ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

because of something else, I recalled
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also the map:
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  • the map with the scale, and Maarat al-Nu'man in middle-bottom:
    XnId6.jpg
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anyway, new Maarat al-Nu'man story (OK new to me, and two stories):
March 29, 2016
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Al-Qaeda affiliate faces unusual backlash from fed-up Syrians
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let's say I've seen enough graphical material to post again about something what's currently going on; the newest "edmap":
Syria_Battle_for_Khanasser_April_16_6AM.png
Government probably didn't prepare the defenses of newly gained areas (which are to the right on my map below), in which equipment was lost (no point in quoting casualties reported by ISIL/Iranian press), and ISIL pushes toward the Hama-Aleppo Road (shown in yellow) probably in three directions which I risked to approximate (based on mostly Twitter sources); the Government-held territory ends somewhere at the left edge of the map (I chose mapquest.com so that scale is visible, but no, I couldn't identify the places to the south, and, surprisingly, the towns to the east of Qualay'ah don't show; all blame on me anyway, especially if those arrows were imaginary ...):
RkjFg.jpg

I'll try to follow what's going on in
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area ...
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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It does look like the perils of having to rely on Rear Echelon militia to guard a weak spot to ensure that you have enough front line troops available for major offensives.

I suspect Syria will now be looking to its biggest foreign allies to provide very strong formations that can hold defensive lines around these otherwise vulnerable fronts, to remove them from contention.

Obviously the risk to the donor nation is that what starts simply as a defensive/Peace Keeping style operation can come under situational pressure to be used in need in an offensive manner.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
I agree with SampanViking, deft and PanAsian that there is a high likeliness of a strategy to lure out terrorists from their strong hold and destroy them in open area. This should be by far the most effective strategy in my opinion.

This strategy is proven by history not long ago in the Chinese civil war from 1946 to 1949 "围点打援,争取在运动中歼灭敌人"/"encircle enemy's strong hold and destroy the enemy's reinforcement on the move". The point is to reduce the enemy's number. This strategy is meant for a time when neither side has a clear numerical superiority, so the focus is to gradually reduce enemy number by attrition so in the near future the strategic balance could be turned. The difference of attritions in Chinese civil war and other major wars (such as Soviet vs. Germany in WWII) is that, the Chinese communist had no industrial base and did not have major population bases (although having vast rural area, but willing to abandon it any time to avoid manpower loss), much weaker than the Soviets, this weakness resembles the Syrian state.

The good news is that this strategy worked very well, the Chinese communist started with around 2 million troops against the government force of 4.6 million in 1946, in 1949 the balance became 4 against 1.5.

I wish to see this strategy works in Syria and we are able to see the turn of the tide sooner.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
It does look like the perils of having to rely on Rear Echelon militia to guard a weak spot to ensure that you have enough front line troops available for major offensives.

I suspect Syria will now be looking to its biggest foreign allies to provide very strong formations that can hold defensive lines around these otherwise vulnerable fronts, to remove them from contention.

Obviously the risk to the donor nation is that what starts simply as a defensive/Peace Keeping style operation can come under situational pressure to be used in need in an offensive manner.
The weakness of the Syrian state is its small reliable manpower base that makes it relying on foreign ground troops. It seems to me that the Sunni population is neither determined/actively against the state by fighting on the rebell side, nor enthusiastically defending the state, but rather passively running around as refugees. This is also why the conflict has lasted so long in my opinion.

I think people make their choices, either by voting or by not doing anything. And not doing anything is a choice of not choosing, very sad.
 
... (I chose mapquest.com so that scale is visible, but no, I couldn't identify the places to the south, and, surprisingly, the towns to the east of Qualay'ah don't show; all blame on me anyway, especially if those arrows were imaginary ...):
RkjFg.jpg

I'll try to follow what's going on in
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area ...
... and I think if since then ISIL had made it to the Hama-Aleppo Road OR Government had regained area to the east from Qualayah (this village now highlighted in the map below), I would've noticed pictures, videos during last like half of an hour when I was searching for the news from down there ... so it seems Government regained initiative in this area and is back somewhere (I of course don't know where exactly) in "Jabal Shubayt" region in the map below, took it up from Khanaser Plain (both Sirdah and Qualayah shown in that map are on a hill LOL I've never been there though):
wXdAu.jpg

soon we should know if this was just some harassing activity by ISIL to exploit the long "contact area", instead of suffering big losses while defending certain area in vain (as they could've done in for example "Rayyan pocket" and
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but they had not, just left instead): in case it was just this harassing activity, they would carry it out without (almost) any operational reserves, and would have to stop after let's say three days anyway
 
So it seems full fighting has resumed between all groups...
counter-example would be
Ultimatum to ISIL to leave Dumayr as Syrian Army, rebels establish truce
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’s (ISIL) presence in the village of Dumayr has come to an end after a recent meeting between the Syrian government forces and rebels in east Damascus.

The factions fighting under ISIL’s flag, Liwaa Al-Sadeek and Liwaa Rajal Al-Malahm, were given an ultimatum on Monday evening: either leave Dumayr or turn-in their weapons to the rebel or government forces.

If the terrorist factions agree to leave Dumayr, they will be given safe passage by the Syrian Red Crescent to the nearest ISIL controlled area.

No further details were reported; however, this should end ISIL’s presence in Dumayr and the nearby Badiyah region of east Damascus.

On Monday, ISIL attempted to recapture the territory they lost to the Syrian Armed Forces over the weekend, but they were unable to make any progress after sustaining heavy casualties.
source, which is pro-Government to the point of being ludicrous:
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-358#post-394642
is:
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(dated April 19, 2016 - 8:04 AM)
 
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