Hong-Kong Protests

I say this again, it doesn't matter what this unrest is born out of. We are not doctors and psychiatrists, China is not a doctor and psychiatrist that has the duty to fix Hong Kong's problems. That's their own problem. China's duty is to safeguard the strategic interest of the Chinese nation. If China get boggled down to micromanage every little thing that's wrong with Hong Kong, it will actually become a strategic trap for China. The 1C2S system is as much a system for HKers' to get to maintain their "way-of-life", as it is a safeguard to guarantee that whatever element that might harm China is contained within the borders of Hong Kong.

As for “assets, reputation and strategy”, again, given the greater picture of civilizational contest between China and the West, the loss of asset is miniscule at most. As for reputation, reputation don't mean much in today's world, because the world populace has already awaken to the US media industrial complex. Even the POTUS are calling the MSM of his own empire "fake news". This is quite evident. One important example is the whole "Uighur Camp" issue that the western MSM tried very hard to rouse up in the last year or so. However, the result of that is that the majority of Muslim nations and population are skeptical and apathetic. So much so that the US are formally complaining in the UN that Muslims are hypocritical on this matter.

As for strategy, it really depends on how you perceive what Chinese strategy is. This is up to your own view. You think China's strategy is hurting greatly. I don't think so.

To be clear I think your proposed strategy would hurt China greatly, not that it is China's strategy.

When I said escalate, I mean abandoning their current strategy and adopt a radically different strategy. I don't mean escalating the level of violence and intensity under the current strategy. I didn't clearly specify what this "radically different strategy" is, because I don't know what they can come up with.

I will put a historical analogy in Chinese history. Imagine the state of Zhao, Wei, Han, or state of Chu during the middle to late Warring State era. Was it really in the interest of the Zhao, Wei and Han states to have a series of remarkable political-military reforms which resulted in them have advantageous military capabilities to terrorize the Qin state? No! Because Qin was already too big to be annihilated and conquered by these small Central Plain states, their successes only strengthened Qin's will to undergo radical reform. And history did witness what a monster of a powerful and violent state the Qin became, after undergoing that radical reform under Legalism.

What I do fear, is that too much perceived failure will radically shock the USA, such that they somehow undergo a radically revolutionary reform that turns them into a NAZI like Spartan/Qin militaristic state that is 1000 times more blood thirsty and efficient than they are now. If such a thing happens, woe is the world. So, I say enjoy the MSM and liberalism infested USA while we still have them.

I understood what you meant. That is a pessimist's outlook of a race to the bottom. I think both the US and HK are at crossroads where they can embark on brighter paths for both themselves and the world while China is already on such a path but all three face equally severe risks that can land each in their own serious internal strife (worse than now in the case of HK) before potentially lashing out externally.
 
China only has a duty to fix Hong Kong's problem when the HKers come to their sense and realize that their capitalist-based system is a pile of crap, and begs for change. In the mean time, I refuse to support any intervention from Mainland, neither in terms of money, nor in terms of law enforcement man power (troopers/PAP).

In the mean time, let them rot. We can take patriotic HKers as refugees, and provide them with great opportunities, protection and help. But no more wiping them HKer's ungrateful ass.

The shooting is only the beginning. We should wait, and let them get used to being shot at. This will take a few month. Their stupidity is the months of biased over-exaggerated negative MSM reporting on the HK police. That was meant to quickly forced the HK government to back down Ukraine style. But it has a downside: once the HK government held on, those negative reporting would become pointless and worse: it will become a desensitizing process that make the global populace apathetic.

This is also why the only MSM smearing campaign of "Uyghur Concentration Camp" is also fruitless. It was meant to destroy China-Muslim World relations. Yet, since the reporting are way too earnest and way too fanatical, they even go as far as saying "organ harvesting" without evidences. This made the Middle Eastern people skeptical and desensitized.

Bullshit! People do not change their mind, unless they first hit a wall which they can't get over, and become miserable and depressed. Right now, those HKers still has that "higher than thou" attitude, this means that they have not suffered enough. Why should China intervene unwanted? Supposed we did solve their problem, would they be happy and grateful? NO!

They will say their life was better before our intervention.
They will say they didn't need out help, and they could do it themselves.
They will say that everything good is all their own doing, the result of their own efforts, and China just stepped in to claim the credit.

You are laughably naive. The only way to change their mind, is for HK to rot into a third world dumpster, while Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and the rest of China became ultra-rich futuristic societies. The only way to change their mind, is let them live like third world beggars, detested by Mainlanders.

There is an underlying element of hatred and prejudice against HK as a whole in your attitude which leads you to suggest things that ultimately unnecessarily hurt HK and China in the process no matter how affordable to China the costs may seem, as there are both unnecessary absolute costs and even more valuable opportunity costs. I do agree with your thoughts up to a point before they are perverted by the hatred and prejudice.
 
Just look at how those Dalai Lhama jokers in-exile are saying about Tibet!

