How China Could Replace all US Technology

vesicles said:

I think it's a bad idea to "replace all US technology", a very bad idea.

Many seem to have this misconception that, once you become independent and completely self-reliant, you will be strong and won't be held hostage by anyone else. At the surface, this may sound logical.

However, this approach is fatally wrong. Once you become totally self-reliant, you have succeeded in completely isolating yourself. Yes, you don't depend on anyone else. At the same time, no one will depend on you either. Then, why does anyone want/need to ally with you?

Keep in mind, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests. When you isolate yourself, no one shares any interests with you. then why does anyone want/need to side with you? How can you achieve anything when you are completely isolated with no friends?

Just imagine, if your opponent interacts with everyone and their economy is interlocked with all other nations' economy, damaging your opponent's economy will hurt everyone else. So what do you think the rest of the world will do when you try to hurt your opponent? Everyone will band together to crush you because what you want to do will hurt everyone. And even more importantly, crushing you won't hurt anyone else. So what do you think they will do?

What is happening now is actually a perfect example of why China needs to further expand their network of collaboration, importing as much as they can and exporting as much as they can. The more their economy is connected with the entire world, the more all others' interests will be aligned with the Chinese interests. When hurting China will hurt everyone else, China will be completely invincible. China no longer needs to tell other nations what to do. All of them will WANT to side with China for their own self-interests.

Just look at the current public hearing about the new $300 billion tariff. Nearly all the American business leaders band together to oppose the tariff. This only happens when China is doing business with American companies and using American technology.

Of course, you can close your doors and stop interacting with the world. We all know what will happen with isolation...

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manqiangrexue said:

It's one thing to reject the concept of comparative advantage, which also means to be at each other's mercy, but something else to isolate yourself; to reject comparative advantage should be every country's most glorious dream (and to the vast majority, it can never be anything but a dream), but to become isolated is everyone's nightmare. To conflate those two is to mistakenly assume that just because a country cannot hold you to an equal position of mercy and need that it will reject an alliance with you. In truth, people will want to be allies with you because you can provide them with technology and improve their society just like how Huawei sells its 5G tech to all these nations that couldn't hope to develop it on their own. They're not looking for comparative advantage with Huawei; they want to buy Huawei with their money. That should be the relationship that China aims for: to sell critical technologies to all of its partners so they can grow and flourish with those technologies. Now of course, they will want to sell something back so they don't get run into the ground by trade deficit with China and China should certainly reciprocate. China can send its low level manufacturing to these countries, China can buy ethnic foods like curries, durian, beer, etc...; China can offload a lot of non-essential business to these other countries while keeping all essential tech bustling within China itself. The idea would be to remain a huge trading nation with intertwined interests/economy and co-development, BUT China must be at no one's mercy and China must control all of its essential technologies. And I know this seems to be going for an unfair relationship but that's the relationship that a country of China's status should have; a small country would have to be deluded to think that it can hold China at its mercy in an equal position.

I'd once touched on China's potential; China has more STEM students and a higher population than the entire developed world combined. China also has a disproportionately higher per capita number of STEM students because Chinese society greatly values technology (in China, if your kid is not majoring in STEM, people just assume it's because he's too stupid to cut it in a STEM major LOL). When China becomes a developed nation, this massive talent will be like 4 United States working together and has the potential to actually dominate every tech sector. China can intertwine economically with anyone but it has reason to accept technological comparative advantage to no one.

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Arkboy said:

youtu.be/4_xQ5JisFuo?t=3028

youtu.be/2azpF5IUYQw?t=192

The US gov end-goal in this 'trade war' seems to be to break the backs of the Chinese so that they cannot ever hope to gain any comparative advantage. The Huawei ban and the arrest of the CFO was surgically done.

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vesicles said:

I think it's a bad idea to "replace all US technology", a very bad idea.

Many seem to have this misconception that, once you become independent and completely self-reliant, you will be strong and won't be held hostage by anyone else. At the surface, this may sound logical.

However, this approach is fatally wrong. Once you become totally self-reliant, you have succeeded in completely isolating yourself. Yes, you don't depend on anyone else. At the same time, no one will depend on you either. Then, why does anyone want/need to ally with you?

