ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

here's the story by Bloomberg:
Obama's Islamic State War Czar Stepping Down
President Barack Obama is about to lose the man he hand-picked to build the war effort against the Islamic State. Retired General John Allen will be stepping down as envoy to the global coalition this fall, and the White House is searching for a replacement to be the face of America’s flailing effort to destroy the jihadist group in Syria and Iraq.

Allen will leave government service in the coming weeks, four administration officials told us. State Department officials said they were not ready to officially announce Allen’s departure, but he has notified his superiors he will give up his job in early November, after serving just over one year. His chief of staff, Karin von Hippel, will also depart, to join a British think tank.

The timing of Allen’s departure could not be worse for the Obama administration. The incoming Marine Corps Commandant, Lieutenant General Robert Neller,
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that the war is at a “stalemate.” Last week, the head of the U.S. Central Command, General Lloyd Austin,
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that of the 54 Syrian rebels trained and equipped by the U.S. military, only “4 or 5” were still in the fight. And now the Pentagon is investigating
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by dozens of intelligence analysts that their reporting on the progress in the war effort was altered before being given to top officials.

U.S. officials familiar with Allen's decision say he has been frustrated with White House micromanagement of the war and its failure to provide adequate resources to the fight. He unsuccessfully tried to convince the administration to allow U.S. tactical air control teams to deploy on the ground to help pick targets for air strikes in Iraq. Allen also tried several times to convince the White House to agree to Turkish demands for a civilian protection zone in Syria, to no avail. Nonetheless, administration officials stress that Allen's decision to leave his post was motivated mainly by the health of his wife,
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from an auto-immune disorder.

"John Allen has put his heart and soul into trying to make the president's strategy work,” said Derek Harvey, a former senior U.S. military intelligence official who worked with Allen at U.S. Central Command. “I have sympathy for the hard task he was given because I do not believe the president's team was fully on board and he was never empowered to bring the leadership necessary to achieve the mission."

While Allen was working inside the administration, the White House could rely on him to push back against many others in the U.S. national security establishment who argued that Obama was not fully committed to his strategy to degrade and defeat the Islamic State. Earlier this month, he told ABC News that there had been many successes in the war, and he focused on setbacks for the terror group in Tikrit, Iraq, and Kobane, Syria.

“Where we were a year ago today, I wasn't sure how it was going to unfold," Allen said. "It was not clear to me even that Iraq would survive this. In the intervening months, we've seen remarkable progress in many respects.”

Allen was successful in negotiating the deal whereby Turkey is now allowing the U.S. to use the Incirlik Air Base for air operations in Syria. But the broader campaign against the Islamic State has been stymied. The Turks recently launched an offensive not against the jihadists but against Kurdish separatists, who have been important allies to the U.S. on the ground. As Islamic State forces have expanded and consolidated territory in Syria, they have managed to keep control of Iraq's second-largest city, Mosul, and expand into Ramadi, the heart of the 2007-08 Sunni-led rebellion against al-Qaeda in Iraq, the predecessor organization to the Islamic State.

"Some elements of the right strategy are in place, but several are under-resourced while others are missing," David Petraeus, the former general and Central Intelligence Agency director, testified Tuesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee. "We are not where we should be at this point."

When Allen was named to his post in September 2014, he initially planned on staying for six months. He agreed to stay on for another six at the request of Secretary of State John Kerry earlier this year. In the short term, his responsibilities are expected to be passed on to his deputy, Ambassador Brett McGurk. But the White House eventually wants to find a big-name replacement for Allen, who as a four-star Marine Corps general led the international force in Afghanistan from 2011 to 2013.

Finding someone to take the job won’t be easy. Just before he became Obama’s lead official in the fight against the Islamic State, Allen
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in which he called the group a “clear and present danger to the U.S.” and said it “must be destroyed” quickly, using capabilities and power only the U.S. can bring to bear. Just over one year later, the president has yet to commit to a real plan to “degrade and destroy” the Islamic State, as he has repeatedly said is his goal. Until that changes, Allen’s replacement will face the same roadblocks that he did, and the war against the Islamic State will continue to flounder.
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and what DefenseNews.com had to say:
Report: Obama 'ISIS Czar' Stepping Down
The Obama administration's point man for dealing with the Islamic State group, often known as ISIS or ISIL, plans to step down from his position, according to a new report.

