India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan


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KIENCHIN

Junior Member
Registered Member
Wrong, I'm actually a secret agent from Mars, on a secret quest to take over earth and my first step is to mess up SDF to influence public opinion for China to invade India, after that I will call upon my reinforcement on Venus to drop bombs on Brazil so that Japan will invade Canada.

But damn.... all of my secret plans are being exposed by KIENCHIN. Thats it guys, you got me.
You seem to have an anger management problem, my post was to sound you off to n what Yodello is up to and you have to make it personal. Well my friend thank you for accolade in exposing there is an alien among us and by the way how is the weather in Mars.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
It is possible the Indian incursion was the result of the local Indian Commander taking initiative, without running it up the chain first, as sanblvd mentioned. It is a theory going around Indian forums at the moment.

But the Indian Government and Media have dug in and too much time has passed to play this card now in any believable way. They could still use it as a means to try and save face in a unilateral withdrawal, but it would raise a lot of eyebrows since this scenario has not been remotely close to the position and commentary coming out of Delhi.

This does seem more likely to be an opportunity India seized as means of responding to the perceived challenge it faces, economically and geopolitically, with the OBOR program and China's continued strong GDP growth.

India presents itself as coming in at the behest of tiny Bhutan, who is defenseless and facing an aggressive China trying to land-grab via development of a road. Changing facts on the ground; this plays well internationally in the context of past island building in the SCS, particularly with Western powers.

Delhi knows China has publicly valued its peaceful boarder with India and that China has also said it will never again suffer a loss of territory and sovereignty. So China is put into a position of either resorting to force to recover and hold its side of the boarder vis-a-vis Bhutan, or cede the ground.

If China uses force, India would likely use the action as pretext to economically damage China through sanctions. India would certainly attempt to leverage the US, Japan and others in Europe to deal a blow. The OBOR venture would probably no longer be viable.
Beyond this, I doubt India would put up much of a fight. I think they would instead play the victim for economic gain, rather than fight back in any meaningful way or expand the conflict along the greater boarder, expecting that China will also probably be conservative and keep hostilities isolated to the specific Doklam area.

Were China to do nothing over the long term, India and others would use this to damage Chinese prestige and resolve, both internally among the citizenry and abroad geopolitically. That in addition to the physical loss of territory and whatever strategic value it holds.

China right now seems to be making its case internationally and legally, to mitigate the damage economically and geopolitically, if it does resort to force. It is being methodical and putting forward the image that it is not rushing to war and is giving India the time and opportunity to pull back from perceived Chinese territory, which is a bilateral matter between China & Bhutan. As Kashmir is for India & Pakistan. This seems to me the right approach.

If it looks like India intends to stay for the long haul, my suggestion for China would be to set aside some classic tactical wisdom and inject a degree of PR into the strategy:

Prep secretly for a rapid deployment and then publicly announce the day before, that you will be sending in troops - refer to them as Chinese Citizenry - tomorrow to deport armed, uninvited Indian Forces, from Chinese land. Wish them well on their travels through Bhutan, which they also trespassed, before illegally crossing into China, and request they not commit such aggression again.

The front line should be composed of a mass of unarmed Chinese Forces in riot gear, backed up by well armed PLA and fire support, and multiple cameras should be there to document any Indian resistance or God forbid, gunfire...

Honestly though, I can't help but think how reminiscent this Chinese response is to the infamous 'Forward Policy' of India under Nehru in the 60's. If you study the Indian probing of the boarder then, and the Chinese warnings leading up to the 1962 War, it is eerily similar.

I think you are giving India's leaders far too much credit to suggest they concocted this whole flashpoint just to force China to give them a spanking so they can play the victim card.

The suggested economic costs would simply not materialise because India is far too insignificant a market and economy to be able to cause China any meaningful economic pain.

The prospects of the US, Europe or others doing serious damage to their own economies just to punish China for responding to a clearly illegal move by Indian is also a massive stretch to say the least.

The eerily similar messages to 62 you are hearing from Beijing are China playing their PR game.

China will not adopt an American style PR blitz because that has never been their style.

China has been laying the PR and diplomatic ground work for a direct military response from day one in such a way that they could take the military option tomorrow if it suited them and no one could claim with a straight face China didn't give Indian fair warning before hand.

The OBOR initiative has always been a Chinese project with neither funding or support required from any foreign country other than those it goes through.

Since the likes of the US, Japan and EU have never and are not contributing partners to the project, their opposition will have no real impact on the project.

India will have to covertly directly attack OBOR to cause it any real issues. While India would certainly have the capability to do that; would they have the will to take the risk of discovery and face the harsh consequences of them?

