ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

The United States and Russia will try again to stop Syria's civil war and forge a new counterterrorism partnership when their top diplomats meet next week in Geneva, U.S. officials said Thursday.

Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will gather on Aug. 26, with the talks possibly lasting for two days. At the meeting, officials said, the sides will try to secure a cease-fire between Syria's government and rebels and a new U.S.-Russian arrangement to share intelligence and coordinate military to defeat the Islamic State group and al-Qaida.

The diplomacy comes amid fierce fighting in Aleppo, Syria's largest city, and new Russian bombing operations in Syria originating from an Iranian air base.

Russia and Iran have backed Syrian President Bashar Assad's government in its five-year conflict against opposition groups that range from Islamist extremist groups such as the Nusra Front, an al-Qaida spinoff, to forces purporting to support a secular, inclusive country. The U.S. supports what it calls the "moderate" opposition.

Despite sharp differences in their interpretations of the conflict, the former Cold War foes have been weighing a partnership against their mutual enemies: IS and al-Qaida.

As part of the deal, U.S. officials said Russia would have to halt offensives by Assad's government, something it has failed to do over months of diplomatic efforts. They said the U.S. must get rebels to break ranks with Nusra, a task that may be more difficult after its fighters successfully broke Aleppo's siege earlier this month.

The officials weren't authorized to speak publicly on the matter and demanded anonymity. They cautioned that the time and place of Kerry's meeing with Lavrov may yet change.

Syria's civil war has killed as many as a half-million people since 2011. Millions have fled as refugees, contributing to a global migration crisis. IS has seized on the instability to become a worldwide threat.

The Russian military said Thursday it was ready to back a U.N. call for weekly cease-fires in Aleppo, as haunting footage of a young boy's rescue from a bombed-out building shook global media. The U.S. wants a long-term truce that allows not only humanitarian aid into the city, but the possibility for U.N.-brokered peace talks to resume and the start of peace process.

Thursday also marked the fifth anniversary of President Barack Obama's call for Assad to leave power. With Russia protecting Assad's position, the U.S. has backed off from demanding his ouster in any early phase of a political transition.

Last month, Kerry met Russian President Vladimir Putin and Lavrov in Moscow, hoping to finalize the new strategy. After two days of talks, each side spoke vaguely of steps they would take to try to stop the Arab country's relentless bloodshed.

The discussions came shortly after a leaked proposal showed the U.S. offering Russia a broad new military partnership against IS and Nusra. Several conditions would apply, including Russia committing to grounding Syria's bombers and starting a long-sought political transition process.

But the talk of intelligence and targeting sharing, and even joint bombing operations, quickly prompted significant dissent within the Obama administration.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter and National Intelligence Director James Clapper each voiced strong reservations about entering into such an alliance, given the administration's repeated criticism that the Russians have primarily targeted moderate anti-Assad rebels and not IS.

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Jura said:

this has reminded me I owe this Thread one thing, in less than two months:

Dec 16, 2015


EDIT
let's wait, I just dug it up now

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Moscow presses Ankara for access to us airbase

• Hannah Lucinda Smith, Michael Evans
• The Times
• 7:16PM August 19, 2016

Russia is pressing Turkey for access to a key airbase used by the US as it tries to extend its influence in the Middle East.

The American-built Incirlik base, about 65 miles from the Syrian border, is used by Nato and has about 50 US tactical nuclear warheads stored on site. A senior Russian politician said that allowing Russian jets and bombers to use it would be a “logical continuation” of President Erdogan’s efforts to rebuild Turkey’s relations with the Kremlin.

“It just remains to come to an agreement with Erdogan that we get the Nato base Incirlik as [our] primary airbase,” Senator Igor Morozov, a member of the upper house’s committee on international affairs, said. This would allow the Russian air force to subject Islamic State and other jihadist groups to “constant bombing” and bring the war to a quicker conclusion, he said.

“You’ll see, the next base will be Incirlik,” he told Izvestia, a Moscow daily, after the Kremlin revealed this week that its bombers had started using a base in Iran to launch attacks in Syria. “This will be one more victory for Putin.”

Viktor Ozerov, another senator, told the RIA Novosti state news agency: “It’s not certain that Russia needs Incirlik, but such a decision would be seen as a real willingness on Turkey’s part to co-operate with Russia in the war against terrorism in Syria.”

The development will rattle the West and could point to the most fundamental shift in Turkey’s relations with its Nato allies since the start of the Cold War. Incirlik, in Adana province, is used by US warplanes flying sorties against Isis and is home to the Pentagon’s 39th Air Base Wing. It is a crucial part of America’s ability to project its military might across the region. Turkey and Russia have backed opposing sides in Syria since the beginning of the civil war in 2011, with the Kremlin supporting President Assad with troops and air power and Mr Erdogan’s government seeking to bolster both the armed and political opposition. Their reconciliation is part of a wider foreign policy shift in Ankara which suggests that Mr Erdogan is trying to disentangle himself from the conflicts in the Middle East.

Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria, which has largely targeted civilians and anti-Isis rebels, has horrified the international community. Images were posted online yesterday of a traumatised five-year-old boy, bloodied and covered in dust, in a state of shock after an air strike in Aleppo — thought to have been carried out by a Russian jet.

US officials said that if Russia kept to its promise to seek a ceasefire in Syria consideration would be given to engaging in joint missions against Isis in Syria, but it seems unlikely that such co-operation would include missions from Incirlik.

The base was opened in 1954 and has been jointly run by Turkish and US forces ever since. At least 3,000 American troops are stationed there.

