H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I think we can all basically ignore any discussion about a supersonic H-X as not being part of the real situation. All rumours point to a flying wing, and have done so consistently for quite a few years now. Even without the logical arguments for why a flying wing fits China's requirements so much better than a supersonic bomber, we have all rumours saying flying wing and none suggesting a supersonic bird.
Agree.

At this point, even a B-70 in excess of Mach 3 and at 80-90,000 feet would be vulnerable...though it would still be a powerful force to compliment a stealth force.

But only if you have enough.

20 B-2s coupled with 30 B-70s is simply not enough if a major war ever broke out.

Besides, today, speed really starts to count when it becomes hypersonic...that's where the speed argument has moved now.

So, I agree that the Chinese are going to field their own unique, stealthy flying wing bomber, with very deent range. And I be they build a lot more than 20 of them before all is said and done.
 

weig2000

Captain
I generally agree.

Although I'd hazard to say that I expect H-X to be more similar to B-2 in terms of size, but that it will likely have been developed with the intention of being more sustainable and affordable than B-2 was, using the same kind of newer stealth technologies and advancements in other recent stealth projects. These technologies may not be as mature as what would be fielded on B-21, but I imagine the Air Force would have made every effort to reduce the maintenance requirements and increase availability of H-X as part of the design process, to avoid B-2's key pitfalls.

I also expect H-X to also be more future proof than B-2, and integrate certain EW/ECM and possibly cyber capabilities in the future as well, as with B-21.



Also, I think we can all basically ignore any discussion about a supersonic H-X as not being part of the real situation. All rumours point to a flying wing, and have done so consistently for quite a few years now. Even without the logical arguments for why a flying wing fits China's requirements so much better than a supersonic bomber, we have all rumours saying flying wing and none suggesting a supersonic bird.

I agree with you. I tried to start at the highest level requirements because they would be relatively easier to understand and discuss to achieve some consensus (or areas of disagreements).

What you pointed out (cost, better maintainability, EW/ECM, or even some network-centric capabilities if I may add), I consider them second-level requirements, likely to be more speculative to some people's comfort given that we don't have much information.

That being said, I agree they should be part of the requirements for H-20/H-XX. And China should be capable of developing the related technologies, if they don't already have some of those technologies.
 

Preux

Junior Member
I suspect that the H-6K's oft-quoted full combat radius is somewhat misleading, as there are no realistic prospect within the 5000km - 5500km radius of H-6K + KD-20 at the more extreme range envelop which would let an unescorted bomber of H-6K's capability venture that far. The oft-cited target of Guam, for example, would necessitate poor old Badger crossing a veritable gauntlet of USAF and USN assets before reaching notional firing stations, which drastically reduces its chance of success. One may cross reference how B-52s and Tu-95s are used to get some inkling of that.

That means realistically, any strike mission would have to be conducted under heavy fighter escort*, and that means the effective combat radius of the H-6K is perhaps much closer to 1,500 against near-peer opponents rather than 3,500.

Which isn't to say its range isn't useful, it allows for greater loiter time and basing far inside the well-protected Chinese interior within the best fortified bases, but under most realistic scenarios the 5500km radius reaching out to Guam and Northern Australia are theoretical exercise at best.

*There is one other way where relatively slow and lumbering bombers have a chance to penetrate, but that involves mass usage of nuclear missiles - that was the SAC's doctrine - but it obviously doesn't apply to China.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I suspect that the H-6K's oft-quoted full combat radius is somewhat misleading, as there are no realistic prospect within the 5000km - 5500km radius of H-6K + KD-20 at the more extreme range envelop which would let an unescorted bomber of H-6K's capability venture that far. The oft-cited target of Guam, for example, would necessitate poor old Badger crossing a veritable gauntlet of USAF and USN assets before reaching notional firing stations, which drastically reduces its chance of success. One may cross reference how B-52s and Tu-95s are used to get some inkling of that.