Those are all things Chinese strategists would be gaming out to find the optimal Chinese response.

The Chinese government doesn't like to make knee-jerk reactions, and prefer to take their time with important decisions to make sure they have considered and devised counters for all the eventualities they can before arriving at their final decision.

If only the Indian government did the same we wouldn't be faced with this mess.
 

Zool

Junior Member
I think you are giving India's leaders far too much credit to suggest they concocted this whole flashpoint just to force China to give them a spanking so they can play the victim card.

Perhaps. But I don't think so. Rather, I think you are underestimating the current low in the relationship between India-China, the increased geopolitical and economic gains China stands to make (one could argue at India's expense) if its regional programs continue on course, and the planning that goes on in a countries security establishment with regard to its rivals.

I did not say India 'concocted' this flashpoint. China is after all building said road in the Doklam zone adjacent a non-finalized boarder with Bhutan. But India has, in my opinion, seized this as an opportunity, as I laid out previous. Its a smart move and not at all beyond the scope of Indian establishment.

The suggested economic costs would simply not materialise because India is far too insignificant a market and economy to be able to cause China any meaningful economic pain.

The prospects of the US, Europe or others doing serious damage to their own economies just to punish China for responding to a clearly illegal move by Indian is also a massive stretch to say the least.

India is a sizeable and growing market and consumer base, full stop. Additionally China has a substantial trade surplus with India (somewhere on the order of $45 Billion USD), meaning conflict and economic fallout between the two would inflict greater damage on China than on India.

To call a 'massive stretch', the prospects of the US, Japan and parts of Europe joining a sanctions regime against China resulting from a China initiated firefight to clear Indian Forces from Doklam, seems naive to me. No offense, but this is the world we live in. And I will explain:

Sanctions resulting from conflict or issues of national security are exempt from WTO challenges and rulings. It is a way for countries, particularly the NATO Block, to cause economic damage to rivals, targeting select industries where they can block market competion as a result, while leaving alone other sectors that they still need to transact with. Hence the term... Targeted Sanctions.

Russia/Crimea is a perfect example, where Russian LNG was left alone to protect European energy concerns. The same could and likely would be done towards China, helping boost domestic sectors for those countries initiating the targeted sanctions. It is an extremely logical possible objective for India in the current scenario, versus a full out war, even if limited to the boarder regions.

The eerily similar messages to 62 you are hearing from Beijing are China playing their PR game.

China will not adopt an American style PR blitz because that has never been their style.

China has been laying the PR and diplomatic ground work for a direct military response from day one in such a way that they could take the military option tomorrow if it suited them and no one could claim with a straight face China didn't give Indian fair warning before hand.

However you wish to term it, it is historically the same pattern of warnings from China, using similar rhetoric, which lead up to the 1962 conflict, with India ignoring them all the way. Those who don't learn from history and all that...

I don't know who's 'style' you would call it. As I said, it was my suggestion for a way to deal with the standoff in an even handed manner that can be presented internationally to avoid gunfire and the possible Indian objective of sanctions and further China containment groupings. There are plenty of options to be sure. I've gamed out my view of Indian intentions and the likely results from Chinese action & inaction as I see it. What is your view and suggested strategy?

The OBOR initiative has always been a Chinese project with neither funding or support required from any foreign country other than those it goes through.

Since the likes of the US, Japan and EU have never and are not contributing partners to the project, their opposition will have no real impact on the project.

India will have to covertly directly attack OBOR to cause it any real issues. While India would certainly have the capability to do that; would they have the will to take the risk of discovery and face the harsh consequences of them?

Those are all things Chinese strategists would be gaming out to find the optimal Chinese response.

OBOR by definition of the program requires partner nations and their support. Both for transit of goods along the routes in their territory and purchase of those goods from China in the first place. You don't think an international grouping targeting trade with China, as a result of conflict pinned on China, would scuttle OBOR?

As I said, in my view, India does not need to directly attack OBOR covertly or otherwise. The current Doklam standoff is India's opening shot. How China handles it dictates a hit or miss.

The Chinese government doesn't like to make knee-jerk reactions, and prefer to take their time with important decisions to make sure they have considered and devised counters for all the eventualities they can before arriving at their final decision.

Agreed, as I said in my post above, China is providing plenty of time and opportunity to India, so it does not come off as an aggressor. You and I both know under the right circumstances, even with India entering Chinese territory, China could and would be painted as the aggressor with all the ramifications that brings.

If only the Indian government did the same we wouldn't be faced with this mess.