John Allen, a retired four-star Marine Corps general who has served as special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL since September 2014, plans to leave that job before the end of the year, according to a report by Bloomberg View.

Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said he could not confirm the report and referred questions to the State Department, but praised the retired general's work.

"Gen. Allen is someone obviously very familiar to the folks here at the Department of Defense, and he's done a great job pushing the ball forward in terms of the diplomatic effort in the fight against ISIL and building up a coalition," Cook said. "We hold Gen. Allen in high regard for his work and appreciate the efforts he's made in the overall effort to bolster the coalition against ISIL."

Allen's departure comes at a delicate time for the anti-ISIS fight, with major questions about whether the Obama administration's strategy is a viable one.

Allen's replacement is unclear, although it is likely at least some of his responsibilities will fall to his deputy, Ambassador Brett McGurk.

Interestingly, David Petraeus, the retired general who remains a popular figure in Congress despite a public fall from grace following revelations of an affair and a guilty plea of mishandling classified information, spent the morning discussing ISIS on the Hill.

While the question of who replaces Allen is a major one, another question lingers: Will this trigger a series of moves to replace the leaders of the anti-ISIS effort?

Today's news comes less than a week after a hearing in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee where Gen. Lloyd Austin, chief of US Central Command, acknowledged major failures of the Syrian "train and equip" mission that the Obama administration has made the center of its anti-ISIS efforts.

In particular, the statement by Austin that there are only "four to five" US trained Syrian fighters operating at the moment was called "a joke" and "a failure" by members of the committee.

After Austin's comments, and the Senate reaction to them, Cook had to defend the general in a press conference the next day.

In response to multiple questions about whether Defense Secretary Ash Carter would consider replacing Austin, Cook said Carter has "full confidence" in the general.
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
I understand that the undercarriages of Russian tactical aircraft are still more robust than those of Western aircraft so setting up forward operating bases costs less effort and time

Indeed, many fighters, like the Mig29 and Su27 (probably all derivatives as well) also have integrated intake filters to allow the fighters to operate from rough fields with reduced risk of the engines ingesting FODs.
 

delft

Brigadier
My Dutch radio station BNR (
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) gives the news that Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel has said that she wants discussions with president Assad about the refugee crisis. I think this means that she implicitly offers to end sponsorship of mercenary "rebels" by Western European countries, i.e. France and UK. I have the impression that this sponsorship has been much reduced or even ended but a pronouncement would still have value.
 

janjak desalin

Junior Member
Syrian army uses new Russian jets to strike Islamic State - monitor
Reuters: Thu Sep 24, 2015 10:38am EDT

Syrian government forces used newly arrived Russian warplanes to bombard Islamic State insurgents in Aleppo province in northern Syria, a group monitoring the civil war said on Thursday, in an attempt to break a siege on a nearby air base.
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delft

Brigadier
Zero Hedge pointed to this Syrian article:
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Chinese Military Personnel Expected to Arrive in Syria
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By
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on September 23, 2015

The recent arrival of the Russian Marines and Air Force to the Syrian port-city of Tartous has generated a significant amount of interest around the world, as the possibility of Russia’s direct military intervention becomes the focal point of the war on ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham).

Should the Russians begin military operations in Syria, what role with the U.S. led “Anti-ISIS Coalition” play in combatting the terrorist group? Will they coordinate with one another? Will they avoid one another?

It seems both sides have their own strategy to combat ISIS, but the U.S. has had far more experience fighting the terrorist group, despite their minimal success in obstructing their growth and advance in Syria and Iraq.

Russia seems poised to take a similar approach to the U.S. led Coalition; however, they are not seeking the assistance of the neighboring Arab countries to combat the terrorist group.

Instead, the Russians appear to have a contingency that involves another world power that was absent from the U.S. led Anti-ISIS Coalition: China.

