaller DSI bump would imply that the WS-15 has been installed due to the greater airflow requirements of the WS-15.

Inst said:

If we can get confirmation as to whether this is the WS-15, there is a strong chance the engine could be ready to equip all J-20s within 2-3 years. AFAIK that was the discussion of the PLAAF engine certification program.

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I'm again surprised how you come to such a bold and IMO completely exaggerated idea!??

I'm in no way inclined to take the delays with the WS-10 program as a benchmark for the WS-15, but since when do we know the WS-10, when was the first WS-10 tested on a J-10 and after what delays and setbacks took it how long until we've finally seen operational J-10B with WS-10B? Similar, when have we seen the first WS-20 run and how long did it take until we've seen it on a Y-20??

As such this is - if real and I still have my doubts - eventually the very first image of a WS-15, at least one tested on a J-20 and now you assume this completely new engine should be ready within two years???

Sorry, but I can only contradict and again; i don't expect the delays as long as for the WS-10 & WS-15 but there is IMO NO chance the engine could be ready to equip all J-20s within 2-3 years!

Deino said:

I'm again surprised how you come to such a bold and IMO completely exaggerated idea!??

I'm in no way inclined to take the delays with the WS-10 program as a benchmark for the WS-15, but since when do we know the WS-10, when was the first WS-10 tested on a J-10 and after what delays and setbacks took it how long until we've finally seen operational J-10B with WS-10B? Similar, when have we seen the first WS-20 run and how long did it take until we've seen it on a Y-20??

As such this is - if real and I still have my doubts - eventually the very first image of a WS-15, at least one tested on a J-20 and now you assume this completely new engine should be ready within two years???

Sorry, but I can only contradict and again; i don't expect the delays as long as for the WS-10 & WS-15 but there is IMO NO chance the engine could be ready to equip all J-20s within 2-3 years!

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We're talking about certification processes. The WS-15 to date is likely not certified for use in the J-20. A test flight of a WS-15 on the J-20 indicates that the certification process is coming along. Likewise, the engine production for the WS-15 would have to hit mass production.

Lastly, I'd also cast doubt on the AVIC subsidiary publishing a report claiming that they wouldn't have mass production of the WS-15 ready. That's implicitly putting classified information into the public domain, so it could very well be the case that, one, other producers are responsible for non-prototype versions of the WS-15, and two, the AVIC subsidiary simply lied.

Significant development for serial number accountants. J-20 with 622XX, via . This is significant in that it isn't the rumored 61X2X at Anshan nor attributed to another known unit.



Also its a beautiful image but that is standard for the J-20.

11226p said:

Significant development for serial number accountants. J-20 with 622XX, via

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. This is significant in that it isn't the rumored 61X2X at Anshan nor attributed to another known unit.

View attachment 73861

Also its a beautiful image but that is standard for the J-20.

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It does look like 622XY

But if the X is zero -- i.e.: 6220Y -- then that would correspond with 9th brigade (62x0x).

Assuming this is from 9th brigade, well it would as good as confirm that 9th brigade has at least 20 J-20s...

Alternatively (and somewhat less likely imo), is that this is not 9th brigade but some other brigade -- however the placement of the third digit in 622XY, means whichever unit it is from, it has at least 20 aircraft.


Now, I think it's unlikely that there's just a new unit randomly popped up with an additional 20 J-20s.
But the idea that 9th brigade has at least 20 J-20s to me sounds very reasonable indeed.

@Deino

Bltizo said:

It does look like 622XY

But if the X is zero -- i.e.: 6220Y -- then that would correspond with 9th brigade (62x0x).

Assuming this is from 9th brigade, well it would as good as confirm that 9th brigade has at least 20 J-20s...

Alternatively (and somewhat less likely imo), is that this is not 9th brigade but some other brigade -- however the placement of the third digit in 622XY, means whichever unit it is from, it has at least 20 aircraft.


Now, I think it's unlikely that there's just a new unit randomly popped up with an additional 20 J-20s.
But the idea that 9th brigade has at least 20 J-20s to me sounds very reasonable indeed.

@Deino

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So here’s an interesting question. Are we at 100 J-20?

latenlazy said:

So here’s an interesting question. Are we at 100 J-20?

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I think so, very close anyway

latenlazy said:

So here’s an interesting question. Are we at 100 J-20?

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I'd fairly confident say no at this stage.

Simply because Cangzhou and Dingxin definitely do not have 20 J-20s each and Anshan won't have received its full complement either.

But I wouldn't be surprised if there was some 60+ aircraft in service.

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This 622xx serial IMO is important because it just demonstrates how variable things can be -- prior to it, the last highest serial from 9th brigade was an image 3-4 days ago of a J-20 with a semi obscured tail number of likely 62100 -- aka the 10th J-20 from the unit.
622xx would indicate at least the 20th J-20 from the same unit, meaning in less than a week the likely estimate for the number of J-20s at 9th brigade has at least doubled.

Which is indicative of why I don't trust "confirmed serial numbers" as an accurate reflection of "true aircraft in service" as far as I can throw any of the aircraft in question

antiterror13 said:

I think so, very close anyway

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On what basis do you think that?
Is it what you hope, or what you have estimated?