That means realistically, any strike mission would have to be conducted under heavy fighter escort*, and that means the effective combat radius of the H-6K is perhaps much closer to 1,500 against near-peer opponents rather than 3,500.

Which isn't to say its range isn't useful, it allows for greater loiter time and basing far inside the well-protected Chinese interior within the best fortified bases, but under most realistic scenarios the 5500km radius reaching out to Guam and Northern Australia are theoretical exercise at best.

*There is one other way where relatively slow and lumbering bombers have a chance to penetrate, but that involves mass usage of nuclear missiles - that was the SAC's doctrine - but it obviously doesn't apply to China.

If the H6K go through the Bashi Channel, where do the gauntlet of USAF assets come from?
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Well H-X probably isn't going to look anything remotely like B-1B or Tu-160 at all, so I have a feeling the Chinese military wants something a bit more survivable instead of merely a big and long range bomb or missile truck.

If Russia did somehow offer Tu-160s to China I imagine they would probably be politely rejected, as they would be white elephants, and maintenance costs would probably be astronomical, even if we ignore costs of upgrading them to PLA standards and actually producing the aircraft to begin with.

China definitely asked for Tu-160 a while back and was rejected. Maybe that will no longer be the case in they ask again, but something of that capability would definitely not be white elephants. Anyways, I have put up a blog entry, but basically the range and payload of the bomber we can basically figure out based on China's definition of LRS bomber. As for survivability, ELINT capabilites and such, we'd have to wait and see. I do think China would like to build a subsonic stealth bomber. But how capable it will turn out to be, that's a different story.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I reckon a Chinese request for the Tu-160 would be rejected again. It's a strategic capability and if China-Russia relations take a downturn, it could certainly be used against Russia.

In comparison, I think a Chinese request for Yasen nuclear submarine tech would be looked upon favourably.

In the event of a downturn in China-Russia relations, quieter Chinese nuclear submarines pose no additional strategic threat to Russia. They already share a long land border plus China has a bunch of road-mobile nuclear missiles anyway.

But there a lot of benefits in terms of diverting the attention of the US military from Russia/Europe to China/Asia.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I reckon a Chinese request for the Tu-160 would be rejected again. It's a strategic capability and if China-Russia relations take a downturn, it could certainly be used against Russia.

In comparison, I think a Chinese request for Yasen nuclear submarine tech would be looked upon favourably.

In the event of a downturn in China-Russia relations, quieter Chinese nuclear submarines pose no additional strategic threat to Russia. They already share a long land border plus China has a bunch of road-mobile nuclear missiles anyway.

But there a lot of benefits in terms of diverting the attention of the US military from Russia/Europe to China/Asia.
I would be surprised if Russia sold or had license built in Yasen SSNs in China.

They are a very potent vessel, and with their VLS tubes can indeed launch nuclear cruise missiles and become a strategic danger to Russia.

We'll have to wait and see...but I have to say that it would surprise me for Russia to either offer, or respond favorably to a request for it.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I would be surprised if Russia sold or had license built in Yasen SSNs in China.

They are a very potent vessel, and with their VLS tubes can indeed launch nuclear cruise missiles and become a strategic danger to Russia.

We'll have to wait and see...but I have to say that it would surprise me for Russia to either offer, or respond favorably to a request for it.

That logic doesn't work.

Remember that China already has land-based TELs and cruise missiles that could be launched with a nuclear warhead.

And if Russia is the target, the land-based option is cheaper and more survivable. Plus they can cover more of the Russia landmass than the submarine option realistically can.

A look at the map makes it obvious that submarine launched missiles would have to cross the majority of mainland China in order to reach Russia, so it's better just to put the missiles on the Chinese mainland anyway.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Plus here is a thought.

If both China and Russia have Yasen-like submarines, in a conflict scenario, it will be difficult to tell them apart until a better submarine signature emerges.

And you really don't want to shoot at the wrong submarine and start yet another war.

So it introduces another level of complexity to the tactical picture and makes both the Russian and Chinese submarines more survivable
 
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