On Tuesday morning, a Chinese naval vessel reportedly traveled through Egypt’s Suez Canal to enter the Mediterranean Sea; its destination was not confirmed.

However, according to a senior officer in the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) that is stationed inside the Syrian coastal city of Latakia, Chinese military personnel and aerial assets are scheduled to arrive in the coming weeks (6 weeks) to the port-city of Tartous – he could not provide anymore detail.

Russia has made it abundantly clear that they are taking an active role in this conflict, but the news of the Chinese military to Syria provides more insight into their contingency.

It appears that Russia is not going to combat ISIS alone: the plan is similar to the U.S.’ idea of a “coalition” of air forces, but far more involved on the ground; this is something the U.S. and their allies have avoided since the inception of their war against ISIS.

Despite all of this, Russia and the U.S. appear to be at it again; however, this is no space or arms race, they are actively flexing their muscles through their proxies (U.S.: rebels and Russia: Syrian Army).
I would be surprised if it happens, but things are moving, surprising things are more likely to happen now than at other times.

My expectation is more in the direction of Russian radar aircraft being stationed in Iran to help hunt for IS targets.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Syrian army uses new Russian jets to strike Islamic State - monitor
Reuters: Thu Sep 24, 2015 10:38am EDT

Syrian government forces used newly arrived Russian warplanes to bombard Islamic State insurgents in Aleppo province in northern Syria, a group monitoring the civil war said on Thursday, in an attempt to break a siege on a nearby air base.
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Very interesting.

The Russian jets arrived only "recently" in Syria but were being flown by Syrian pilots, said the Observatory, which tracks Syria's conflict via a network of sources on the ground.

So Syrian pilots are actually flying the newly arrived Russian jets, with Russian advisors. This of course implies that either:

1) These are jets that the Syrians are already familiar with and have had in their inventory.

- or -

2) The Syrian pilots have been trained on newer Russian jets.

I would imagine it is the first...but the Russians could have trained them on the other jets too.

The Syrians have had Mig-29s and SU-24s for some time, so getting the Syrian pilots into those should be straight forward...but I do not believe they have had SU-25s.

Putin (IMHO) is playing this very smart in having the Syrians actually conduct the attacks with new Russian jets that he is providing in numbers. Hard to naysay that when they are being used to help attack and eliminate ISIS.

I posited months ago here on SD that one of the best things that could happen would be if the US and Russia would set aside their differences here and helped defeat and eliminate ISIS.

Now it is happening...but not because the current US admin is willing.

Not being political one way or the other here...but the current US admin is missing a huge opportunity here in my estimation, but (as they were in the fiasco in Egypt) they seem determined to not have a coherent, successful strategy in this case.

More's the pity.
 
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janjak desalin

Junior Member
[...] I posited months ago here on SD that one of the best things that could happen would be if the US and Russia would set aside their differences here and helped defeat and illuminate ISIS.[...]
I'm surmising that you intended to write eliminate?
The dynamic potentials are very interesting, indeed. Most interesting, to me, is whether Kurdish forces, those that have been most effective in combating ISIL, will defer to geopolitical convention, limiting themselves to cooperating with only one side, or will they [wisely] be willing to leverage the resources that both sides can offer in order to gain advantage over ISIL, the consensus [mostly] threat.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I'm surmising that you intended to write eliminate?

The dynamic potentials are very interesting, indeed. Most interesting, to me, is whether Kurdish forces, those that have been most effective in combating ISIL, will defer to geopolitical convention, limiting themselves to cooperating with only one side, or will they [wisely] be willing to leverage the resources that both sides can offer in order to gain advantage over ISIL, the consensus [mostly] threat.
Yes indeed...eliminate. I will go back and fix that.

On my keyboard the "U" and "I" are right next to one another and I clearly fat fingered that, and then the "context" speller took care of the rest in putting in the wrong word.

As to the Kurds...they are pretty wise and shrewd, and they have been burned before. I expect they will wisely work to eliminate ISIS in their own best interests...it's what I would do.
 
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