ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

plawolf

Brigadier
Latest reports that Israeli warplanes conducting raids in the area at the time, also a French frigate was firing missiles, but the French have denied all involvement, and I would expect those missiles to to cruise missiles in any case, as the west pretty much owns the skies, so their ships have no reason to be shooting SAMs.

Pentagon is claiming Syrian AAA downed the plane, but I struggle to see how they could have objectively reached that conclusion.
 

Jura

General
Today at 7:47 AM
10 minutes ago
related speculations:
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later quite interesting statements were made:

"As a result of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli military, 15 Russian servicemen were killed, which is absolutely not in keeping with the spirit of Russian-Israeli partnership," said Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, spokesperson for the Russian military, according to RIA-Novosti.
In a rare acknowledgment of its military activity in the region, Israel expressed "sorrow" for the loss of Russian life ... etc.:
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according to
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it was the Coot with registration #RF-93610, serial #115-04
:


wondering if Syrian and Russian Comrades have any IFF while operating Soviet weaponry
 
Last edited:

Jura

General
Today at 8:28 PM
Today at 7:47 AM
later quite interesting statements were made:

"As a result of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli military, 15 Russian servicemen were killed, which is absolutely not in keeping with the spirit of Russian-Israeli partnership," said Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, spokesperson for the Russian military, according to RIA-Novosti.
In a rare acknowledgment of its military activity in the region, Israel expressed "sorrow" for the loss of Russian life ... etc.:
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according to
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it was the Coot with registration #RF-93610, serial #115-04
:


wondering if Syrian and Russian Comrades have any IFF while operating Soviet weaponry
now
US Gave No Support to Israeli Airstrikes That Led to Russian Aircraft Shootdown
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The U.S. military had no involvement in the planning or execution of Israeli airstrikes that led to the
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by Syrian regime anti-air batteries, resulting in the deaths of all 15 aboard, a U.S. coalition spokesman said Tuesday.

U.S. intelligence and the military also had no oversight of the Israeli attacks or forewarning from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) of the intention to hit targets in northwestern Syria, said U.S.
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Col. Sean Ryan, a spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq and Syria.

"At the coalition level, we had no warning," he said in a video conference to the Pentagon from Baghdad. "[The Israelis] operate independently; they don't operate within our coalition system."

Russia initially blamed Israeli actions for the shootdown by a Syrian missile of the Ilyushin four-prop IL-20 aircraft, which was flying about 22 miles off the Syrian coast. The plane had been on a mission in support of President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

The incident occurred at about 11 p.m. Monday local time as the Il-20 reportedly was returning to Hmeimim, the main Russian air base in Syria, near Latakia.

Russia's Tass news agency said the Il-20 "disappeared during an attack by four Israeli F-16 jets on Syrian facilities in Latakia province."

A Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said Israel had given a warning, but it came less than a minute before the airstrikes -- not enough time for the IL-20 to take evasive action.

The spokesman accused Israeli pilots of "using the Russian airplane as a cover," and putting it "in the line of fire coming from Syrian air defense systems."

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin later appeared to soften Moscow's stance on Israeli culpability.

The IL-20 was shot down due to "a chain of tragic accidental circumstances," he told reporters in Moscow. "An Israeli jet did not shoot down our plane."

In Tel Aviv, Brig. Gen. Ronen Manelis, an IDF spokesman, said, "Israel expresses its regret over the death of the crew members of the Russian plane that was downed tonight due to Syrian anti-aircraft fire," according to a Jerusalem Post report.

"Israel holds the Assad regime, whose military shot down the Russian plane, fully responsible for this incident. Israel also holds Iran and the Hezbollah terror organization accountable for this unfortunate incident," Manelis said.

He said the IDF had struck a Syrian military facility housing weapons that were to be transferred to the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia, which has been fighting alongside Syrian regime forces.

"Syrian anti-aircraft batteries fired indiscriminately and, from what we understand, did not bother to ensure that no Russian planes were in the air," Manelis said, according to the Post report. "The extensive and inaccurate Syrian anti-aircraft missile fire caused the Russian plane to be hit."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later called Putin to express sorrow over the downing of the aircraft and the loss of life, Netanyahu's office said in a statement.

"The prime minister, in the name of the state of Israel, conveyed sorrow over the deaths of the Russian soldiers and said that the responsibility for downing the plane falls on Syria," Netanyahu's office said.

Israel's extensive remarks on the incident are a break with its usual practice of not commenting on strikes against Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon.

In May, Netanyahu met with Putin in Moscow to seek the Russian president's help in getting Iran to stop backing Assad and supplying Hezbollah with weapons.
 

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
Latest reports that Israeli warplanes conducting raids in the area at the time, also a French frigate was firing missiles, but the French have denied all involvement, and I would expect those missiles to to cruise missiles in any case, as the west pretty much owns the skies, so their ships have no reason to be shooting SAMs.

Pentagon is claiming Syrian AAA downed the plane, but I struggle to see how they could have objectively reached that conclusion.
It's possible that the IDF pilot, which the Syrian missile locked onto, was able to maneuver the missile to collide with the IL-20.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
It's possible that the IDF pilot, which the Syrian missile locked onto, was able to maneuver the missile to collide with the IL-20.
Only in a Hollywood movie.
The aircraft were not flying with each other the IL20 was on a totally different spot in thw sky from the attacking F16.
Miles and miles away. The F16 radar may have seen the IL20 but this was not fighters playing tag with SAMS. Also fact is SAM's and missiles don't bank and turn that well and have a limited amount of fuel. If it has been playing magic bullet it never would have passed beyond the shore.

