India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan

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It does not appear to be. I have seen extremely limited buildup of forces on the Indian side. India is playing a mind game if you ask me. It's almost like the Modi admin. is letting the indian troops there playing role of the sacrificial lamb because you just know if a few armored division descended upon a tiny garrison it doesn't matter who is right, wrong or the legalities surrounding it.

The world press will automatically side with the Indians as they play the victim narrative 24/7 about the massacre of their forces by the big evil red.

Actually that only proves that who is right, wrong, and the legalities surrounding it do matter, just that everyone is expected to paint a subjective picture to serve their own agendas. This is why China needs to paint and present their own picture as much and as well as others.
 

weig2000

Captain
From Ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar:

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August 10, 2017 2:22 PM (UTC+8)

The Xinhua news agency and China Daily newspaper, two authoritative platforms of Chinese policies, held out warnings this week over the military standoff with India near the Sikkim border.

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starkly wrote that the “window for a peaceful solution is closing. The countdown to a clash between the two forces has begun….”
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said China’s “restraint has limits and with every day that passes the tether shortens.”

Should these warning be taken seriously? India stubbornly ignored similar warnings 55 years ago in a border war it resoundingly lost and the rest is history.

A war between India and China is improbable since neither side wants it. But below that threshold is a vast space where miscalculations can occur. Indians and Chinese are patriotic people, driven by nationalistic leaderships, and “territorial sovereignty” is a highly emotive issue. What’s alarming is that both governments have successfully rallied domestic opinion.

In China, perhaps, this wasn’t particularly difficult. But in India where a hundred flowers normally bloom, opinion is polarizing at an exceptional rate. It seems all Indians are rising in anger over Facebook posts supporting China’s position. But how could there be a contrarian opinion?

This holds dangers because hubris is a self-devouring monster. The plain truth is that India’s post-Cold War foreign policy calculus will be severely put to test for the first time if a conflict with China ensues. No country has backed India in its seven-week standoff with China. Indians all along fancied that they were leagues ahead of Chinese in “soft power” – yoga, Gandhi, snake charmers, etc. Apparently, that is not so.

It is particularly galling that the United States has not taken any posture favoring India. India’s post-Cold War strategic discourse is heavily laden with the blithe assumption that the US regards India as a “counterweight” to China.
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, a high-flying opinion maker in the English-speaking Delhi circuit, said last week:

“All things that follow now will have a lot to do with what happens in the South China Sea. The US has sent out enough signals. If there is war, it will be a US-China war, with India on the US side, in the South China Sea and in the Himalayas. This trio (India, China and the US) is a very combustible mixture right now.… Ultimately, you have to understand that India cannot stand up to China without American help and support. America cannot stand up to China without Indian help. That is the symmetry in this relationship.”

The sheer naiveté in the above passage sums up India’s misfortune. The Indians refuse to see the geopolitical realities. It doesn’t occur to them that US President Donald Trump will fight wars only if America’s interests are directly threatened. Why should he order the Pentagon to send the marines to the Himalayas or to dispatch a carrier battle group to hunt down Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean?

The one thing emerging out of the meeting in Manila last Friday between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is that the two top diplomats did not waste time on the South China Sea or the Indian Ocean.

Tillerson told the media that North Korea was the main topic in his discussions and whatever extra “bit of reflection on the relationship” with China that took place was devoted to the four high-level dialogues between the two countries last April at the summit at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. That meeting, he said, is “really advancing our two countries’ understandings of the nature of this relationship … and how we should strive to strengthen this relationship so that it benefits the world in terms of maintaining a secure world absent of conflict.”

Interestingly, the White House released a
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on Saturday thanking China for its cooperation in securing the passage of a resolution in the United Nations Security Council on increased sanctions against North Korea. Trump is expected to make a state visit to China in November and Wang disclosed that preparations have begun.

Indian analysts simply do not get the point that the US-China relationship is in an altogether different league. Simply put, the single most crucial template of India’s strategy against China turns out to be delusional – that the US will confront China on India’s behalf.

Equally, Indian strategists never expected that post-Soviet Russia would bounce back on to the world stage. Through the past quarter-century, successive Indian governments have pursued a policy of benign neglect of relations with Russia, which are today in a state of atrophy. On the other hand, Russia-China relations are today at their highest point in decades.

Sadly, India’s “soft power” took a lethal blow during the past three-year period of the Hindu-nationalist government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is so not only in liberal Western opinion but also in the Muslim world. The violence against Muslims, the erosion in India’s secularist foundations, the mass upheaval in Kashmir have all received attention internationally. It is also useful to remember that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation represents 54 member countries of the United Nations.

