J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[Deleted member 13312]

So I assume you've put up a complaint? If she does actually have interior Chinese sources, as I expect, she will keep her job. It's all about Zhuhai and 1/11 at this point; if the WS-15 does not show, the WS-15 does not show.

Inst you can't possibly be serious about that right ? One does not need to have any serious credentials or sources when writing such articles, nor does the publishers would actually care much about it. Much of what that can be gleaned from China's military progress is based on hearsay or rumors. And in the nature of such publications, the more salacious and scandalous it sounds the more the article sells. SCMP is geared towards a more Western/English audience, so naturally what sells the best is stories of China tripping up, regardless of whether it's true or not.

 

[Blitzo]

So I assume you've put up a complaint? If she does actually have interior Chinese sources, as I expect, she will keep her job. It's all about Zhuhai and 1/11 at this point; if the WS-15 does not show, the WS-15 does not show.

Let's not set our standards too low.

The idea of WS-15 appearing on a J-20 in a limited testing capacity is not outside the bounds of possibility in the near future, though I would consider it a pleasant surprise. I would even accept the possibility that it may appear at Zhuhai in some capacity.

However the article severely overstretches by suggesting that WS-15 would be ready for widespread installation aboard J-20s by the end of this year.

 

[Figaro]

So I assume you've put up a complaint? If she does actually have interior Chinese sources, as I expect, she will keep her job. It's all about Zhuhai and 1/11 at this point; if the WS-15 does not show, the WS-15 does not show.

This is an excerpt from one of Minne Chan's 2017 stories ... as quoted from an anonymous source.

A source close to the PLA said the J-20s were all equipped with home-made WS-15 engines, but because the engine had not entered mass production, only a few J-20s were available for service.

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She can keep her job because the sources are "anonymous" and thus no one except her can vet them. The fact that she keeps contradicting herself with every new article basically destroys her credibility in the Chinese military watcher community.

 

[Inst]

@Blitzo:

I agree here; the only way the WS-15 could be ready for widespread deployment is if there's been secret testing that we've not spotted. This is unlikely, and moreover, it's unlikely given that we have other sources claiming that a J-20A with WS-10C is about to be inducted.

I think it is reasonable to give a 40% probability of the WS-15 showing up at Zhuhai.

 

[Inst]

There is one last, and somewhat unfortunate, possibility.

Names are of the utmost importance when it comes to thinking and doing. We hear all these reports about a WS-15 being tested, and we assume it's the Emei / Everest engine. However, what if the WS-15 being tested is actually the WS-10X; i.e, the WS-15 is an intermediate / stopgap WS-10C, except that its designation is now the WS-15?

That is an extremely problematic possibility, in that it throws all known intel work out of whack. Once again, wait and see; if we get a 147 kN WS-15 it's possible we're seeing WS-10X in different colors.

 

[Deino]

....

I think it is reasonable to give a 40% probability of the WS-15 showing up at Zhuhai.

Even as much as I would hope that, it is IMO a highly unlikely event, first since IMO such variant still not exists and even if, it is unlikely that they would show it. Remember, even if we know the WS-10 tested on J-10s since years, it was not shown to the public.

At best I hope to get some hints on the WS-15 via "background talk".

 

[Deino]

There is one last, and somewhat unfortunate, possibility.

Names are of the utmost importance when it comes to thinking and doing. We hear all these reports about a WS-15 being tested, and we assume it's the Emei / Everest engine. However, what if the WS-15 being tested is actually the WS-10X; i.e, the WS-15 is an intermediate / stopgap WS-10C, except that its designation is now the WS-15?

That is an extremely problematic possibility, in that it throws all known intel work out of whack. Once again, wait and see; if we get a 147 kN WS-15 it's possible we're seeing WS-10X in different colors.

Why again spinning an even less likely theory? IMO it is still not ready, these reports are wrong and even if there might be a possibility that thw WS-15 is close to being tested on a J-20 for the first time, that makes all other reports from 2016 & 2017 concerning "already in operational use", "in widespread servise" or "testflown at the secret testbase in Inner Mongolia" not likely and SCMP reliable source.

 

[by78]

Via LKJ86
Avic disclosure according to Icloo
It is a half year report by AVIC Aero-engine company in compliance to Shanghai & Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Financial data aside, the key points that interested us is:-

The company is currently producing WS-15, WS-10 and WZ-9, basically covering the needs of almost all aircraft currently in (PLAAF, PLA Aviation & PLAN Aviation) service.

Actually, the document does NOT, I repeat, does NOT state that WS-15 is in production. The relevant sentence merely translates as the following:

AVIC is a mainstay of the Chinese aero-engine industry and a prominent player in the aero-engine market. Major products include WS-15, WS-10, and WJ-9(?), essentially covering all military engine needs.

The use of the Chinese word 产品, or 'product', does not necessarily imply that it's in production. It could be something that's intended for serial production but is still being worked on.

 

[Inst]

Because it's a vernacular theory, not a scientific theory. Science works by postulating hypothesis, and then seeking out evidence to either prove or disprove it. Where I disagree with you and others is that I don't think your "theory" is at the level of a scientific, as opposed to vernacular, theory (theory in science means that it has a preponderance of evidence behind it; the theory of evolution is a theory, but it is a scientific theory), and that it is still at the level of hypothesis.

We await additional evidence.

 

[Inst]

Actually, the document does NOT, I repeat, does NOT state that WS-15 is in production. The relevant sentence merely translates as the following:


The use of the Chinese word 产品, or 'product', does not necessarily imply that it's in production. It could be something that's intended for serial production but is still being worked on.

Once again, ambiguity. The actual fact is change; i.e, if we go look into the preceding compliance report, and the WS-15 does not show it, it indicates that the WS-15 has achieved sufficient maturity to be included on AVIC disclosures. This is not the same as "it's in production", but is reasonably close and a positive sign.