ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Yesterday at 7:39 PM
Aug 1, 2016

... Government retook Al-Hikma tonight ...
... and only now I realized the line of contact then happened to become approximately a straight line (west, and south, to Aleppo) in approximately south-north direction:
cfxKFZ9.jpg

(it's
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)​

(Government tried to push west today ... is what I read in Twitter now)
 
Yesterday at 9:09 PM
... and only now I realized the line of contact then happened to become approximately a straight line (west, and south, to Aleppo) in approximately south-north direction:
cfxKFZ9.jpg

(it's
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)​

...
... and here's the view (basically the same) I found in non-Government Twitter:
aleppcity-10nov16.jpg

(should be "clickable"; it's
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)
let's wait and see what happens next
 
Yesterday at 9:09 PM
...

(Government tried to push west today ... is what I read in Twitter now)
this is interesting (found in the most recent blog by "Cassad"
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):
Cw7CcgVXEAAIbwu.jpg:large

the dotted green line shows the positions before the most recent anti-Government offensive; moments ago I read in pro-Government Twitter that Government forces got into what I believe is marked
Картоннaя фабрика
above (some factory north to the big junction in the map shown in purple (red arrows are pointing towards that junction))
 

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Daesh Areas of Influence – October 2016 Update

In October, Daesh lost an additional 4% of the territory they control in Iraq, while in Syria they lost an additional 2%. This means the group have now lost 56% of the territory they controlled in Iraq in August 2014, and 27% in Syria, as they are continually defeated on the battlefield. Key losses in October include the town of Dabiq in Syria, as well as areas near Ar Ramadi and Hadithah in Iraq.

The map (below) depicts Daesh’s areas of influence, including its net territorial losses—30,000 to 32,000 square kilometres of the territory it had dominated in Iraq and 11,500 to 12,500 square kilometres of the territory it dominated in Syria—since August 2014. Daesh probably has a presence and freedom of movement in much of the unpopulated areas depicted on the map, but we cannot determine its level of influence in these areas. Please note that these estimates are subject to change because of the dynamic nature of the conflict, and do not cover developments ongoing in November.

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FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
My wife and I don't have time to view TV so we do not even have such a machine. This was so the first time I noticed the matter.
The Dutch navy was very proud of its submarines but until 2014 it was assumed that these boats were to be the lasts. The yard where all Dutch submarines were built, and that also invested heavily in pressure vessels for nuclear power plants of which it produced none, has been closed after a lot of financial shenanigans. The Walruses are a quarter of a century old but were modernized less than ten years ago.
The Russian reaction is of course a demonstration of their confidence that they can find and if need be destroy these boats. I would expect the most modern nuclear submarine to be no more difficult to find than a modernized Walrus.

True interesting stuff about subarines operation

An Undersea Game of Cat-and-Mouse Is Afoot off Syria as Air Strikes Loom
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Oct 28, 2016
I scrambled this just to see the scale; the minimal distance between Government positions outside (currently under attack) and inside Aleppo is something like five kilometers (of urban terrain!):
nbUX0.jpg
it seems the outer perimeter was breached in the area I marked, and south to it (close to the large junction, where the southwest most part of Government held Aleppo was)

in my comfortable chair I wait to see who will seize the initiative now

...
... two weeks later, it's Government:
CxBA4-5XUAAsoNN.jpg:large
 
some time ago
Nov 3, 2016
related to the fights west to
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:
Today at 6:59 AM

... and I've read in Twitter recently ISIL was able to mount a counter-strike against Rebels/Turks, but "de Syracuse" says now they're advancing again:
CwWOwTNWgAAyu9C.jpg
and since then Rebels/Turks have been very slowly closing on Al-Bab (I guess they're trying to keep their casualties at minimum ... just look at Mosul, Iraq - the bravado which had been presented to gullible public is ... where now?):
CxDkKI2WgAAeGCG.jpg
(by the way I now read in Twitter the protrusion to the north-east had been already cut, but have no idea if it's true)
 
according the New York Times Donald Trump Likely to End Aid for Rebels Fighting Syrian Government
President-elect Donald J. Trump said Friday that he was likely to abandon the American effort to support “moderate” opposition groups in
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who are battling the government of President
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, saying “we have no idea who these people are.”

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal that dealt largely with economic issues, including his willingness to retain parts of the Affordable Care Act, he repeated a position he took often during his campaign: that the United States should focus on defeating the Islamic State, and find common ground with the Syrians and their Russian backers.