The IDF claim is that at the time of the launch and shoot down there F16s were not just in egress but back in Isreali airspace. Your talking at least 15 minutes.
As yet there is nothing from the Russians to refute this and past claims of Syrian air defence victory pretty much prove that the Syrians when attacked by air take a shot gun approach. Fire everything at anything and if something comes flying down claim victory even if all that falls happens to be the interceptor missiles and spent rounds, Unless it's friendly then blaim someone else.
Which is what seems to have played out. They blamed the Israelis then the French then the Israelis. Finally had to admit it was them yet still Isreal is to blame. Like a child "He made me do it!".
 

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
Only in a Hollywood movie.
The aircraft were not flying with each other the IL20 was on a totally different spot in thw sky from the attacking F16.
Miles and miles away. The F16 radar may have seen the IL20 but this was not fighters playing tag with SAMS. Also fact is SAM's and missiles don't bank and turn that well and have a limited amount of fuel. If it has been playing magic bullet it never would have passed beyond the shore.

The IDF claim is that at the time of the launch and shoot down there F16s were not just in egress but back in Isreali airspace. Your talking at least 15 minutes.
As yet there is nothing from the Russians to refute this and past claims of Syrian air defence victory pretty much prove that the Syrians when attacked by air take a shot gun approach. Fire everything at anything and if something comes flying down claim victory even if all that falls happens to be the interceptor missiles and spent rounds, Unless it's friendly then blaim someone else.
Which is what seems to have played out. They blamed the Israelis then the French then the Israelis. Finally had to admit it was them yet still Isreal is to blame. Like a child "He made me do it!".
IDF claims aside, if SAMs don't bank and turn that well, what's stopping the IDF pilot from leading the missile towards the IL-20? I do believe these missiles have a proximity fuse.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
First why the hell would they want to?
The F16s were stand off and safe well out over the sea and miles away from the IL2.
They had everything they needed to avoid attack.
They fired there weapons and RTB that is there job. To do what you describe would require 1) hanging out in the area burning fuel.
2) ghosting the ol' Coot.

On 1) Fuel is life. And you just finished unloading your bombs. They never were going into Syria they fired over the Med and went home. The missiles with there smaller RCS and stand off ranges needed to enter the kill box. The F16 didn't have a reason to. The Isreali previous Strikes have proven this.

On 2) the IL2 Coot is a turbo prop. It's slow speed demands means burning gas by the fighters and unless you have an idea what it's going to do the whole thing is impractical. The only way this could really work as stated is if the Russians told the Isrealis the flight plan of the Il2 in advance.
And again why bother? The Israeli military has proven again and again they can take pot shots at Syrian targets without entering SAM range. So why bother with a human shield?


I think Putin put it rather softly but in a manor that paints the best picture of what we see. When to Routers he said that :" It looks most likely in this case that it was a chain of tragic chance events, "

Now I suspect he said this diplomatically well thinking more along the lines of " It looks like this was a Syrian Cluster -_-_! Where in a panic a Sam site took on Shoot first ask questions later as rules of engagement. And Assad owes me for this."
 

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
First why the hell would they want to?
It was never the intention of the IDF pilot to take out the IL-20. I see it's more of a survival tactic upon missile lock. The Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated that the Israelis didn't believe the SAA would fire a missile off in that direction [
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]. He continued on to blame the Israelis for this giant mess. Regarding your second point, the Russians and Israelis did have an agreement which Russia has stated that Israel has broken [
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]. In any case, it appears the
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.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
The Minister is spinning a tale to cover how the Russians integrated into the Syrian defences didn't stop the Il2 from being shot down.
And try and cover why there systems have yet to actually stop attacks from outside parties.
The Russians may have expanded the "No flyzone" but this narrative is this is a fairy tail.
Time and time again the IDF have made a monkey of the air defense capacity of the Syrians.
It started with the US British and French strikes where exsorbident success rates were announced by the Russians and Syrians only to in a few hours have the Isrealis go to town and again prove the Syrian air defense a wet paper bag.

This narrative is a attempt at blame shifting. It's to say that the Russian air defense systems and Syrian operators are not at fault rather that the Israelis use unfare tactics.
The Russians can't have there systems look like a joke as they still aim to sell them. The Syrians are in a civil war and any sign of weakness could lead to a shift in the ground. If it looks like the Syrians are trigger happy that could embolden more action from abroad.

The only thing the IDAF did was make strikes. Like using a air rifle to knock down a wasps nest they took pot shots into Syria. The Syrians like angry wasps lashed out stinging anything in range. In this case that happened to be the Russians.
 

gelgoog

Senior Member
Registered Member
What I heard back then was that they merged the radar systems. But the thing is, the S-200 missile batteries quite likely are not linked to the main radar network but rely on their own radar. Also because of the short time to act that the missile defenses have, because the Israelis skim over the border and use long range cruise missiles, giving little time to react, the judgement of the missile battery commanders is impaired. This can be solved with more modern radars and missile battery systems integrated with the Russian network.
 
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