Well i interpreted that as meaning the 3rd J-36. I have doubts about the existence of the 3rd 6th gen allegedly seen last July since we've seen absolutely nothing about it since, probably just a fairly elaborate PS.
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
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It seems fairly unlikely to me for there to be a 3rd 6th gen fighter. The only reason I could see it happening is that the CMC wants to give Xi'an some work designing fighters as well so all 3 major plants have their own practice creating teams for developing and fielding fighters. Perhaps a dedicated carrier fighter, or a mainstay fighter to pair with the J-36 that seems to be the 'high' in a hi-lo mix if the J-XDS was the dedicated carrier fighter.
H-20 seems rather unlikely this year IMO. The J-36 was the big, impressive project and that had a fair bit of chatter leading up to it including things like their engine count and rather strange shape. If the H-20 was finalize and was about to appear I'd expect some chatter regarding some of the specific unique aspects of the aircraft, perhaps leaked by AVIC or the MSS directly to test and track information dispersion routes and so they can shore up or at least manage information security for future leaks. I doubt a project this big would stay siloed up to this point.
Perhaps, but also it's not like we had commercial satellite images released to us of J-36 or J-XDS during their initial taxi runs and first flights etc.
That said I am not yet rating this too highly. If there were some more noise from the other established folks, maybe.
Is there a polymarket for this one yet? If not we should make one
Interesting correction regarding this rumour: Allegedly this claim is not related for the H-20 but „I meant to say that the third prototype of the J-36 has gone through multiple taxiing tests.“
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let the 3rd prototype have the 1st prototypes exhausts
Here is a strange rumour from 约克：水分子这个编号没有了。"The H-20 (water molecule, H₂O --> H-20) designation has been dropped"
To be clear, if true, this would be only a naming/designation change. The project itself still very much exists.
I’d treat this with high uncertainty, but it’s somewhat interesting to think about. If it turns out to be wrong, the impact should be minimal, since it's just the name. It was said on yesterday's stream with 西葛西造舰
To be clear, if true, this would be only a naming/designation change. The project itself still very much exists.
I’d treat this with high uncertainty, but it’s somewhat interesting to think about. If it turns out to be wrong, the impact should be minimal, since it's just the name. It was said on yesterday's stream with 西葛西造舰
China kinda follows a decade approach to name it weapon systems most of the time. Zbl 08, type 05 came in 2000-2009 time frame. The type-95 assault rifle came in early 90s and now the type 191 rifle came in 2019. Then another example could be yj-12 and yj-18 coming in 2010-2019 timeframe. There numerous such examples.
For planes you have j-20, y-20 all coming in 2020s. H-20 was also supposed to come as part of the same generation. But it got delayed significantly.
I do see that its kinda logical to name h-20 to something like h-30 or h-36 now that the official induction will likely slip to 2030s. But again, these are very vague and inconsistent naming patterns so anything could happen.
You don't typically change the designation of a project unless there has been major changes in detail, or completely reworked. If true this could mean big implications for the project.
Unlike with the Army, no known new designation system has been implemented for the Airforce, so it's not as simple as changing the name to conform to new standards.