J-10 Thread IV

[banjex]

Then it becomes a question of cost as well as availability of (e.g.) WS-15s and other fancy electronics on the J-20. The whole point is that the J-10 is a relatively cheap mass-producible fighter that would be of immense value in a war of attrition with the US, a war which would more and more heavily favor China as the war drags on, but only if China can reliably outproduce the US. I suspect there could be plenty of limitations on CAC's ability to uptick J-20 production during wartime, but far less barriers for the J-10. At a time when you would want to get as many aircraft into the fight as fast as possible over and over, the J-10 is a far more expedient choice than the J-20, at least as far as this particular production line is concerned.

Pilot training would be the bottle neck in that scenario, not production.

 

[antiterror13]

It's not just per unit cost, of course. It's also a matter of how many can you build over what time with what available resources, which would not be limited to just money.


By China's own admission and timeline, this modernization will not be achieved until 2035. And while the Chinese military is on the path to that, a war may start in the next few years, a point which was actually part of the original discussion: "And it would be bad strategy to shut down production of such a cheap and reliable figher when things could go tits up in the next four years".

While I don't disagree that the end goal of China's military modernization is victory through technology, strength of numbers will not ever disappear from such a calculus, including during a war when supplies dwindle and ease of manufacturing becomes more and more relevant. Nobody is trying to insinuate the human meat waves of the Korean War here, but that doesn't mean it won't be a numbers game, regardless of the technological balance on either side.

I don't think the US under Trump (3.75 yrs to go) would be able to focus on China (let alone at war with China). Ukraine still have some issues and I think will continue at least 2 years. Palestine, Gaza and Hamas will be still big headache for Trump. Iran potentially a disaster for the US if the war happens and Houthi as well. Also the economy potentially a big headache and Trump may need China actually

Even now in 2025, I don't think the US has enough confidence to win the war with China in 1IC and 2IC, in 2030s the confidence will be even lower

 

[Iron Man]

Pilot training would be the bottle neck in that scenario, not production.

I think pilot training would be a problem in that scenario, but not a bottle neck. They would just start sending up greener and greener pilots in that case.

I don't think the US under Trump (3.75 yrs to go) would be able to focus on China (let alone at war with China). Ukraine still have some issues and I think will continue at least 2 years. Palestine, Gaza and Hamas will be still big headache for Trump. Iran potentially a disaster for the US if the war happens and Houthi as well. Also the economy potentially a big headache and Trump may need China actually

Even now in 2025, I don't think the US has enough confidence to win the war with China in 1IC and 2IC, in 2030s the confidence will be even lower

For all these reasons I think there is a decent chance of AR in the 2027/2028 timeline.

 

[lcloo]

I agree, and for the same exact reason. Even low-rate production is better than shutting the entire production line down. It would also be unconscionable IMO if this line is shut down while there are still any 3rd generation fighters in PLAAF service.

If you look at the production history of J7, you got the answer.

 

[lcloo]

And it would be bad strategy to shut down production of such a cheap and reliable figher when things could go tits up in the next four years.

Just look at the J7 production history.

 

[Deino]

As it appears, the J-10AH assigned to the former 4th Naval Air Brigade - and now transferred to the PLAAF, ETC - are still active in their former livery.

(Image via @齐天的孙猴子 from Weibo)

 

[by78]

A J-10S powered by WS-10 turbofan.

 

[SinoAmericanCW]

Do you happen to remember when was the last time we saw new J-10Cs inducted by PLAAF? I at least can't recall any for the past few years.

Didn't the 44th Air Brigade receive J-10Cs in 2024?

 

[Deino]

Also via @齐天的孙猴子 from Weibo an allegedly recently taken image showing a factory-fresh J-10C at CAC.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Also via @齐天的孙猴子 from Weibo an allegedly recently taken image showing a factory-fresh J-10C at CAC.

View attachment 149400

Hmm. Thought they stopped making those?