They say that they didn't need China to solve their serfdom problem, they could have ended serfdom themselves via western democracy.
They say that they didn't need China to develop their "country", they could have gotten western capital and technology to develop Tibet.

Ungrateful people will always be ungrateful, unless they are crushed by reality and the scorn of others. This is why i say China don't have a duty to fix Hong Kong. Let them rot, let their economy stagnate, let their society descend into chaos. Let them take away all of their own bragging points by their own hands. As long as it does not hurt the sovereignty of China, and the stability of the mainland, we have no obligation to make their life better when they will never recognize our efforts.

The Way of the King (王道) is simple. Reward those who deserves rewards, and punish those who deserves punishments. Confucius said if you requite resentment with kindness, with what then will you requite kindness with? (以德报怨,何以报德)

Let HK rot, if they so believe in their own system and detest China. Let them destroy their own stability, let them burn their own businesses, let them wreck their own public property. Let the US sanction Hong Kong government by taking away their special status of trade. I am laughing my ass off, when I heard that the US will drop their preferential treatment of Hong Kong in finance and trade. If they so believe in their British imposed Common Law-based politico-legal system, let them see how well their system will function if they keep doing things that deserves chastising from Beijing. We (China) don't even need to dirty our own hand.

This actually helps China, in the Way of the King (王道).

These issues illustrate China's relative lack of and less skillful use of soft power as well as relative underdevelopment in select fields and industries such as finance. Your hatred and prejudice against HK as a whole again compromise your thoughts. The current situation in HK is the perfect opportunity for HK but more importantly China to learn and improve its own skills and expertise by being more ambitious and creative in helping HK which is what it takes to build up soft power.
 
However, there is that rare case that HK government undergo an Ukraine style of revolution, and turns into a separatist government. This is very very unlikely. But this is actually a case that is easiest to deal with. If this became the case, the PAP and the PLA will swarm in, crush all separatist elements and install a war-time government and declare martial law in Hong Kong. This is perhaps the only viable "scrap 1C2S" outcome that I can imagine. However, this is only doable if the entire HK government somehow turned against China. As long as the HK government is still loyal to the central government, such an option is off the table.

Here I agree with you and we get close to the real problem which is HKers including much of the elite as well as the population need to break out of their colonial subject only focus on making money and need status affirmation "slave" mentality and step up constructively to the self-determination that China has given them since 1997 and develop their society leveraging present realities to create future ones of their own envisioning rather than dwelling on dictated delusions of the past. The problem is one can lead a horse to water but one can't make it drink. China is disciplined in seeing this goal through, though there are still things it can do to nudge HK along and HK does have the potential to accomplish this but it needs to grow a pair take some risks and change.
 
now I read
Hong Kong government to announce new law banning masks during public assemblies in bid to end months of protest violence
  • Source confirms city leader Carrie Lam’s de facto cabinet will convene a special meeting on Friday
  • If the Executive Council approves the plan to enact the anti-mask law, the government will make an announcement after the meeting
Updated: 10:00pm, 3 Oct, 2019
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Hong Kong’s embattled government is set to announce plans on Friday to ban people from wearing masks at public assemblies, as it struggles to get a grip on protest violence spiralling out of control, sources have told the Post.

Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor’s administration, under mounting pressure from its political allies to put a stop to nearly four months of anti-government protest violence, is expected to impose the ban through legislation by invoking a tough, colonial-era emergency law that has not been used in more than half a century.

Lam would hold a special meeting of her de facto cabinet, the Executive Council, on Friday morning before announcing the ban, according to sources on Thursday.

Prior approval by city’s legislature is not required, and it will only be able to amend or strike down the law after implementation.

Legal experts were quick to warn that invoking the emergency law would destroy due process and pave the way for more draconian regulations.

While opposition lawmakers warned that the mask ban would further polarise society, pro-establishment politicians welcomed it, suggesting it would show the city leader’s determination to curb chronic violence.

The Emergency Regulations Ordinance, introduced in 1922, grants the city’s leader the authority to “make any regulations whatsoever which he [or she] may consider desirable in the public interest” in case of “emergency or public danger”.

The last time the ordinance was invoked was back in 1967, when Hong Kong was wracked by citywide leftist riots.

If approved, the new law would take effect within a short time, one source said, as it had become a matter of urgency after radical activists marred China’s National Day celebrations on October 1 with a violent rampage across Hong Kong, which led to the first case of police shooting and wounding a protester using live ammunition.

“We cannot wait for the Legislative Council, which will only meet on October 16 at the earliest,” the source said.

Another source said the new law would clearly spell out the circumstances under which people would be banned from wearing masks at protests.

“The law will not impose a blanket ban on wearing masks and there will be exemptions, such as wearing surgical masks for medical reasons,” the source said.

Pro-Beijing lawmaker Elizabeth Quat, from the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), announced on Thursday the founding of a concern group to push for the anti-mask law, even as news of the impending ban was leaked to the media.