Suffice to say, all these factors will come into play if a war ensues between India and China. India is not a match for China militarily, and in soft power too China may already have an advantage. By cocooning themselves in a fantasyland, Indians are too full of themselves in their refusal to be judged by international opinion – leave alone Chinese and its smaller South Asian neighbors’ opinions.
 

vesicles

Colonel
To be honest, I have been confused from the beginning about the true motives of the Indians. It makes no sense that they would risk open war with China over a road. I am familiar with their official narrative about the chicken neck. However, China has been upgrading their strategic assets along the Sino-Indian border for a long time. The Indians have lost their strategic advantage along the border a long long time. Even if they could stopp the construction, it won't change a single thing one bit on the grand scheme of things. That's a lot of risk for a very limited and small tactical advantage.

I am not convinced that simply stopping the construction is their ultimate goal.

When asked, Indian officials simply said that they aimed to occupy the camp until winter comes. That also makes no sense. Is this some kind of amateur protest? They simply want to "occupy a Chinese plateau" for the heck of it?

So why?
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Actually that only proves that who is right, wrong, and the legalities surrounding it do matter, just that everyone is expected to paint a subjective picture to serve their own agendas. This is why China needs to paint and present their own picture as much and as well as others.

Yes you are right, but AFAIK China is not doing a very good job marketing themselves and painting their own picture.

They have an uphill battle because even before this crisis their reputation through western lens is not one of rainbows and unicorns.

Regardless of whether it's true or not everything from pollution to rude tourists to SCS to tainted food etc China's rep is not exactly examplary.

India I believe is trying to use this to their advantage and play that narrative if things really to do south.... (pun intended).

I mean think about it.. assuming China is another country, any country, I think pretty much most of the civilize world would be coming down on India now instead of being silent so far on this situation.
 

vesicles

Colonel
It does not appear to be. I have seen extremely limited buildup of forces on the Indian side. India is playing a mind game if you ask me. It's almost like the Modi admin. is letting the indian troops there playing role of the sacrificial lamb because you just know if a few armored division descended upon a tiny garrison it doesn't matter who is right, wrong or the legalities surrounding it.

The world press will automatically side with the Indians as they play the victim narrative 24/7 about the massacre of their forces by the big evil red.

I agree. If anything goes wrong, public opinion will side with the weak. Everyone remember FBI in Waco? FBI held the legal and moral high ground until the fire broke out. Then everything went south for the FBI.

The same is also true for the Chinese. The best case scenario would be for the Chinese to detain Indian troops without firing a single shot and without injury and casualties. Fortunately, the Chinese don't have to deal with women and children, unlike the FBI in Waco... The western media is sitting around and waiting for the Chinese to make a mistake.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
To be honest, I have been confused from the beginning about the true motives of the Indians. It makes no sense that they would risk open war with China over a road. I am familiar with their official narrative about the chicken neck. However, China has been upgrading their strategic assets along the Sino-Indian border for a long time. The Indians have lost their strategic advantage along the border a long long time. Even if they could stopp the construction, it won't change a single thing one bit on the grand scheme of things. That's a lot of risk for a very limited and small tactical advantage.

I am not convinced that simply stopping the construction is their ultimate goal.

When asked, Indian officials simply said that they aimed to occupy the camp until winter comes. That also makes no sense. Is this some kind of amateur protest? They simply want to "occupy a Chinese plateau" for the heck of it?

So why?

I believe Indian try to give China the middle finger and dare them to act. India for a long time has huge ambition to lead Asia but has no hard power of economic or military to back it up. Look it from their perspective
Chinese economy is surging, all kind of initiatives are launched to bind the central asia, south east asia to her with investment, infra structure built up, trade agreement etc.

Even in South Asia that is by god right according to Indian is their domain. Sri Lanka with the Hambatota port , Even Nepal due to short sightness of Indian policy now give China the opening opportunity to woe her , Bangladesh bought all kind of military hardware from China . Not to mention Pakistan.

So what else can India compete against China ?. For some time the idea of faking higher growth boosted their ego But with the demonetizing and confused and complicated GST
Their economy is back to Hindu growth.

So it back to square one of raw politic stood up to big bad China will win India it place in the sunshine of western adulation and self respect. And rally her people with this little adventure

I rather have successful and confident India than brooding and victimized Indian but nobody can help it but India himself She should focus her attention to make live better for her peoples instead of adventure to stick it to China

Which exactly what Nehru another megalomaniac did in 1962 with disastrous result
Here is wise word from ambassador Bhadrakumar

A war in the Himalayas would expose India’s soft power
By
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AUGUST 10, 2017 2:22 PM (UTC+8)
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The Xinhua news agency and China Daily newspaper, two authoritative platforms of Chinese policies, held out warnings this week over the military standoff with India near the Sikkim border.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
starkly wrote that the “window for a peaceful solution is closing. The countdown to a clash between the two forces has begun….”
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said China’s “restraint has limits and with every day that passes the tether shortens.”