Turkey retains the right to exercise restrictions on the US’s use of Incirlik, including the number of aircraft stationed there and the type of missions they are used for. It approved US bombing sorties against Isis in July last year, but only after months of diplomatic wrangling. The US now flies F16 fighter jets, B52 bombers and A10 warthogs from the base.

Relations between Turkey and the US, Nato allies since 1955, have been sorely tested by recent events. The Ankara government is steadfastly opposed to US support for the Syrian-Kurdish militia the YPG, which has close links to the PKK, the group that is fighting a bloody insurgency against Turkish security forces on home soil.

Anti-American sentiment has spread through Turkey since the failed coup last month, with the government blaming a caucus within the military that is loyal to Fethullah Gulen, the Islamist preacher who has lived in Pennsylvania since 1999. The US has shown no sign that it is willing to extradite him to Turkey.

In a series of increasingly bullish speeches to crowds waving anti-US placards, Mr Erdogan has proclaimed that the US needs to choose between Mr Gulen and its relationship with Turkey.

By contrast, Ankara’s troubled relationship with Russia has been warming since June, when Mr Erdogan sent a letter to President Putin asking that he “excuse” him for the shooting down of a Russian fighter jet last November.

Mr Putin was one of the first world leaders to offer his support for Mr Erdogan after the failed coup. The two met in St Petersburg on August 9; two days later, Turkey announced that it had agreed to co-operate with the Russians against Isis in Syria.

Anthony Franks, a security consultant, said that the Incirlik overtures from the Kremlin appeared to be a test for Mr Erdogan. “This looks like Russia dipping its toe in the water to see what Turkey’s reaction might be,” he said.

Neither the US nor Turkey has commented so far on the issue — but the mere suggestion of Russian war planes flying into Incirlik will pile pressure on the US to find alternatives.

The pitfalls of relying on the continued use of Incirlik were revealed in the days after the coup attempt, when Turkey cut the power to the base and imposed a no-fly zone over the area. Power was restored six days later, with the top Turkish general stationed at the base later arrested on suspicion of involvement in the revolt.

The incident has raised fears for the security of the nuclear weapons stored at Incirlik.

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LesAdieux said:

Obama indeed said Syria would be Putin's quagmire, ...

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Jura said:

... and the fights were going on during tonight, between

• YPG/Asayish (that's how I now saw Kurdish forces identified in a pro-Government tweet); it's
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  slash
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  AND
  
• NDF
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  plus the Government Army

in Al-Hasakah, so I tried to look more closely, found:

(should be "clickable"; it's

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)​

and reportedly Kurds shelled the Artillery Base (highlighted below):

(I don't have time right now to draw approximate positions there)

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• "Cassad"
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  (who says actually Iranians and Lebanese fight for the Government there), and
• Kurdish Twitter accounts; reportedly the current situation:
  
  (it's
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  )

siegecrossbow said:

Is this for real? Do you think Russia will allow Chinese support in the form of aerial bombardment or even ground-troop intervention in the future?

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SouthernSky said:

Extradite Fethullah Gulen or else methinks.

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I have some serious reservations about the current position of Turkey amongst Western allies.

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delft said:

OT


As for those nuclear weapons the obvious solution is to remove them ASAP.

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Jura said:

Today at 7:41 AM

first the positions, as of July 15 though, taken from "de Syracuse" map:

fights ongoing, according to

• "Cassad"
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  (who says actually Iranians and Lebanese fight for the Government there), and
• Kurdish Twitter accounts; reportedly the current situation:
  
  (it's
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  )

...

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A U.S.-led coalition sent aircraft into northeastern Syria on Thursday in a "very unusual" move to protect American special operation ground forces from attacks by Syrian government jets, a Pentagon official said on Friday.

Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis told reporters the coalition aircraft reached the area around the city of Hasaka as the two Syrian SU-24s were leaving, and the U.S. special operation forces were in the area where the strikes were taking place. He said the Syrian planes did not respond to efforts by ground forces to contact them.

Davis said he was not aware of any other instances where coalition aircraft had been scrambled to respond to Syrian government bombing.

"This is very unusual, we have not seen the regime take this kind of action against YPG before," Davis said, using an acronym for the Syrian Kurdish fighters.

Additional combat air patrols have been sent to the area in order to protect the ground forces.

On Friday, two Syrian aircraft tried to pass through the airspace around Hasaka, but left without incident when they were met by coalition fighter jets. The coalition fighter jets were F-22 aircraft and came within 1 mile (1.6 km)of the Syrian planes.

On Friday, the Syrian government carried out a second day of airstrikes and artillery bombardment, causing thousands of civilians to evacuate Kurdish areas of the city. Dozens of civilians have been killed over the last 48 hours.

The Russians were contacted through a channel used for air safety, and they made clear the bombing was not being carried out by their jets, Davis said.

The Russians were asked to tell the Syrian government that U.S. aircraft would defend its troops on the ground if they were threatened, Davis said.


"The Syrian regime would be well advised not to interfere with coalition forces or our partners," he said, adding that the United States had the right to defend its troops.

Faysal Itani, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, said it was easy for the Syrian government to avoid bombing large bases, but far more risky to strike areas close to YPG forces being trained by U.S. forces.

"If the regime continues bombing in close proximity to U.S. forces, then simply I think the United States will shoot down the regime aircraft," Itani said.

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Jura said:

...
I put also ISIL on the horizon, as the point is:
If Two Dogs Strive For A Bone,
A Third Runs Away With It

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