“As a lawmaker, I always believe legislation should be the last resort,” Quat said. “But at this critical moment, I believe an anti-mask law is one of the feasible ways to curb violence. There is no painless solution for now.”

The DAB suggested the government follow the model used by Canada, where the wearing of masks during riots or unlawful assemblies carries a maximum prison sentence of 10 years.

But a third source told the Post that Hong Kong’s anti-mask law, which was likely to be gazetted on Saturday, would entail a jail term of up to one year, or a fine of HK$25,000. It would apply to lawful assemblies as well.

Quat admitted that enforcing the new law would be easier said than done, but she likened it to the prohibition of drugs, saying, “That doesn’t mean no one will take drugs … but it will strengthen the deterrent effect and assist law enforcement in terms of burden of proof.”

Earlier, Hong Kong’s largest police group, the Junior Police Officers’ Association (JPOA), urged the government to adopt tougher measures by invoking the Emergency Regulations Ordinance, or impose a curfew under the existing Public Order Ordinance, to empower the thinly stretched force to better tackle the escalating social unrest.

JPOA chairman Lam Chi-wai said he supported the anti-mask law as it would give officers legal justification for handling masked protesters, although it could be challenging.

“It would be very irresponsible not to introduce the law just because police might experience difficulties while on duty,” he said.

One of Lam’s advisers in the Executive Council, former Bar Association chairman Ronny Tong Ka-wah, said while he still had reservations about invoking emergency powers, the anti-mask law could demonstrate the government’s determination to curb violence.

“If we do nothing, some would think the government is incapable and has no will to solve the crisis,” he said.

Tong revealed there had been calls for the government to invoke emergency powers to allow police to detain those arrested for up to 96 hours, from the current 48 hours – working in tandem with the anti-mask law, which was likely to see large numbers being detained.

Tian Feilong, a law professor at Beihang University in Beijing, agreed that the use of the emergency law would signify an escalation of official efforts to end the protests.

But legal sector lawmaker Dennis Kwok, of the opposition Civic Party, said: “Using the emergency law to make an anti-mask regulation will be the first step of turning Hong Kong into an authoritarian society ... It will allow the executive branch to erode the people’s freedoms without the legislature’s monitoring.”

Democratic Party chairman Wu Chi-wai agreed it would set a bad precedent.

“The government is just sweeping its problems under the carpet,” he said.

Jimmy Sham Tsz-kit, convenor of the Civil Human Rights Front, which has organised the biggest mass rallies since they were first triggered in June by the government’s now-withdrawn extradition law, warned that the mask ban would not stop people from taking to the streets.

“Repression will only make people more flexible and unpredictable when they protest,” he said.

At least 15 countries in North America or Europe have imposed legislation banning people from wearing masks, including the United States, Canada, Germany and France.
 
now I read
Capital outflows, canceled events in HK as violent protests spiral into chaos
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/10/3 21:32:47
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Hong Kong has reached a critical moment as investors moved capital out and events were canceled following the city's spiral from social unrest to riots

A recent report from Goldman Sachs showed that investors moved about $3 billion to $4 billion from Hong Kong to Singapore in August, which the investment bank described as "modest outflows" from Hong Kong, a major global financial hub.

The city, as Asia's business hub, trade-fair capital, and convention hub, has been engulfed in months of protests, which have grown violent. Countless clashes between black-clad rioters and frontline police officers; vandalism of public property, stores, banks, and ATM machines; and mass arson heavily affected business confidence of investors.

Analysts have pointed out in the report that Hong Kong's banking system still has ample liquidity in both Hong Kong dollars and foreign currencies. This set of data is unlikely, however, to allay investor concerns around outflows from the city.

On Thursday, the Hong Kong Tourism Board canceled the Hong Kong Cyclothon and Hong Kong Wine and Dine Festival this year amid ongoing social unrest, according to local media. Industry representatives said the cancelation of such events would further deteriorate Hong Kong's image, and cause damaging ripple effects.

The number of attendees to the Hong Kong watch fair reportedly has slumped to double digits last month, and the smaller scale Asia seafood exhibition was canceled as violent protests have gripped the streets every weekends.

Several major economic indicators show that Hong Kong's economy continued suffering as retail sales slumped to historic lows in August, and the number of tourist arrivals has dropped. Hotels and restaurants have created more discounts to attract customers while small and medium-sized businesses, as well as stores, lobby landlords to reduce rental fees amid this challenging time.

As sales dwindled, retail rents in both core and non-core areas declined in the third quarter of 2019, led by a 7-percent drop in Causeway Bay which has been hardest hit from declining tourism and interruptions to business due to social unrest, media reported on Thursday.

With tourist arrivals expected to remain muted in the fourth quarter, the industry forecasts rents in Causeway Bay to fall between 11 percent and 13 percent for 2019.
 
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