Iranian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Gloire_bb said:

US can cripple their economy, and Ayatollahs aren't super popular in the first place. Iran already dropped massively in economic terms(and unlike DPRK, they had abd have a lot to lose).
If Iran will get nukes - Arab states from the other side of the gulf will as well, so benefit will also be spoiled.

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can you explain a bit more in depth about what they have to lose in comparison to the dprk?
im not sure neighboring nukes is really an issue -- india vs pakistan is the big outstanding example. and why would iran be so worried about saudi nukes when israeli nukes represent the clear and present strategic asymmetry?

burritocannon said:

can you explain a bit more in depth about what they have to lose in comparison to the dprk?
im not sure neighboring nukes is really an issue -- india vs pakistan is the big outstanding example. and why would iran be so worried about saudi nukes when israeli nukes represent a strategic asymmetry already in existence?

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Economy. Iran was doing reasonably ok before sanctions.
It is not doing ok ever since - compare it's economy, say, to Turkiye. Collapse it - and heads will fly. Heads of it's leadership.
In Iran, high profile treasons are almost monthly occurance - shall the people of Iran decide that it's enough, replacement for current power structure will come naturally.
And US can very easily make this happen. In a way, Iranian leadership is less concerned about military threat than this.

in DPRK whole elites understand very well,that should the Kim family collapse, none of them will keep neither their status, nor their wealth, and quite probably not even their lives.
Still, we should remember that even in DPRK 2017 Trump sanctions effectively collapsed their attempt at China -inspired reforms (2012-2017).
Iran is far, far more vulnerable. My gut feeling is that they will go for nuclear weapons only if they will be under a determined US attempt to military collapse Iran.

siegecrossbow said:

It is possible that upper leadership is completely infiltrated by cucks at this point.

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That's what it looks like, i haven't looked at this closely but apparently a lot of the mullahs and their cronies have interests in the west, be it relatives there, or money, properties etc. So personal gains/interests trump national security, or more accurate in this case national survival.

One can look at DPRK's defence achievements to extrapolate the potential of the much larger, richer and resource abundant Iran. They do have some highly competent defence systems to date, good drones and UAVs, good SAMs, good shorter range BMs and various CMs etc., but they are utterly neglecting the IRIAF, and of course they meekly don't touch ICBMs let alone nukes, not to mention some cringeworthy examples of incompetence/ignorance/corruption (like that Qaher thing or the twin tailed F-5s).

But the most they lack is a goddamn spine. I fear for Iran to be honest, the west likes to gang up on the weak, and the way they metaphorically slapped, kicked and spat Iran (numerous assassinations, sabotage etc.) in the face in the last years with only a weak reaction (i'm not sure even a single US or israeli soldier was killed in any of the much hyped iranian "retaliations") does not bode well.

Also, again compared to DPRK, you can see DPRK's enthusiastic support for Russia and active participation in the war in the Ukraine (so basically, a big middle finger to the west, apart from the whole DPRK nukes thing), while Iran, apart from giving the admittedly highly useful Gerans and possibly some short range BMs, little else seems to transpire. They should have sent not only a crapload of SRBMs, cruise missiles and other useful systems like their anti-drone SAMs, but also a contingent of troops, as a gesture if nothing else. But instead they cave in to western demands and i think they were mumbling something about "Ukraine territorial integrity". No wonder the russians are not giving them the Su-35s (the russians DO have their own issues as well in dealing with the west/zionists, but that's another discussion).

Gloire_bb said:

Economy. Iran was doing reasonably ok before sanctions.
It is not doing ok ever since - compare it's economy, say, to Turkiye. Collapse it - and heads will fly. Heads of it's leadership.
In Iran, high profile treasons are almost monthly occurance - shall the people of Iran decide that it's enough, replacement for current power structure will come naturally.
And US can very easily make this happen. In a way, Iranian leadership is less concerned about military threat than this.

in DPRK whole elites understand very well,that should the Kim family collapse, none of them will keep neither their status, nor their wealth, and quite probably not even their lives.
Still, we should remember that even in DPRK 2017 Trump sanctions effectively collapsed their attempt at China -inspired reforms (2012-2017).
Iran is far, far more vulnerable. My gut feeling is that they will go for nuclear weapons only if they will be under a determined US attempt to military collapse Iran.

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why are defections prevalent? is it because of the poor economy? at least in my belief, most people dont really care as much about ideology as they like to say they do -- what they care about is whether it continues to maintain, if not improve their quality of life. so my question is, do you think the nuclear weapon would not work as a hedge against destabilization efforts?
are iranian problems more deep and architectural to the nation? theoretically, iran should have much cultural capital to work with. has iran failed to construct a functional national identity? iranians have suffered injustice in the hands of the west with examples such as the violation of their neutrality during the anglo soviet invasion of 1942, and the subsequent reduction to puppet state status. has that not been leveraged correctly to forge national resolve? is there a failure coupling islam to act as a cultural hedge to act in concert and not in conflict with the national-cultural apparatus?

Gloire_bb said:

My gut feeling is that they will go for nuclear weapons only if they will be under a determined US attempt to military collapse Iran.

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this would be fatal though, there will be no time for iran to develop a nuclear weapon and its attendant delivery mechanisms by the time military action is taken.