They are taking a shot at a rival who they see as taking away regional influence, trade and blocking them on a myriad of issues like NSG and supporting arch nemesis Pakistan. As much as I see them in the wrong here (entering Chinese territory with armed forces on behalf of a third party) I can still see the logic and value from their perspective.

Back to my earlier request though, please share your view of India's motives, objectives, and what you think China should do and the possible results from those actions/inactions. I don't work for GOI so I don't know for sure, and it makes for interesting discussion to game it out.
 

sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
Are you typing this post in a Sauna? You seems to be very heated up.

What? That's all you got? I reply to you base on what you typed, I challenge you to present the evidence to support what you said, I guess when such evidence does not exist, personal attack is next.
 

sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now I see where your heat come from, and it seems it gets your nerve.

No, I am not seriously comparing you to him at this moment, but I am suspicious of that because I do not know you. I would not have suspect you if you did not demonstrate the over average enthusiastic patriotism. So there is the possibility.

I can only become serious about it (true or false) when in time I have read enough posts of yours on different subjects. So far I only have ONE subject/event, too early for me to say. You are welcome to prove me wrong in suspecting.

Right... there are 7 billion people on planet earth, but yeah I might just be that 1 single idiot lawmaker from HK. If you are that lucky then maybe time to buy a lottery.
 
Which begs a long-awaited question: have China's leaders fully assessed the long-term ramifications and risks of a Sino-Indian conflict? Have any members here, for that matter, done so with the utmost impartiality to India's military capabilities and future Sino-Indian bilateral relations?

I am sure China's leaders are doing their due diligence but around here there has been an unfortunate proliferation of Chinese fanboy chest thumping to the point of embrace of China threat propaganda, perhaps some earnest some cynical, while analysis of India's military capabilities are sorely lacking.
 
Here is an interesting article about disposition of forces lining up against each other . He think that if any conflagration broke out. It should be in September when the weather is clear
It a long article by Indian blogger in Indian defense review. It is a long article Here is some excerpt
It also give Indian troop disposition. China has better infrastructure of road, railway, warehouse, communication etc. In a long protracted war it is logistic that is the deciding factor. He also said China has been training for fighting in winter condition. Interesting
Duel In The Himalayas: How India And China Square Off
By
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July 26, 2017

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Though Hendrik 2000 only quoted parts of this writeup analyzing Chinese forces it is just as interesting to read the other parts analyzing Indian forces.
 

ougoah

Colonel
Registered Member
I hope Chinese people and leaders remember this and work on long term projects to further split up India by supporting, financing, and arming separatist movements within India. They should also involve themselves with bilateral matters between India and Pakistan, just like India is doing here with Bhutan and China. China can increase support for Pakistan and their claims in Kashmir. See how the Indians react to that. A country of lynch mobs should not be trusted to act with civility and class. The online reactions to this matter is hugely supportive of India without knowing the bare facts thanks to the PR and support from Indian netizens. No other country has officially stated anything as of yet despite overall global disapproval of China's actions in SCS. Everyone is watching carefully and the silence shows that the leadership around the world do not necessary think India's actions here are justified or defensible.

China is more than happy to wait it out and not fire any shots which I hope they understand is the appropriate line of action. Let everyone watch this and let the Indians remain as trespassers, officially declaring it so. China should just keep officially whinging. It will not hurt their image in the minds of people who matter. Those people already understand how easily it would be for China to win a small or large scale military conflict with India. Sun Tzu supposedly encourage one to act weak when strong. What better opportunity to do so and make China seem weak in the minds of all the idiots around the world who don't amount to much themselves. What use is respect from these parasites? Meanwhile, China works at financing separatists in India and assisting Nepal and Pakistan in their efforts against India. The leaders of these people obviously have shown themselves to be an enemy of China or slaves to less visible powers.
 

ILikeChina

Junior Member
Registered Member
How China can defend against India's brahmos ? At Indians forum they think, India is going to use these missiles to destroy chinese logistics and so on.
 

bluewater2012

Junior Member
It doesn't really help China image an bit when Western medias kept on selectively repeating India own narrative that it's intervenening on the behalf of Bhutan request for more than an month already, unless China PR campaign can somehow change the narrative in which she is currently doing by stating the facts on her own website. An silly suggestion I heard today and I really hope China and the PLA don't really take this approach.


The suggestion is that in the coming months near the end of the year, the winter solace will bring big snowstorms to the area, with India lacking logistic support, combine with heavy snowfall and severe coldness weather in the area, Mother Nature would help force back the Indian personal without PLA boots on the ground. This way there would be no war and avoid any losses of face on both side.
 
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