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Should these warning be taken seriously? India stubbornly ignored similar warnings 55 years ago in a border war it resoundingly lost and the rest is history.

A war between India and China is improbable since neither side wants it. But below that threshold is a vast space where miscalculations can occur. Indians and Chinese are patriotic people, driven by nationalistic leaderships, and “territorial sovereignty” is a highly emotive issue. What’s alarming is that both governments have successfully rallied domestic opinion.

In China, perhaps, this wasn’t particularly difficult. But in India where a hundred flowers normally bloom, opinion is polarizing at an exceptional rate. It seems all Indians are rising in anger over Facebook posts supporting China’s position. But how could there be a contrarian opinion?

This holds dangers because hubris is a self-devouring monster. The plain truth is that India’s post-Cold War foreign policy calculus will be severely put to test for the first time if a conflict with China ensues. No country has backed India in its seven-week standoff with China. Indians all along fancied that they were leagues ahead of Chinese in “soft power” – yoga, Gandhi, snake charmers, etc. Apparently, that is not so.

It is particularly galling that the United States has not taken any posture favoring India. India’s post-Cold War strategic discourse is heavily laden with the blithe assumption that the US regards India as a “counterweight” to China.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, a high-flying opinion maker in the English-speaking Delhi circuit, said last week:

“All things that follow now will have a lot to do with what happens in the South China Sea. The US has sent out enough signals. If there is war, it will be a US-China war, with India on the US side, in the South China Sea and in the Himalayas. This trio (India, China and the US) is a very combustible mixture right now.… Ultimately, you have to understand that India cannot stand up to China without American help and support. America cannot stand up to China without Indian help. That is the symmetry in this relationship.”

The sheer naiveté in the above passage sums up India’s misfortune. The Indians refuse to see the geopolitical realities. It doesn’t occur to them that US President Donald Trump will fight wars only if America’s interests are directly threatened. Why should he order the Pentagon to send the marines to the Himalayas or to dispatch a carrier battle group to hunt down Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean?

The one thing emerging out of the meeting in Manila last Friday between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is that the two top diplomats did not waste time on the South China Sea or the Indian Ocean.

Tillerson told the media that North Korea was the main topic in his discussions and whatever extra “bit of reflection on the relationship” with China that took place was devoted to the four high-level dialogues between the two countries last April at the summit at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. That meeting, he said, is “really advancing our two countries’ understandings of the nature of this relationship … and how we should strive to strengthen this relationship so that it benefits the world in terms of maintaining a secure world absent of conflict.”

Interestingly, the White House released a
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on Saturday thanking China for its cooperation in securing the passage of a resolution in the United Nations Security Council on increased sanctions against North Korea. Trump is expected to make a state visit to China in November and Wang disclosed that preparations have begun.

Indian analysts simply do not get the point that the US-China relationship is in an altogether different league. Simply put, the single most crucial template of India’s strategy against China turns out to be delusional – that the US will confront China on India’s behalf.

Equally, Indian strategists never expected that post-Soviet Russia would bounce back on to the world stage. Through the past quarter-century, successive Indian governments have pursued a policy of benign neglect of relations with Russia, which are today in a state of atrophy. On the other hand, Russia-China relations are today at their highest point in decades.

Sadly, India’s “soft power” took a lethal blow during the past three-year period of the Hindu-nationalist government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is so not only in liberal Western opinion but also in the Muslim world. The violence against Muslims, the erosion in India’s secularist foundations, the mass upheaval in Kashmir have all received attention internationally. It is also useful to remember that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation represents 54 member countries of the United Nations.

Suffice to say, all these factors will come into play if a war ensues between India and China. India is not a match for China militarily, and in soft power too China may already have an advantage. By cocooning themselves in a fantasyland, Indians are too full of themselves in their refusal to be judged by international opinion – leave alone Chinese and its smaller South Asian neighbors’ opinions.
 
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vesicles

Colonel
If this is simply an attempt to stick it to China, I have to say that I am very disappointed.

This would be another case of India's shortsightedness. I admire ambitions and I respect India's drive to be a leader in Asia. However, they have chosen the wrong way to do it. Focus on the fundamentals. Be patient. That means infrastructures. That means economy. That means lifting your people out of poverty. That means lettting others have the spotlight for now.

If India is truly simply risking an open war with China just trying to grab some spotlight, then Indian politicians are sadly leagues away from other mature politicians in the world. They are still in the pee wee league.
 
Yes you are right, but AFAIK China is not doing a very good job marketing themselves and painting their own picture.

They have an uphill battle because even before this crisis their reputation through western lens is not one of rainbows and unicorns.

Regardless of whether it's true or not everything from pollution to rude tourists to SCS to tainted food etc China's rep is not exactly examplary.

India I believe is trying to use this to their advantage and play that narrative if things really to do south.... (pun intended).