“I’ve had an opposite view of many people regarding Syria,” Mr. Trump told The Journal. “My attitude was you’re fighting Syria, Syria is fighting
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, and you have to get rid of ISIS.
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is now totally aligned with Syria, and now you have
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, which is becoming powerful, because of us, is aligned with Syria.”

His comments suggest that once Mr. Trump begins overseeing both the public support for the opposition groups, and a far larger covert effort run by the
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, he may wind down or abandon the effort. But there are in fact two wars going on simultaneously in Syria.

One is against the Islamic State, in which the United States is supporting 30,000 Syrian-Kurdish and Syrian-Arab fighters, who last weekend announced they were opening a new phase of the battle, beginning to encircle the ISIS capital in Raqqa. There are roughly 300 United States Special Operations forces on the ground assisting these militia.

The second effort is in support of rebels fighting Mr. Assad. The C.I.A. covert program is by far the largest conduit of support, providing antitank missiles to rebels fighting the government. That is the program that Mr. Trump seems most intent on ending. If the United States pursues that line, “We end up fighting Russia, fighting Syria,” Mr. Trump told The Journal.

The argument for ending the support may be bolstered by the fact that, as a matter of survival, those opposition groups have entered into battlefield alliances with the affiliate of
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in Syria, formerly known as Al Nusra. This has had the effect of allowing Mr. Assad and Russia to argue that they are attacking Al Qaeda, and the United States should aid them in that effort. Secretary of State John Kerry acknowledged that argument during his ultimately failed effort to reach a deal for a cease-fire and an ultimate settlement.

Mr. Trump’s the-enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend logic is consistent with what he said during the campaign. “I’m not saying Assad is a good man, ‘cause he’s not,” he told The New York Times in an interview in March, “but our far greater problem is not Assad, it’s ISIS.”

But it also takes a position that will gratify President
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, because it suggests that rather than pressure Russia to end its support of Mr. Assad, a Trump administration will get out of Mr. Putin’s way.

In another hint of a major change in policy, one of Mr. Trump’s primary national security advisers, Lt. General Michael T. Flynn, the retired head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, wrote in The Hill newspaper this week that the United States should extradite Fethullah Gulen who
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has demanded should be sent back from his exile in Pennsylvania. The Turkish government of
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has blamed him for a coup attempt over the summer.

The Justice Department has not yet concluded that there is any convincing evidence that Mr. Gulen should be sent back to almost certain confinement or execution under an extradition treaty with the United States. They see the request as part of Mr. Erdogan’s effort to eliminate all opposition.

Mr. Flynn adopted many of Turkey’s arguments about Mr. Gulen, arguing that “American taxpayers are helping finance Gulen’s 160
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” in the United States, and that it is more important to support Turkey than be “hoodwinked by this masked source of terror and instability nestled comfortably in our own backyard.”
source, dated NOV. 11, 2016:
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ehm
White House: $11.6B More Needed for ISIS Fight, Afghanistan

The request brings the expected 2017 price tag for both wars to $85.3 billion.

The White House told Congress Thursday that it needs an additional $11.6 billion to pay for the campaign against Islamic State militants and the war in Afghanistan.

The request raises the price tag for both wars to $85.3 billion in 2017.

The money “is vitally important for our national security, and I strongly urge Congress to adopt it,” U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in a
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Thursday evening.

Some $5.6 billion would go toward military operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. has been carrying out the bulk of the coalition airstrikes, and has been training and advising Iraqi security forces. Some of the funding would also help support the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.

Carter said the money funds initiatives “that will hasten the defeat” of ISIS.

“Additional resources will help sustain that positive momentum by boosting our support to partner forces and our intelligence efforts,” he said. “In addition to enhancing our effort to defeat ISIL, this plan would fund the President’s decision to adjust our troop levels to better support the Afghan government’s strategy to secure its nation, and would help enhance Afghanistan’s aviation capability.”

Another $5.8 billion would go to the State Department and USAID for “counter-ISIL and counterterrorism objectives, including the efforts to implement the diplomatic engagement, governance, and stabilization components of [the] Administration’s counter-ISIL strategy, strengthen embassy security, and respond to relief and recovery needs, as well as provide additional humanitarian assistance for areas liberated from ISIL and other unforeseen needs.”
source is DefenseOne
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FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Iraq War Map Update: Current Military Situation in Mosul

  • Green: Under the control of Iraqi security forces
  • Red: Clashes ongoing
  • White: Under the control of ISIS
Mosoul.jpg

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