Keep in mind, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests. When you isolate yourself, no one shares any interests with you. then why does anyone want/need to side with you? How can you achieve anything when you are completely isolated with no friends?

Just imagine, if your opponent interacts with everyone and their economy is interlocked with all other nations' economy, damaging your opponent's economy will hurt everyone else. So what do you think the rest of the world will do when you try to hurt your opponent? Everyone will band together to crush you because what you want to do will hurt everyone. And even more importantly, crushing you won't hurt anyone else. So what do you think they will do?

What is happening now is actually a perfect example of why China needs to further expand their network of collaboration, importing as much as they can and exporting as much as they can. The more their economy is connected with the entire world, the more all others' interests will be aligned with the Chinese interests. When hurting China will hurt everyone else, China will be completely invincible. China no longer needs to tell other nations what to do. All of them will WANT to side with China for their own self-interests.

Just look at the current public hearing about the new $300 billion tariff. Nearly all the American business leaders band together to oppose the tariff. This only happens when China is doing business with American companies and using American technology.

Of course, you can close your doors and stop interacting with the world. We all know what will happen with isolation...

Click to expand...

vesicles said:

I think it's a bad idea to "replace all US technology", a very bad idea.

Many seem to have this misconception that, once you become independent and completely self-reliant, you will be strong and won't be held hostage by anyone else. At the surface, this may sound logical.

However, this approach is fatally wrong. Once you become totally self-reliant, you have succeeded in completely isolating yourself. Yes, you don't depend on anyone else. At the same time, no one will depend on you either. Then, why does anyone want/need to ally with you?

Keep in mind, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests. When you isolate yourself, no one shares any interests with you. then why does anyone want/need to side with you? How can you achieve anything when you are completely isolated with no friends?

Just imagine, if your opponent interacts with everyone and their economy is interlocked with all other nations' economy, damaging your opponent's economy will hurt everyone else. So what do you think the rest of the world will do when you try to hurt your opponent? Everyone will band together to crush you because what you want to do will hurt everyone. And even more importantly, crushing you won't hurt anyone else. So what do you think they will do?

What is happening now is actually a perfect example of why China needs to further expand their network of collaboration, importing as much as they can and exporting as much as they can. The more their economy is connected with the entire world, the more all others' interests will be aligned with the Chinese interests. When hurting China will hurt everyone else, China will be completely invincible. China no longer needs to tell other nations what to do. All of them will WANT to side with China for their own self-interests.

Just look at the current public hearing about the new $300 billion tariff. Nearly all the American business leaders band together to oppose the tariff. This only happens when China is doing business with American companies and using American technology.

Of course, you can close your doors and stop interacting with the world. We all know what will happen with isolation...

Click to expand...

AssassinsMace said:

Replace "all" US technology... yes. Isolation... no. Just because you replace US technology, it doesn't mean you're going at it alone. China should be working at creating an alternative to the US for the world. What are they going to do? Accuse China of doing in the future what they're doing right now? Trump shows he'll undermine US allies and he was voted-in by the American people into office. Trump can be gone by 6 years or less but it doesn't mean no one like Trump will ever be voted into office again. He might've even set the bar that low for the future. Do you want China and the world beholden by people who hide behind the rule of law while violating it at the same time?

China has to create its own standard in technology so the US can't turn it off. When everyone has an alternative, the US loses power, money, and influence. Now is the best time because everyone sees the US abusing its power. The world even US allies see the US as the antagonist in this trade war. In a world where US allies can see Trump turning on them at any moment. it'll cost the US a lot more to keep them in line. No one but China can really create its own standard. Its market is large enough where if people want to make money from the Chinese market, they'll have to follow its standard.

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Son (SoftBank-ARM) was speaking at his first public appearance in Taiwan, in a debate on future technology in a world dominated by the U.S. and China, the Group of Two. He had been invited by Foxconn founder and friend, Terry Gou, who this week stepped down as chairman of the iPhone assembler to run for the Taiwanese presidency.

Gou, speaking at the forum, suggested that a technological divide between the U.S. and China was now inevitable as Beijing and Washington fought a bitter trade war. He said the U.S. would define its own standards for next generation wireless technology, 5G, as China’s Huawei Technologies already dominated the global standard.

The Foxconn founder said he had been asked by the U.S. president to produce domestic technology in the company's Wisconsin factory.

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