ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)


You can pull the general Webster's definition all you want, Jura. it is a term that is classically, in non-military applications, rooted in a mud hole.

However a military Quagmire is typically associated with a drawn out campaign that is very expensive in men, material, and money, and that one is finding a hard to extracting one's self with.

If Bloomberg said it...then he's wordsmithing and displaying his own bias IMHO..

Fact is, IMHO and based on four decades of watching this stuff, and studying hundreds of years of military conflict, I'd stand by my statement.

Calling Russia's involvement in Syria a quagmire at this point is far, far too premature.
OK Jeff let me finish with this (I'll try to keep it as brief as I can, and while there'll be economy-related points, I believe I don't go off topic):
I look at the following numbers, for now
  1. five thousand Russian troops in Syria (says
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    I believe I could find the link in one of my recent posts within last perhaps five pages here);
  2. 70% of Syria territory under ISIL control (says
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    I believe I could find the link in one of my recent posts within last perhaps five pages here);
  3. two Russians KIA in Syria;
  4. US$ for more than seventy Rubles (tragicomic gazeta.ru article from today, pulling the quotes of Russian Officials:
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    );
  5. oil for about thirty-five US$ per barrel (it's slightly more, and it depends on Brent/WTI etc., but that's not the point)
and I'll check them after one year since the beginning of Russian intervention (September 30, right?), so that in the beginning of October, 2016 I will be able to say I was wrong when
So I'm sorry to disagree with you, Jeff, but I also think the intervention in Syria becomes Russian "quagmire".
 
attempting an update
Yesterday at 9:40 AM
...
it appears the most fierce fights have been taking place around/in ... "Banes" ... on the map below ...
(of course, this info can be obsolete as I write!)
 

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Tuesday, December 15, 2015 in the late morning, the French forces conducted an air strike against a Daech position located in the Al Qaim in Iraq, on the border between Iraq and Syria.

Located in the Al Qaim in the west of the country, near the border with Syria, the site consisted of buildings, some hard, for both headquarters and training center logistics depot.

Engaged since the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, the raid was composed of a dozen fighters (Rafale and Mirage 2000), equipped with bombs and missiles SCALP (long range cruise autonomous system). The use of these missiles is a first in the context of the opération chammal.

Alongside these planned strikes Chammal the strength of the fighters continued their mission to support ground troops fighting Iraqi Daech against the elements.

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A little superfluous to use such missiles !

 

Brumby

Major
US Not Seeking 'Regime Change' in Syria, John Kerry Says After Meeting With Russian President

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Following lengthy talks with Russian President
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in Moscow today, U.S. Secretary of State
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has said the United States is not seeking regime change in
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and that the U.S. and Russia see the conflict "fundamentally very similarly."

“The United States and its partners are not seeking so-called regime change as it is known in Syria,” Kerry said in a news conference inside the Kremlin, before immediately adding that the U.S. continues to believe that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has no possibility of remaining the country’s leader in the future. However, Kerry said the talks didn’t focus on “what can or can’t be done immediately about Assad” but rather on establishing a political process where Syrians will be able to choose their own leader.

The statement appeared to be the most explicit sign yet that the U.S. is softening its policy towards Assad and marked a significant rhetorical shift for the U.S. towards Russia’s policy in Syria, which previously American officials have said was almost fundamentally at odds with their own.
Finally a shift from an untenable "Assad must go line". It just needed the Russians to push it along. Hopefully they can now concentrate on a common enemy, ISIS.
 

Jeff Head

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
OK Jeff let me finish with this (I'll try to keep it as brief as I can, and while there'll be economy-related points, I believe I don't go off topic):
I look at the following numbers, for now
  1. five thousand Russian troops in Syria (says
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
    I believe I could find the link in one of my recent posts within last perhaps five pages here);
  2. 70% of Syria territory under ISIL control (says
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
    I believe I could find the link in one of my recent posts within last perhaps five pages here);
  3. two Russians KIA in Syria;
  4. US$ for more than seventy Rubles (tragicomic gazeta.ru article from today, pulling the quotes of Russian Officials:
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
    );
  5. oil for about thirty-five US$ per barrel (it's slightly more, and it depends on Brent/WTI etc., but that's not the point)
and I'll check them after one year since the beginning of Russian intervention (September 30, right?), so that in the beginning of October, 2016 I will be able to say I was wrong when
That's fine, Jura. You are certainly entitled to your opinion on the matter and you have defended it with a good deal of data indicating why you feel that way.

I respect that.

but I still do not agree with characterizing it as a quagmire.

I would certainly not call Russia's involvement in Syria a quagmire at this point in the least.

For me, they would need to be involved a couple of more years, with little or no results, with lots of losses, and with no easy way to extract themselves.
 
what gives?!
U.S. military says pulls 12 fighter jets from base in Turkey
The U.S. military said on Wednesday it was pulling 12 F-15 Eagles and Strike Eagle fighter jets from Incirlik air base in Turkey after deploying them there last month.

A spokesman at the U.S. military's European Command told Reuters the aircraft had completed a temporary deployment.
source:
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(at first I noticed at gazeta.ru:
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but couldn't locate the link to Reuters)
 

Brumby

Major
what gives?!
U.S. military says pulls 12 fighter jets from base in Turkey

source:
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(at first I noticed at gazeta.ru:
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but couldn't locate the link to Reuters)
There are more details offered.
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The U.S. has begun withdrawing the dozen
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-- six
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and six F-15C interceptors -- which arrived last month at the Incirlik airbase in southeastern Turkey to fly missions against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, U.S. European Command announced Wednesday.

In a brief statement, the command said the aircraft would be returning to the 48th Fighter Wing at the Royal Air Force base at Lakenheath in Britain. There was no immediate word on whether the aircraft would be replaced.

Six F-15Cs arrived at Incirlik on Nov. 6 to assist in training and participate in missions with Turkish
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guarding Turkish airspace, the command said. A week later, six F-15Es landed at Incirlik as part of Operation Inherent Resolve to fly strike missions in Syria and Iraq against ISIS.

The single-seat F-15C is more of an air superiority weapons system, while the two-seat F-15E is billed as a dual-role fighter capable of precision strike missions as well as air-to-air interdiction.

Twelve
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attack aircraft sent to Turkey last month have been used to devastating effect against ISIS oil facilities and delivery trucks. They will remain at Incirlik, the command said.
I presume there is some sort of understanding reached with the Russians that air coverage for the A-10's might not be necessary anymore. The alternate view is that, the Turks are not happy with the agreement reached with the Russians over Assad and the F-15's got booted out.
 

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