Is Intelligence the Key to efficient conflict resolution ?

Information : Any data collected that haven't been treated

Intelligence : Information that have been analysed, verified and made available in the intelligence cycle.


Intelligence has become the most important sector of defense and international relations. Professor Robert Jervis has described in his 1976 book Perception and Misperception in International Politics that the cause of war is due to misperceptions of other's intentions, overrating of one own capabilities, the believe of of one's own action are for the good and underrating of his opponent's strength. Of course, there's also some other important theories about the causes of war by other well-know political scientist such as James Fearson and Geoffrey Blainey, but I have came to the conclusion that Jervis theory was the most global one and was able to explain every conflit. The key world is INFORMATION.

This being said, intelligence is now taking one of the most important role because her goal is to know and understand. I have working experience in law enforcement and criminal intelligence. I have seen the efficiency of changing from reactive-community-policing to intelligence-led policing. It's not only about what kind of crimes a particular types of criminal will do, but also when, how, why and where. And the best of all, it gave the abilities able to understand criminals, to see pattern and by transmitting the useful information to every beat cop on the street, to make crime fighting effective.

The Brazilian Peacekeepers in Haiti during the MINUSTAH in 2006-2007 have used intelligence-led peacekeeping. Its sucess was fabulous. Prompting even the UN to add a intelligence component in her joint structure.

Following the evolution of warfare, where war between nations are diminishing but civil wars are going up in number, where most military intervention are likely to be peacekeeping and peacebuilding. With that known trend, knowing also that most military use the case study of the successful peacebuilding in Malaysia as model. Intelligence should then become the main weapon against war, and to help win war. But the real question stay : Is Intelligence the Key to efficient conflict resolution ? Or it's only some unjustified hype ??

You can derive at differing intelligence with the same basic information, it depends on the mindset.
Intelligence based operations are in my opinion a buzzword for the old OODA loop idea with improved data collection. Like every OODA loop there's no need to run faster if you can hack it.
The faster an OODA-loop runs, the less new information will be inserted and the less analyses can be conducted, making the change of status and derived action increasingly predictable parameters. Predictability allows you to jump ahead in the cycle and win despit having a slower OODA yourself.
A suitable option are extensive information and mindset campaigns, again focusing on predictability, by creating a mispresentation for outsiders. Language barriers are very convenient filters to enable such tricks, like the traditional lack of Arab speakers in the Western intelligence community.
The Brazilian success is more due to the novelity and unpreparedness, but intelligence outside the usual OODA loops will gain an increasing role in OODA-loop hacking and protection, requiring more networking of frontline forces with scientists.