I mean think about it.. assuming China is another country, any country, I think pretty much most of the civilize world would be coming down on India now instead of being silent so far on this situation.

Everything you said is true enough and deserves pointing out but...

I agree. If anything goes wrong, public opinion will side with the weak. Everyone remember FBI in Waco? FBI held the legal and moral high ground until the fire broke out. Then everything went south for the FBI.

The same is also true for the Chinese. The best case scenario would be for the Chinese to detain Indian troops without firing a single shot and without injury and casualties. Fortunately, the Chinese don't have to deal with women and children, unlike the FBI in Waco... The western media is sitting around and waiting for the Chinese to make a mistake.

Once again true enough but...

China shouldn't be dissuaded from or persuaded to pursue particular actions or options primarily because others have demonstrated deliberate prejudiced defamation against China as they are most likely to continue behaving the same way regardless of what China does. It does mean that China should directly counter such defamation and account for it essentially as an environmental factor in its deliberations.
 
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troops on Thu orders evacuation of Nathang village, near site of two-month standoff between
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and
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armies
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if confirmed, I guess the village would be "Gnathang" in the map from Tuesday at 6:03 PM
... I figured the tactical situation on the other side was something like this (I posted the designations of the three Indian Brigades, X, previously here, won't bother with looking for that post):
s6BnC.jpg
I read Indians sent to that area unspecified elements of a Corpse consisting of three Mountain Divisions and an Artillery Brigade ... EDIT yeah anyone could google
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so let's wait and see
 
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...
According to Chinese military spokes person Bhutan acknowledge Doklam is chinese territory

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Beijing: In a stunning – but unsubstantiated – claim, a senior Chinese official said today (August 8) that Bhutan has acknowledged that the Doklam area where the Indian and Chinese troops are engaged in a stand-off does not belong to it.

China’s top diplomat on the boundary issue, Wang Wenli, told a visiting Indian media delegation that Bhutan has conveyed to Beijing through the diplomatic channels that the area of the stand-off is not its territory.

...
... and according to
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Bhutan rejects Beijing's claim that Doklam belongs to China


Updated: Aug 10, 2017, 05:18 PM IST

he Government of
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on Thursday refuted Chinese foreign ministry claims about Thimpu telling Beijing that the trilateral border stand-off area in
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in the Sikkim sector is not Bhutan's territory.+

A top Chinese diplomat
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had claimed that Bhutan had conveyed to Beijing through diplomatic channels that the area of the standoff is not its territory.

Wang, who is the deputy director general of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs in China's foreign ministry, reportedly conveyed this information to a visiting Indian media delegation on Wednesday.

She, however, did not provide any evidence to back her claim, which has been strongly denied by Bhutan.

Official sources in the Bhutanese Government told ANI over phone, "Our position on the border issue of Doklam is very clear. Please refer to our statement which has been published on the web site of Bhutan's foreign ministry on June 29, 2017."

Reacting to the developments in Doklam, Bhutan had on June 29 issued a press release+ in which it clearly stated that the construction of the road inside Bhutanese territory is a direct violation of the agreements and affects the process of demarcating the boundary between the two countries.

In the press release, Bhutan said that the
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started constructing a motorable road from Dokola in the Doklam area towards the Bhutan Army camp at Zompelri on June 16, 2017.

It further said that the boundary talks between Bhutan and China were under way and the two countries had written agreements of 1988 and 1998 stating that they agree to maintain peace and tranquility in their border areas pending a final settlement on the boundary question. The two countries have also agreed to maintain status quo on the boundary as before March 1959 and refrain from taking unilateral action, or use of force, to change the status quo of the boundary.

Bhutan has hoped that the status quo in the Doklam area would be maintained by China as before 16 June 2017.

The Chinese diplomat, while acknowledging that Bhutan had intially protested about Beijing's violation in the Doklam area, was quoted as saying, "After the incident, the Bhutanese made it very clear to us that the place where the trespassing happened is not Bhutan's territory."

She was further quoted as saying that "Bhutanese find it very strange that the Indian border troops are on the Chinese soil," and implied that her views have been gleaned from Bhutanese state media and legal blogs which have "more convincing information".

However, Bhutan has denied all these claims.

India has also cited the Bhutanese foreign ministry as emphasizing that "the construction of the road inside Bhutanese territory is a direct violation of the 1988 and 1998 agreements between Bhutan and China and affects the process of demarcating the boundary between these two countries."

India has conveyed to China that the road construction would represent a significant change of status quo with serious security implications for New Delhi.

India has maintained both sides should first pull back their troops for any talks to take place.

Bhutan has no direct diplomatic relations with China+ and maintains contacts with Beijing through its diplomatic mission in New Delhi.

Bhutan and China have held 24 rounds of talks to resolve boundary dispute, while India and China have completed 19 rounds of talks.
 
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