How do you solve a problem like Somalia?

Again, I'm bringing up this thread since there's action in southern somalia, little noticed really it seems.

In the summer, Al Shabaab pulled out of Mogadishu over alleged splits in the leadership about tactical decissions. In October, they were pretty much driven out of the city completely by AU forces & were resorting to hit and run assaults. Al Shabaab also presided over the worst part of the famine happening in Somalia in their controlled regions.
Kenya launched an assault into Al Shabaab held southern Somalia in Oct to prevent further kidnappings on it's territory. In Nov Ethiopia followed mounting their own campaign in the region. And they aren't really that disliked by the locals as they were in their last 2007 campaign wich partly helped in AS's rise.
Lately there has also been reports about strikes on AS positions by helicopter or cruise missiles, presumably US / French / maybe UK forces, to kill leading figures in the organisation with links to Al Kaida.

I wonder if right now an opportunity presents itself to synergize forces in an attempt to seriously weaken AS.
Kenyan forces are making slow, but steady progress towards the port city / AS logistics hub Kismaayio, and are also closing in on the Badheere stronghold, wich isn't so far from the TFG / AU forces on the other side. Ethiopia also keeps the pressure up, forcing AS to disperse forces.
Most importantly, it's african nations taking the lead in trying to solve this. Even though every faction is still following their own aim mainly.
Logistical & ISR support would, however, still be very helpfull and appreciated I suppose.

It would seem to be in everyones interest. If the region becomes quiet and somewhat secure, allowing development to take place, focus could then shift to the anti piracy mission.



Kenyan troops 'kill 60 al-Shabab fighters' in Somalia
7 January 2012 Last updated at 14:55 GMT

The Kenyan army says it has killed 60 Somali al-Shabab militia fighters in air strikes and is determined to "break their spine completely". ... (more at the link)

Scratch said:

I wonder if right now an opportunity presents itself to synergize forces in an attempt to seriously weaken AS.
Kenyan forces are making slow, but steady progress towards the port city / AS logistics hub Kismaayio, and are also closing in on the Badheere stronghold, wich isn't so far from the TFG / AU forces on the other side. Ethiopia also keeps the pressure up, forcing AS to disperse forces.
Most importantly, it's african nations taking the lead in trying to solve this. Even though every faction is still following their own aim mainly.

Click to expand...

I don't see how foreign forces making progress in Somalia is supposed to help stabilize that nation.

Somalia, and indeed much of Africa today, is comparable to the Warring States era of China. I believe that the constant political and military foreign interventions have disrupted the natural cycle of a unifying force from emerging. We almost saw that some years ago with the rise of the Islamic Court in Somalia, but Ethiopian intervention cut that short.

Historically, there is only one way to resolve such a quagmire of differing tribe loyalties and blood feuds: merciless and brutal slaughter. That is how Qin Shihuang united China: he forcibly standardized the written language, burned all other books and buried alive all scholars who held differing opinions. It destroyed vast amounts of culture from the different warring states, but it also forged a single identity that persists today.

Well, your points have value. However, with admittedly little knowledge of the state of affairs around China at that repsective time, I believe that what ever happens today in Somalia has a greater influence on security and other interests in the region. Especially since I think it's a strategicly valuable point.
The piracy issue has a huge impact on security & wealth in almost a global context and the endangerment of economicly important tourism on the kenyan border is a thing of national interest to Kenya, I'd guess.
Plus, the fact that international terror figures do, to a certain extent, under pressure in central asia, move to the arabian peninsula and east Africa has a global context as well.

The ethiopean campaign, as it was undertaken, wasn't really something to foster long term stability there. And in the end it helped empower the AS movement. But then again, there's no knowing if, or if not, the courts would in the long term have gone international with their connections like AS is doing now. And that would have been a security challange one way or the other.

The solution to all of this lies on somalian land.
So I think there's sense in at least steering that "national streamlining process" in a direction favourable to international security interests.
With all the clutter going on, I think it would actually make sense to grade up the status of Puntland & Somaliland, wich have reached some degree of stability without too much foreign attention.
In the end then, one would of course have to put the then dominant power in a position to built some roads, schools & hospitals to gain some legitimacy with the population. From there, they may or may not find their way. But at least focus is inwards.

Scratch said:

Well, your points have value. However, with admittedly little knowledge of the state of affairs around China at that repsective time, I believe that what ever happens today in Somalia has a greater influence on security and other interests in the region. Especially since I think it's a strategicly valuable point.

Click to expand...

That's exactly my point. Foreign interests are interested in their own welfare, not that of Somalia. I have no doubt that the Islamic Courts would have been an improvement in the then and current state of Somalia. However, Ethiopia as well as Western powers deemed it a threat, and worked to remove the courts, reverting Mogadishu to its state of lawlessness.

There is no way Somalia can achieve stability when so many powerful and conflicting foreign interests are focusing their attentions on it. On a greater scale, the African Continent is suffering from the same problem.